Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

The market was higher overnight, and therefore my loss on shorts increased from the amount shown above. I increased shorts again this morning.

In the back of my mind is the fact that the market completed a massive bull run on February 9, 1966, a Fibonacci 55 years ago, with that 55 years broken up into a Fibonacci 34 years to the 2000 top and a Fibonacci 21 years from the 2000 top to this current mania. These relationships are not exact to phi and just for completeness I will probably next calculate the exact date for a phi relationship. Problem there is the various indexes made their highs on different dates in 2000, so doing even that is not exact, but I'll start with the S&P because that will give the furthest date out in time.

February 9, 1966 (Dow top) to March 24, 2000 (S&P 500 top) = 12,462 days
12,462 days times phi = 20,164 days
20,164 days from February 9, 1966 = April 25, 2021

February 9, 1966 (Dow top) to January 14, 2000 (Dow top) = 12,402 days
12,402 days times phi = 20,067 days
20,067 days from February 9, 1966 = January 18, 2021

So far the top in the Dow has been...January 21, 2021. The Dow did not exceed the January 21, 2021 high yesterday.

One thing I find interesting about manias is, similar to what Richard said, during the mania nobody (and I mean virtually nobody who is involved) steps back to really look at the market in any objective fashion. You would think this calculation would be at least somewhere in the financial press and the blogs. But I can almost guarantee that you will not find it anywhere because I've done thorough searches for such calculations in the past (even ones that worked with an extremely high degree of accuracy) and was unable to find them. Most will say that it doesn't matter. If it doesn't, then why does every software tool have short term Fibonnaci fans and stuff embedded in it and people actually use this stuff and sometimes it actually works? By the way, when I trade, I never use any indicators. The only thing I look at is the daily chart and the 1 minute chart.

To give an example of such a calculation,

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:38 am SPX

1044 = key gap level during 2008 crash
666 = 2009 low
1422 = 1044 + (1044 - 666) = spring 2012 high

I calculated that level before the Spring 2012 high using the exact levels in the S&P (666.79 and whatever the exact 1044 level was). The exact number was 1422.21. The Spring 2012 high was 1422.38.

When the market hit that level (on April 2, 2012) I had the S&P order book open and watched it to see if any of the institutions or funds were selling big near or at the level. Nothing unusual was going on. It was very quiet at that top and it passed without any notice I could see. I searched very thoroughly for any mention of those levels and found nothing.

** 05-Feb-2021 World View: Madness and folly

richard5za wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:32 am > So we have a new all time high close for the S&P 500 at 3871.74
> which puts 3900 in reach today.

> That Markowski prediction that John posted recently has only one
> day left to start the correction or along with many predictions
> from me and others on this site, it will remain a sensible view
> "rubbished" by insanity. Perhaps its just a timing matter?

> If Markowski's prediction does come true then the 3871.74 all time
> high will be the close that historians write about. The stories
> will probably start with 1929 continue with 2000 and then mainly
> discuss 2021. After all if you create a 30 year chart from 1990 to
> current date it looks like a trumpet shaped bubble that has formed
> over 30 years with 2000 and 2008 just part of the overall 1990
> to2021 trumpet bubble. How did they not see this financial
> historians will ask?

> When I was first introduced to the 1929 crash (as an economics
> major at university) through the writings of John Kenneth
> Galbraith I didn't understand the psychology of a bubble and how
> it entraps otherwise intelligent people, the group madness of
> which Friedrich Nietzsche speaks, and I wondered how the investors
> of 1929 could have got themselves into such a mess.

I just checked, and that article containing Markowski's prediction is
still up. By Monday, Markowski will be recognized either as a total
genius or a total idiot.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/markow ... ince-1871/

If you're talking about psychology and madness, it's hard to find any
aspect of today's world that isn't full of madness. You have
full-scale genocide going on in China, as bad as the world has seen
since the 1930s. There are huge refugee flows around the world.
America is being governed by "big tech" companies, and the country is
moving in the direction of a Stalinist dictatorship. Stock prices are
at astronomically high valuations, and global debt is unsustainable in
the hundreds of trillions.

I find the madness of today's world overwhelming. To say that it's a
world that is senseless to me is an understatement. I can understand
how King Solomon saw a world of madness and folly and chaos.

Generational Dynamics is less about predictions than it is about
trends. And the madness and folly and chaos trends are growing worse
every day. These are the trends, and the trends are unstoppable.
Every aspect of today's world is worse than yesterday's world. The
only good news is that today's world is better than tomorrow's world.

If something can't go on forever, then it won't.

People talk about how to prevent World War III. But what I see is a
world that needs World War III. Each day's delay means that World War
III will be even worse. Let's just get it over with as soon as
possible, and see who survives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cCO7Wg-og0
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ncsc-how- ... ncsc-nittf
The early works, The Birth of Tragedy and the four Unzeitgemässe Betrachtungen (1873; Untimely Meditations),
are dominated by a Romantic perspective influenced by Schopenhauer and Wagner.
Nietzsche was so adored by them that Hitler gifted Mussolini the complete works.

