Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

They struck hot iron on 13m criminal network and the stupidity of voters starting to take the to United Kaliphate as
Arafat conveyed. The piggyback globalist are the fools they actually are since 1989.
As we noted the fools want another 10 million imported locusts.
As was forwarded the idiots have assured another 180,000 to be kicked to the curb unable for SALT.

State and local taxes.

But if the salt lose its savour, wherewith shall it be salted?
It is good for nothing any more but to be cast out,
and to be trodden on by men. Mathew 5

Run by idiots for fools. Swamp open border fools as we are mocked by CRT and BLM idiots with uniparty stern letters.

[vincecate]

Hi Vince, good to hear from you and to know your property tax has been eliminated.

Thanks.

So often before a crash there is one last run up. Feels like that to me. If this goes up long enough that
I can get some cash together (few weeks) I will probably buy some more puts. I still have
some that are live till January but would be good to get more and further out.

What is your best guess on when it will finally crash?

[Higgenbotham]

As I pointed out last year, they trotted out permabull "Wrong Way Ed" Yardeni 3 weeks before the January 2022 stock market high, when he said stocks will be up as far as the eye can see. This year they did it only 8 days before the top. They will trot the permabears out near the bottom.

Economy
Baby boomers have been America's secret weapon for fending off recession
Filip De Mott
May 22, 2024, 9:42 AM CDT

Talks of a looming recession are flaring across Wall Street, but the savings war chest of baby boomers has staved off a US downturn.

That's according to Ed Yardeni, a market veteran who broke down why he believed recessionary doomsayers were misguided. Among his main listed factors are the generation's rising spending habits, amplified by a transition into retirement.

"Most importantly, the baby boom generation has started to retire with a record $76 trillion in net worth," he wrote for the Financial Times. "They are spending on restaurants, cruises, traveling and healthcare. All these services industries have been expanding their payrolls, thus boosting real incomes, and fuelling more spending."

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-rece ... ing-2024-5

'We're in a slow-motion melt-up': 3 reasons why the bull market in stocks will continue, according to Ed Yardeni
Matthew Fox
Jul 8, 2024, 9:33 AM CDT

The stock market will continue to hit record highs driven by reasonable valuations and continued earnings growth, according to Ed Yardeni.
He highlighted AI as a reason to remain bullish on stocks as the benefits spread to more companies.
"The broad market is not overvalued, in our opinion and could go up on a combination of better earnings and a higher valuation multiple."

The record rally in the stock market isn't close to being over, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... oom-2024-7

[Higgenbotham]

Hi Vince, good to hear from you and to know your property tax has been eliminated.

Thanks.

So often before a crash there is one last run up. Feels like that to me. If this goes up long enough that
I can get some cash together (few weeks) I will probably buy some more puts. I still have
some that are live till January but would be good to get more and further out.

What is your best guess on when it will finally crash?

I don't think we've hit the low of this leg quite yet. Maybe in a few days. After that, I suspect some kind of rally but I don't think they will get it to a new high. Although they were able to in 2007 in a similar situation from that July high and August low.

[Higgenbotham]

Economy
Baby boomers have been America's secret weapon for fending off recession
Filip De Mott
May 22, 2024, 9:42 AM CDT

Talks of a looming recession are flaring across Wall Street, but the savings war chest of baby boomers has staved off a US downturn.

That's according to Ed Yardeni, a market veteran who broke down why he believed recessionary doomsayers were misguided. Among his main listed factors are the generation's rising spending habits, amplified by a transition into retirement.

"Most importantly, the baby boom generation has started to retire with a record $76 trillion in net worth," he wrote for the Financial Times. "They are spending on restaurants, cruises, traveling and healthcare. All these services industries have been expanding their payrolls, thus boosting real incomes, and fuelling more spending."

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-rece ... ing-2024-5

Let's look at the reality of retirement.

You have to psychologically adjust to realistic financial expectations

Lavish dinners at your favorite restaurants, spur-of-the-moment trips to the casino, and weekends spent with friends add up, quickly.

While you may have a budget for retirement, it’s often surprising how fast you’ll blow through that if you don’t make a psychological change. The realization that you need to live frugally and within your means may take some time to get used to, especially that first year.

It’s common to go through a bit of an emotional “why can’t I live like everyone else” period. It can be emotionally draining, but adjusting creates a better path forward.

You become very aware that vacations are expensive

Even if you’ve planned significantly for traveling each year, it’s quickly obvious that frequent trips will push your budget.

You may also be more conscious of how much you’re spending while traveling, but there are ways to travel more without spending too much.

