Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[John]

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Higgenbotham, is Marc Widdowson still alive? Have you anything from him since 2001?

https://amarna-ltd.co.uk/index.html

This web site really pisses me off because
they charge for analyses based on fraud.

Here's a sample from the web site:

https://amarna-ltd.co.uk/index.html

Amarna Ltd

The further you look back,
the further you see forward

Amarna is a theoretical history
consultancy and research company. It
provides advice and solutions in thae
areas of strategy, intelligence,
forecasting and communication. This
website showcases the growing precision
and predictive power of socio-historical
models thanks to better theory, new data
and the tools of complexity science.

...




World population follows a hyperbolic
curve that can be explained by a simple
model. Let P = population and T =
technology. Assume that population is
limited by the technology, i.e. better
technology makes possible a larger
population. This can be expressed as P =
a T, where a is some constant of
proportionality. Assume the growth of
technology is increased by both the
population (more potential inventors)
and the technology already in existence
(facilitating the spread and
recombination of ideas). This can be
expressed as dT/dt = b P T, where b is a
constant. We can therefore write dP/dt
=a dT/dt = a b P T, and since a T = P,
this becomes dP/dt = b P2. The solution
to this equation is P = c / (t0 - t)
where c = 1 / b, t0 = 1 / (b P0 ), and
P0 = starting population. This is the
equation of a hyperbola. With suitable
estimates of c and P0, it fits the
observed growth of world population to
an accuracy of 99.6%. Andrey Korotayev,
Artemy Malkov & Daria
Khaltourina. 2006. Introduction to
Social Macrodynamics: Compact
Macromodels of the World System
Growth. URSS.

it's hard to know where to start with this ridiculous mess. he says that world population follows a hyperbolic curve, and you have to be an idiot not to know that it follows an exponential curve. that graph is equally ridiculous, since if it had been draft on a logarithmic scale, then the graph would be pretty much a straight line rather than what they imagine to be a hyperbola.

then they go on to say that technology is proportional to population. they state this with no evidence whatsoever and it's clearly ridiculous, since a lot of technology is developed during wars when population is falling. they then go on to conclude p. equals a. t, imagining a. constant of proportionality a, that is, the proportion between population and technology. actually, both population and technology grow exponentially, with different exponential exponents, meaning that a would itself have to be an exponential value, not a constant.

the website goes on to post additional nonsense based on these erroneous and unsupported assumptions. but what the hell, as long as they're making money, what difference does it make?

this website is perfectly appropriate for a dark age hovel.

[Guest]

SI was a dead center for H and GD
If it goes meme shorts will be destroyed.

[Higgenbotham]

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Higgenbotham, is Marc Widdowson still alive? Have you anything from him since 2001?

https://amarna-ltd.co.uk/index.html

This web site really pisses me off because
they charge for analyses based on fraud.

the website goes on to post additional nonsense based on these erroneous and unsupported assumptions. but what the hell, as long as they're making money, what difference does it make?

this website is perfectly appropriate for a dark age hovel.

I mentioned this site 3 years ago.

http://amarna-ltd.co.uk/index.html

Elites exploit this cheap labour to expand, and divide into rival factions. Elite expansion increases the state's obligations while general impoverishment reduces its revenues, and its authority breaks down. Elite factions then mobilise the populace to fight over a new order.

Generational cycle also noted.

The owner of this business published a book in 2001 called The Coming Dark Age. He also had a blog or two that provided current news that demonstrated how the theory was unfolding in real time, which was abandoned a few years ago, but is still in existence (sort of like the ruins of abandoned buildings). Believing a dark age is coming is all well and good until the bills need to be paid as another year goes by, then another. Those lights can get pretty expensive until they go out. And you can't sell anything telling people a dark age is coming. To sell, you have to tell them the the fourth technological revolution is coming and it will change everything (see link).

• Information-Scientific: 1955 - c. 2110; machines became intelligent, taking over human cognitive work.
While the production principles have been of successively shorter duration, they have each gone through the same six stages in the same relative time. The present Information-Scientific principle is currently in Stage 2 (Adolescence). Stage 2 of the Industrial principle was from 1600 to 1730, and witnessed breakthroughs in fundamental science. However, the real transformation of society came in Stage 3, when population was displaced from the countryside into the cities and the nature of work changed with the rise of factories and steampower. Stage 3 of the Information-Scientific principle will begin around 2030/2040, and will see displacement of population from the planet's surface into orbital factories along with changes in the nature of work as Artificial Intelligence takes over routine intellectual tasks.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
― Upton Sinclair

Also, I've been intending to comment on the 6 excerpts I posted from his book but haven't gotten around to it yet. I posted those to provide another view on the coming dark age and also because many of the topics he covers in those excerpts have been discussed and debated here.

[aeden]

http://journalof911studies.com/resource ... l39May.pdf
Also as we noted from the Assyrian clay tablet circa 2800 BC. It bore the words
"Our earth is degenerate in these latter days. There are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end.
Bribery and corruption are common."

The strategy of tension is alive and well.

[Guest]

SI was a dead center for H and GD
If it goes meme shorts will be destroyed.

What?

[Higgenbotham]

Paying close attention to and understanding manipulation and fraud seems to be my best strategy lately for cashing in on the lottery economy. I may show some examples as they come up.

