Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

vincecate wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:38 am I have seen posts after 2192 but then they have gone away. This is a test post...

The confusion occurs because some people post messages and then, for
reasons unknown to me, delete them.

John wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:16 am

vincecate wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:38 am I have seen posts after 2192 but then they have gone away. This is a test post...

The confusion occurs because some people post messages and then, for
reasons unknown to me, delete them.

Oh, ok. Good to know it is not a problem with the site.

John wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:47 am So, are we crashing this morning? [-590 at 8:46 am]

I think a possible scenario is the market goes down in choppy fashion a bit more, then a brief counter trend rally (up), then the crash is in October.

Thinking about this in generational terms, the greatest number of Boomers were born between 1957 and 1961. Those were the peak birth years until recently (2007 or so). Those people are now between the ages of 58 and 63, approaching retirement, and they have a problem. Not too many of them have enough money to retire and even if they do they are aware that inflation could eat up their savings, as the Fed has stated they are very determined to create at least 2% inflation and there is a lot of talk about inflation going even higher, much higher. Probably a lot of them got out of their stocks during the move down earlier this year. I think it is likely that at least some of these people will decide to get back into stocks in the next few weeks after a further dip in the hope that stocks will help them fight inflation through their retirement years. There have to be thousands of phone calls to financial advisors happening every week from worried people in this age bracket wondering what to do. The advisors will tell them to remain invested and not deviate from the plan. If they panicked out of stocks earlier this year, the advisors will just say that they were told not to panic and to stick with the plan to be in stocks for the long run because they always go up. At some point in the next few weeks, this may be the source of a brief counter trend rally. Perhaps it will go back to 3300 on the S&P; I don't know. Then I think from there it will crash. If there is a crash and the stock market breaks the March low, these Boomers will throw in the towel so at least they can not starve to death during retirement. After that, they will never own stocks or speak to a financial advisor for the rest of their lives.

This is just one possible scenario, but I think it has decent odds of happening this year.

** 25-Sep-2020 World View: TV pundits on the price of tulips

John wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:47 am > So, are we crashing this morning? [-590 at 8:46 am]

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:35 pm > I think a possible scenario is the market goes down in choppy
> fashion a bit more, then a brief counter trend rally (up), then
> the crash is in October.

It's really weird listening to the commentary of the tv "experts."
Will the market go up or down if Biden wins? Will the market go up or
down if Trump wins? Will the market go up or down if there's a new
bailout package? Or no bailout package.

There's no way that the "experts" can give a meaningful answer to
these questions. These people are not experts in economics or in
markets. These people are experts in reading investor mania and
delusions. So we can imagine a CNBC pundit on tv in 1636 being asked
the question, "Will the price of tulips go up or down if there's a
heavy rainstorm? What about if it snows instead -- will the price of
tulips go up or down."

So that pundit could go out and survey his banking and business
friends, and ask them if they expect the price of tulips to go up or
down. Nobody really has the vaguest clue what's actually going to
happen, but they're not paid to know what's actually going to happen.
They're paid to express an opinion on whether the price of tulips will
go up or not, even if the reasoning behind that opinion is total
bullshit. But that's perfectly ok. It's having an opinion that
matters. The bullshit is irrelevant.

And of course that's where we are today.

The best punditry, of course, is an opinion that can't be held against
you if it turns out to be wrong. So a "choppy market" and a "brief
countertrend" is expert punditry. However, you end with a "crash in
October." Whew! If you're right and the market crashes, everyone
will hate you. If you're wrong, then you'll be reminded. That's very
dangerous punditry, even from an expert like yourself.

John wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:16 pm ** 25-Sep-2020 World View: TV pundits on the price of tulips
However, you end with a "crash in October." Whew!

The statement "We're all Keynesians now." was attributed to Nixon after he ended the international gold standard in 1971. In doing so, Nixon laid the foundations for the current reality that "We're all gamblers now."

To be a gambler, you have to create scenarios and calculate odds, choose scenarios, and follow through with them knowing full well they are likely to be wrong. Many savers for retirement throw their hands up in exasperation and farm the task out to financial advisors. And we know those financial advisors are pretty consistent in the advice they are giving, so that helps. In my opinion, it's highly unlikely that advice will be profitable in the long run.

As an aside to the above paragraph, the financial media places credence on the gamblers who "get it right", speaking as if it is possible to win at this game if you know what you're doing, which it is not, because it's not possible to know what you are doing except in the vaguest terms. It's what I call the "lottery economy" mentality.

As implied at the bottom of my post (and other places here) I know I'm gambling. I've been placed in a position by circumstances and the Fed where I am pretty much forced to gamble with my savings for lack of any decent alternative.

It's my belief that only those who bet on a crash, are able to withstand the bubble before the crash happens, and are able to ride the crash wave all the way down to the bottom stand half a chance of being solvent through their retirement years. That opinion is certainly not within the range of opinions allowed on financial TV, which is a subset of the financial industry spawned when Nixon said "We're all Keynsians now." All of that is going to go away and it will be replaced by harsh circumstances for the majority of the population.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:35 pm At some point in the next few weeks, this may be the source of a brief counter trend rally. Perhaps it will go back to 3300 on the S&P; I don't know.

The S&P got back to 3306 this afternoon, but not in "the next few weeks". To properly be a pundit, it's necessary to give price targets, but not price targets together with time. That way the pundit can say that it got back to 3300 just as forecast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_J7B0O6qNI
you have a target on your face
your done middle class

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/vid ... -wont-clap

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZ0h6gA ... e=youtu.be
They do not even pretend to even pretend to care about fines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch6JoHv3AqU

eighty percent cash - cracks mid week - fear is the mind killer - you will bail out criminals and have until their necks snap -

US is bankrupt, the debt to GDP is nearly 140% and rising. The debt is already unservicable and that's why the only bidder in the market is the FED. The only way the US could hope to even maintain this level of debt would be to become more productive and that according to congress and the FED requires more stimulus. Failure to provide stimulus will result in rising yields and the FED will be forced to buy more debt or let the debt default. Either way on that scenario the dollar will crash. If the markets get what they want and more stimulus is forthcoming then the dollar debasement will continue. In any scenario we can see that the dollar weakness will persist. The only scenario where the dollar would strengthen would be if the FED would let the markets and economy collapse and the private sector take massive haircuts on unservicable and defaulting corporate debt but we don't need to worry ourselves about that scenario. Powell isn't about to become Volcker. Hes owned just like the rest since the District of Columbia Organic Act of 1871. You still consider thought that the Internecine slaughter called the Civil War was about the States.
We will return to the conversation in 2024 since it matters not what you consider appropriate.
I will defer to Johns deflation thesis in a few managed dislocation for now in commodity maps.
What you actually need will inflate and has.