It’s hard to tell yourself you don’t have to go back to work

That first year is overwhelming when it comes to spending. Every dollar you have to spend that wasn’t in your pre-designed budget will feel painful to hand over. You’ll likely feel like you need to go back to work.

Instead of a full-time job, if you really feel like you need to work a bit longer, find an option that’s flexible and doesn’t require all of your time such as finding a side hustle.

It could be true that going back to work is good for you (mentally and financially), but before you make that decision, try to focus on altering the way you view money and spend it.

https://financebuzz.com/first-year-of-r ... endedreads

For a certain select few, retirement spending may increase because those few may have somewhere on the order of $5 million plus saved and will have more time to spend it, as they will no longer be working 60 plus hour weeks. This would probably be less than 2% of the retirement population. The other 98% will be tightening their belts in retirement.

Can You Guess How Many Retire With A $5 Million Nest Egg?
Jeannine Mancini
Mon, May 13, 2024

Data from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, based on the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, reveals that a mere 0.1% of retirees manage to accumulate over $5 million in their retirement accounts, whereas only 3.2% amass over $1 million.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/guess-ma ... 11124.html

Only a small fraction of retirees — around 8% to 10% — have successfully saved $1 million or more.

https://www.benzinga.com/money/fam

Estimates vary, but my guess is the threshold at which increased spending would occur for the first few years after retirement is well over $1 million saved.

[Higgenbotham]

After that, I suspect some kind of rally but I don't think they will get it to a new high. Although they were able to in 2007 in a similar situation from that July high and August low.

Let's look at what is different from 2007. There's a lot but the most important thing in my mind is the valuation metrics Hussman highlights. These are more comparable right now to the 1929 and 2000 tops.

So I've reduced my short position from the high when I had my whole account in the SDS double inverse fund, but only by about 8 percent.

Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240721/





Based on these numbers being approximately right, my idea is to stay in the SDS while moving in and out somewhat with extreme short term fluctuations as long as it is tracking the S&P approximately (which it is) and paying a dividend. Probably I will reduce the position 1-2% on average every 100 points down for the time being.

[Higgenbotham]

Also, accounting for withdrawals, my account is only at a 2% gain since the January 2022 top in the S&P of 4818 with the S&P currently at 5294. That would imply my account will be down over that time period if the S&P rises just 1.05% or so from here. And I was sitting at a loss basically all through the island top recently as the S&P moved through the highest level of the bull market. But I'm comfortable doing it at these extremes and don't want to think about it too much.

[aeden]

It is on my watchlist as is vix/vix3, svis, st5w in trading view for direction movements.
We are doing calls and duration swing trades. We are currently not selling and the rest of the tbills come off today.
Derivative funds are unclear who blew up their book over the weekend.
Sweeps, ours are only interested in direct cash flow as retail and institutional moves are trended in the dumb money indicator.
As we noted m13 looted them stupid under they cleared up that breech on the earning call reg compliance puter.

If/then svix moved around $33 we may consider sweeps for short positions.
We noted quant ORB maps for initial sweeps then buffet indicator to safe time also.

Anyways. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20240801/

[vincecate]

Let's look at what is different from 2007. There's a lot but the most important thing in my mind is the valuation metrics Hussman highlights. These are more comparable right now to the 1929 and 2000 tops.

So I've reduced my short position from the high when I had my whole account in the SDS double inverse fund, but only by about 8 percent.

Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240721/

It does seem like now is a particularly reasonable time to bet on it going down.

Thanks.

[Higgenbotham]

I went direct to the source to find the JD Vance "childless cat ladies" comment.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6265796735001

This is not going to go away, in my opinion, and unless there is a serious recession taking hold between now and election day that Trump can pin on the Democrats, it could cost him the election.

These are the reasons why:

1. There are stereotypical childless cat ladies and he had probably lost most of those votes anyway.

2. But then there are childless women who for various reasons - infertility, lack of partner, etc. - that may seem out of their control are also childless. A lot of these women are white. Some of them will look at Vance, who married an Indian, and say to themselves, "If Vance had married a white woman like me there would be one less childless cat lady." Yes, I realize that is not logical but it is female logic.

3. Also, there are many women who were afraid they might become a childless cat lady but didn't. Heck, I know a woman who had cats and had just one child that was born when she was 35. I wouldn't dare ask but would guess she may be none too pleased with the comment.

4. Then there are the friends and relatives of childless cat ladies who think their childless cat lady friend or relative is a pretty good person, maybe a better person than JD Vance for having said what he said. I can recall a childless old poodle lady who was my realtor that I was very fond of. Due to not having children she had the extra time to make great contributions to the community. She was a stalwart at city council meetings hammering on city staff for accountability. She went through every line item in the city budget.