This is a good example. A test of how much power the manipulators and fraudsters who have been running Wall Street currently have has been ongoing for several days. Many in the trading community besides me have come to the conclusion that 4200 is an important long term level in the S&P 500 cash index. Here is a trader who sees that:

Pinned Tweet
navtrader
@Trader_NAV

Feb 23, 2022
With the break of SPX 4222, my LT signal has turned from a bull to bear market. Target 1 - SPX 3800, Target 2 - SPX 3200. There will be huge bear market rallies along the way, as we head towards these targets over the next few months.

https://twitter.com/trader_nav

This has been pinned to the top of his twitter for a few months.

The manipulators and fraudsters on Wall Street typically "run the stops" by taking the market through key levels to knock out the shorts. This is often done using the futures at night to push the market through those levels on thin volume so that the market gaps over those levels in the morning. Once the shorts are knocked out and not sure what is happening (what aeden has referred to as a beehive smash) then they go short themselves and drive the market back down. Obviously, taking out 4200 or thereabouts in this manner will be very lucrative if they can do it. If they can't, real market forces may be getting the best of them.

[aeden]

Great logic. Thanks H
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of6crieiOpA recon maps

Issue:
PSR (precision schedule railroading). Minimize personnel, gut everything. Maximize profits, run everything bare bones.
No one held accountable.
Countless infected.
See David Gilo and Ehud Guttel, Negligence and Insufficient Activity: The Missing Paradigm in Torts, 108 Mich L Rev 277, 289 (2009).

[Higgenbotham]

A Malignant Flu May Soon Evolve to Infect and Kill Humans, Report Says

Story by Tim Newcomb • 20m ago

A malignant flu may soon spread from birds to infect and kill humans. Scientists fear a mammal-to-mammal transmission could lead to global catastrophe.
A mink farm in Spain is the site of concerning research regarding the spread of avian influenza.
Researchers believe the bird flu was transmitted across minks in the farm—a troubling mammal-to-mammal spread.
The outbreak at the mink farm opens a new worry for health researchers.

Last fall, on a mink farm in Spain, H5N1 (avian influenza) likely spread across the animals. The outbreak resulted in the death or culling of the entire group of 50,000 minks.

Why should you care? Because it may have marked the first known case of mammal-to-mammal transmission of the deadly virus known as the bird flu, according to a new study. And that doesn’t portend anything good for humans.

The bird flu has proven scary enough with its occasional spreads from birds to mammals of all sorts, but the study published in Eurosurveillance calls the latest devastation of mink sicknesses and deaths especially concerning. “Our findings also indicate that an onward transmission of the virus to other minks may have taken place in the affected farm,” the

That raises the alarm that humans could be next. “This outbreak signals the very real potential for the emergence of mammal-to-mammal transmission,” Michelle Wille, a University of Sydney researcher, tells CBC News.

“It could have deadly consequences,” Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialists, tells CBC News. “This is an infection that has epidemic and pandemic potential. I don’t know if people recognize how big a deal this is.”

Well, that’s comforting.

The H5N1 avian influenza is notorious for a near 100-percent mortality rate in birds. While mammals aren’t catching the virus at the same rate as birds, they aren’t immune to the effects: bird flu has a global WHO mortality rate of greater than 50 percent for humans.

So far, the human infections link to contact with an infected bird, which is why the mammal-to-mammal possibility becomes the troubling part of this entire scenario. If a mammal, such as a mink, can become an intermediary host, the virus can then mutate to pose an even greater risk to other mammals, including humans.

“And so what’s concerning about this,” Louise Moncla, a University of Pennsylvania school of veterinary medicine assistant professor, tells CBC News, “is that this is exactly the kind of scenario you would expect to see that could lead to this type of adaptation, that could allow these viruses to replicate better in other mammals—like us.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technolo ... 6dc916959b

[aeden]

Perfect angle it flu from the burning railcar.

Meanwhile the juice boxes are coming up with a solution as Looter Kaplan gave the parties until the end of next week to submit proposals for how to modify the bail bribe package, suggesting that the defense hire a consultant who can advise the FTX Judge on how to launder the issues forthe demsheviks cover up.
U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan has barred the 30-year-old former billionaire from contacting current or former employees at his exchange and Alameda Research hedge fund, and from using encrypted messaging apps such as Signal that let users auto-delete messages.
Yes they are this retarded to not Hole the criminal luntics lokking like the bag man idiots they truly are now.

[Higgenbotham]

This morning I lost a post from yesterday when I tried to use part of it to make a new post, so will reconstruct it and update it.

What it said is almost every year since 2011 I have been expecting a financial collapse that will lead to a collapse into a new dark age. On February 9, I posted in the Financial Topics that the ongoing slow bear market that started in January 2022 could begin a new phase of more rapid down movement that day, but the stock market went down for a day or two and then recovered. So the collapse waited. I also said that since February 9, I've been orienting my positions more toward the long term by holding short and trading less. If the manipulators and fraudsters are able to blow the 4200 level out, I will be increasing shorts and taking drawdowns in my account, as I think any breach of the 4200 level, if it occurs, will just be temporary manipulation.

I don't have much of an opinion about whether that possibility has been negated today, but that's certainly in my view the more interesting case. In that event, I will hold shorts as the market falls, maybe looking for places to add, if an acceleration down continues.

I drew some money out of my account early in January and have been bumping my account value slightly higher since in the face of the market rally.