Nietzsche, according to Botton, believed that Christianity like alcohol, “dulls pain” but also “weakens resolve to
overcome the problem from which the pain has arisen.”
And if you thought that might piss off the Church, it did.
After his death, Nietzsche’s burial records written by church authorities note he was “a known antichrist” next to his name”.
The brothels pathogens ate his alleged wonderful mind.

The facts rarely see light.
https://www.leonardsax.com/Nietzsche.pdf

As we note in the 1840's window Darwinian's never repent until they are on their deathbed as did Darwin also.
They just tell the Academy what they wanted to hear.

Marx covered in carbuncle's
Nietzsche another one eyed soul the land of the willfully blind.
At least Enoch got a free pass walking on point.

2 Timothy 2:25

book four open very modest position

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj3U0z64_m4

Cool Breeze wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:13 pm Being able to read the signs of the times is why certain people are rewarded handsomely (me here) and why others aren't (you).

This was stated to me with regard to bitcoin. I agree that this is a very important aspect of trading.

For me, though, there are easier ways to read the signs of the times and profit, and a situation that came up yesterday illustrates that.

What reminded me of this was Air Products reported yesterday and the report didn't meet expectations, so the stock tanked. It tanked hard, then it reversed hard. What I know about Air Products is they make industrial gases. It's, in my opinion, a ho-hum business and Air Products shares are hugely overvalued. But there's a hook. Air Products makes hydrogen gas! It's a "green" company! Go Green! Go Biden! So there may be a subset of sober investors who feel the company is overvalued along with a subset of investors who want to buy Air Products on any dip because of the hydrogen story. Those are the signs of the times, and this tug of war currently exists.



There was a lot of money to be had there if someone with an understanding of these dynamics could time the swings even approximately.

There was an 8% swing in a ho-hum stock in minutes.

In a few decades gap analysis of simple venns populated as you do H will
assist them in our scatter brain risk premium charts. No worry's its not they teaches in the college.
Have a blue shirt and make over 300k on 1989 dollars in DCF and they will simply insult you.
Gande was right in so many ways but we listen to even older thought maps that yes are correct also.
I was asked in class what was your salary. He was 7x below that years AUM alone
and it never dawned on him some are working 3 or more sectors.
I never told Him what was done and how it was done.
In learned College is wonderful thing with the right attitude and now we see many left overs trapped
by cult worshippers.

Spaide, 47, shot dead his neighbors, James Goy, 50, and his wife, Lisa, 48,
after arguing about shoveling snow onto each other’s property.
All educated.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=sg_pVtSU

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=TTcILWCo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpkUISUx3Lo

https://tv.gab.com/channel/torvoldtoste ... 74c6db7186
canceled cult cuts
Finishing touches on the next Great Muppet Reaping. WallStreetBets muppets got played.

I would like to point out that the minute you accept guilt by association or ethnic slander to form the main premise for justifying exceptions to the rule of law, you are well on your way to repeating what can only end in a burnt out bunker in Berlin. Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:13 am
As it was written the abandonment phase is now well underway.

Remember H rule five and option five we seen real time is no accident.
Guy was extoling the virtues of communism and another perfect information cult in Hayek's warning.
Demsheviks will go full fdr 90 percent digicoin tax when push hits shove. It is the only reason it exists from the white papers we noted here
since the DOD papers. We had those conversation before they where even born.
Hayek noticed the many students who went to Europe (especially to France and Germany) to study in the 1920s and 30s: "Many a university teacher during the 1930's has seen English and American students return from the Continent uncertain whether they were communists or Nazis and certain only that they hated Western liberal civilization."
I smiled and conveyed a Kibbutz is a different conversation and about time they figure it out the trenches
are already full of harmonious half wits.

thread: ccc
We cannot accuse you of ignorance, just old fashioned stupidity.

Martinov, Alexander (1865-1935)
Right-wing Menshevik before 1917 and for a few years after the revolution an opponent of the Soviet government. Strong advocate of the two stage theory: that fully capitalistic government needed to run its course in Russia before Socialism was possible. He joined the Communist Party in 1923, and became an opponent of the Left Opposition. He was a chief architect of the Stalinist theories used to justify subordinating the workers to the "progressive" bourgeoisie, including the concept of the "bloc of four classes."
New Democracy, or the New Democratic Revolution, is a concept incorrectly based on Mao Zedong's adapted as the Bloc of Four Social Classes theory in post-revolutionary China which argued originally that democracy in China would take a decisively distinct path to that in any other country.
Adapted as the Bloc of Four Social Classes theory in post-revolutionary.
Leninism was an export model that got what it simply was. Demons with flashlights.
Give Andropov credit since Constantinople fell look how long it took to disgorge it.
The irony is that incorporated literally means embodied.

