Re: Financial topics
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:50 pm
Generational theory, international history and current events
https://www.gdxforum.com/forum/
Sometimes I worry about you.
If I was Biden and I believed this unfortunate prophecy I would give the election back to Trump. Much of it could in fact come to pass: Economic and debt woes, large numbers of Trump supporters believing the election was stolen with ensuring violence with the left wing. Etc
richard5za wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:14 amIf I was Biden and I believed this unfortunate prophecy I would give the election back to Trump. Much of it could in fact come to pass: Economic and debt woes, large numbers of Trump supporters believing the election was stolen with ensuring violence with the left wing. Etc
Mnuchin’s Fed move is like stripping Titanic of its lifeboats, economist says
PUBLISHED FRI, NOV 20 20206:59 AM EST UPDATED FRI, NOV 20 20207:33 AM EST
Elliot Smith
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s decision to allow key pandemic relief programs to expire is like stripping lifeboats from the Titanic, according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
Mnuchin announced Thursday that he will not extend the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending programs that used Congress’ CARES Act funds beyond Dec. 31. The move is expected to drastically reduce the central bank’s ability to shore up the financial system.
The announcement comes as many areas of the country reimplement partial lockdown restrictions in a bid to contain the resurgent coronavirus. The national seven-day average of daily new infections has reached 161,165, according to a CNBC analysis of John Hopkins University data, 26% higher than a week ago. California has ordered a 10 p.m. curfew across much of the state, while New York City has announced the closure of schools.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday, Weinberg suggested that it was difficult to find an “economic rationale” for the decision, with millions of Americans still receiving unemployment benefits, regional Fed indicators softening and further shutdowns likely on the horizon.
“I don’t think there is a good economic or public health or social reason to explain why they want to cut these programs at this particular time, so it has kind of got to be politics, doesn’t it?” Weinberg said.
The Fed and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have voiced public opposition to Mnuchin’s decision, the latter suggesting it “prematurely and unnecessarily ties the hands” of President-elect Joe Biden’s incoming administration.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/weinber ... boats.html“In the United States, at the end of December, people are going to lose their protection from evictions, they are going to lose income support, they are going to lose forbearance on student loans, and as we fall into this fiscal valley of support for people, we are going to see failures, and those failures as we learned in 2008 can create problems within the financial sector,” he said, adding that the crisis was still in its “early days.”
Yes, indeed. But I'm sure you will accept that this is an unusual method of arriving at an economic forecast.Mnuchin’s Fed move is like stripping Titanic of its lifeboats, economist says
Yes, and that includes my longer term stock market forecasts of the past few years, though I do not consider myself an expert. But my very short term forecasts (up to an hour or so) tend to be very accurate. Oddly, while most would have the opinion that short term market movements are noise or, even if they're not, they're not able to be forecast, my ability to forecast those movements is about 80 percent.richard5za wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:06 am This person then compared the actual result some years later to the forecast and found that 85% of experts were less accurate than a dart throwing chimp!
I look at all of it. But the main reason I would post something from Greer is that his forecasts over the years have been as accurate as anybody's I know of (probably much better than a dart throwing monkey), and this particular forecast reads like a generational crisis, in particular the "multiple converging events" mentioned here. How he arrived at them I don't know.richard5za wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:06 am But I'm sure you will accept that this is an unusual method of arriving at an economic forecast.