No it was decided to punish the innocent.
Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:55 am
search.php?keywords=warez&t=2&sf=msgonly

https://www.wionews.com/world/washingto ... eam-354252
After Hitler came to power, the Frankfurt intellectuals came to the United States. Ironically, Adorno, the hater of popular culture, settled in Los Angeles. Marcuse ended up in NYC, where the work of the Frankfurt School was continued on a formal basis at Columbia University.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-cont ... 00x236.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ7W-nQED0I
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-02- ... debasement

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WvRTajcSyOk/ ... 20fail.JPG

https://www.wionews.com/india-news/unio ... get-360606
india surge - maybe...
Union Budget 2021-22 proposals rest on six pillars.

.9936 trend
closed book four same day H
adapt
keep the small wins
they bitch its because they cannot comprehend liquidity providers anyways
they start a hft tax capital will leave in under 46 milliseconds

China’s hefty economic footprint in Myanmar has arguably been a pilot for its Belt and Road Initiative. t
Myanmar is finished.

To date by July 2020, well over 1300 CEOs from massive corporations throughout the world had stepped down from their positions in the preceding twelve months.

To the recent list, add Jeff Bezos, Merck CEO Kenneth Frazier, Leon Black from Apollo - and here is a list of politicians that have died or vanished in the last 10 days:

-Bobby McKee, Northern Irish politician
-Jean-Pierre Michel, French Politician
-Moshe Moskowitz, Israeli politician
-Bootie Neal, American politician
-Patrick O'Donoghue, Irish roman catholic bishop
-Joseph Donna end, South African politician
-Sifis Valirakis, Greek politician, drowned
-Steven T. Kuykendall, American politician, U.S. house of representatives
-Nilda Pedrosa, American politician, public affairs
-Robert Rowland, British politician, drowned
-George Weatherill, Australian politician
-Gunawan Wirosaroyo, Indonesian politician
-Jean-Pierre Baeumier, French Politician
-Jacqueline Berenstein-Wavre, Swiss politician
-Jose Manuel Botella Crespo, Spanish Politician
-Aenenas Chigwedere, Zimbabwean Politician
-Routouang Yoma Golom, Chandran militant & Politician
-Jerzy Grelewski, Polish Politician
-Feliks Gromov, Russian Commander-in-Chief
-Meherzia Labidi Maiza, Tunisian Politician
-Joel Matiza, Zimbabwean Politician
-Raphael Steger Catano, Mexican diplomat
-Hank Coe, American politician & Senate
-Mauricio Herdocia Sacasa, Nicaraguan, integration systems
-Jackson Mthembu, South African Politician
-Jose Pampuro, Argentinian politician, minister of defense & defense secretary
-Joyce Hearn, American politician
-Justin Lekhanya, Mosotho Politician
-Sibusiso Moyo, Zimbabwean Politician
-Brian Hillery, Irish politician
-Emanuele Macaluso, Italian politician
-Toleafoa Ken Vaafusuaga Poutoa, Samoan Politician
-Felipe Quispe, Bolivian politician
-Carlos Tapia Garcia, Peruvian Politician
-Jim Vickerman, American politician & Senate
-Jean Dumont, French Politician
-Savavar Gestsson, Icelandic Politician
-Nombulelo Hermans, South African politician
-Akos Kizra, Hungarian Politician
-Joshua Kyeremeh, Ghanaian politician
-Dundar Ali Osman, Turkish Royal
-Henryk Ostrowski, Polish Politician
-Gatot Sudjito, Indonesian politician
-K.V. Vijayadas, Indian Politician
-Aminuddin Ponulele, Indonesian Politician
-Billy Kinoi, American politician
-Sergei Prinkhodko, Russian politician
-Carlos Holmes Trujillo, Columbian Politician
-Ihwan Datu Adam, Indonesian politician
-Soichi Aikawa, Japanese Politician
-Avelino Mendez Rangel, Mexican Politician
-Debbie Bath Hadden, Canadian Politician
-Robert Canas Lopez, Salvadoran Politician
-Antonio Cardoso e Cunha, Portuguese Politician
-Abdullahi Ibrahim, Nigerian Politician
-Dave Arnold, American politician & Senate
-Joevana Charles, Seychellois Politician
-Victor Crisologo, Peruvian Politician
-Barbara Gronemus, American politician
-Marlin Kuykendall, American politician
-Jubril Martins-Kuye, Nigerian Politician
-K. G. Shankar, Indian Politician
-Jon Sullivan, Australian politician
-Marius Swart, South African politician
-Vicent Tur, Spanish Politician
-Maynard Wallace, American politician & House of representatives
-Salleh Abas, Malaysian Politician
-Mahaveer Bhagora, Indian Politician
-Xavier Hunault, French Politician
-Sergi Mingote, Spanish Politician
-Bheki Ntuli, South African politician
-Phuong Mai, Vietnamese Royal
-Om Prakash Sharma, Indian Politician
-Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Indonesian diplomat
-Mauro Telles, Brazilian Politician