Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Browne divided his Permanent Portfolio into four equal parts: stocks, long-term bonds, cash and gold,
and he rebalanced it annually with the idea that there’s always a bull market in something.

Or maybe a bull market in most things on average. If there's a bear market in most things on average, the Permanent Portfolio goes down, but maybe not down as fast as most things by themselves.

[aeden]

But according to JPM strategists, it's all good, because the message is don't go crazy here but definitely don't sell.

Translation: JPM openly admits that it ignores warning signs that suggest a correction is near, and instead it focuses all of its shit-talking on stuff like Bitcoin, which Normand tried to bash two weeks ago... just before another 60% rally pushed Bitcoin to a new all time high.

Listing several hypothetical downside "catalysts", the JPM strategist mentions Fed tapering later this year; a string of upside surprises on US inflation that pulls forward expectations of Fed tightening; vaccine failure; politics/geopolitics; and half-seen threats like cyber risk and climate catastrophes (previous cyber strikes and climate events have yet to debilitate a major economy).

And while even the JPM permabull admits that "out of humility, it is worth recalling that some economic and market disruptors (like COVID) were foretold by no one (in Finance, at least), so some will respect evidence of vulnerability even without a specific catalyst", he nonetheless goes on to write that "for now, the message of the model is more a reason to avoid extreme risk exposures rather than turn overall neutral or defensive."

“We’ve been comfortable advising investors to stay long most markets,” Normand added, noting that "when growth is above trend, monetary policy is ultra-loose and fiscal policy is on overdrive, markets tend to exhibit the financial variant of Newton’s Law: they stay in motion until acted upon by another force."

Translation: yes, a market correction is imminent, but do anything stupid like selling and instead just prepare BTFD even more because one way or another, the Fed will bail you out.

H the liability is the consumers they just annihilated.
The truth of the matter is they are after the 61 percent they do control on the informal economy not discussed
since our NAM discussions at our peril. They are lie cheat and steal with burn loot and murder.
Now they press on with millions on wasted capital to scorched earth all else.
They should be out on their murderous ass in term limits.
Yes we get the issues as Doctor Warner clearly illustrated also.
Filth covers the land and hardens is all that is going on.

Nahum 3:6 I will throw abominable filth on you, and make you vile, and will set you a spectacle.

[Higgenbotham]

Well, so I run the algorithm for over a year from 1/1/20 to the
present. It has its ups and downs during the year. At some points
during the year, it loses money, usually because of losing money on a
short after hitting a stop. But at the end of the year, the algorithm
makes money net on every commodity. This is absolutely astonishing to
me.

I mention all this because if I had anything like the guts you have,
then I would use the algorithm to make investments. But I don't, and
when you and Richard post messages saying that you're almost wiped
out, the reasons become clear. And that's the difference (or one of
the many differences) between you and me.

This old hash from 2010 is probably worth recycling too.

There is no investment strategy that will preserve capital over a long time horizon, just strategies that allow it to go extinct more slowly. Wealth never survives more than a few generations no matter how much it is or who manages it. A lot of people point to gold. Gold costs roughly 1% per year to insure and store, so by that route the value of a constant amount in storage is gone in 100 years. If the storage is paid out of the value of the original holding, it will last longer and decay at 1% per year instead and only 37% of the value will be left in 100 years. If one chooses self storage, it will likely be lost or stolen when the crisis it is meant to protect against comes to pass.

It may be that the strategy of this algorithm will allow capital to go extinct more slowly than my strategy. But I've lasted quite a long time without being long anything for more than a trade.

[aeden]

Newton suggested viewing the symbolic as a “prophetic language,” which, like all foreign languages,
one must first learn before understanding the underlying message.

Some understand your view also H.
More do not understand Newton or Higg either.

What is written here is already known they ran up crypto 4 to 8 hundred percent and think it
will save them.
They are dead wrong and will be exposed.
We mentioned one percent run up 4 hundred percent and slowly walk away covering logic veiled as education.

The point we mentioned one study indicate they are 386 percent levered not to implode trying to survive
as they devour the sheep pens we discussed.
The last quant study was 4 to 1 bonds over equity as lsap ices the $
We forwarded the mindset and it does not matter as the sheep follow the the logic walking in circles they do not even consider.

[aeden]

https://www.thebalance.com/national-deb ... ts-3306287

No one really trusts these crap bags as the abandonment principle holds clear and runs it clear course.

As we said clearly we buy land in the spring for obvious reasons if we decide.
We planted some after the land rested in respect to issues they cannot comprehend.

sidebar
https://seekingalpha.com/article/440618 ... -for-reits

Current Yield Spreads Offer Significant Margin of Safety.....

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock ... tina-party

good hunting h

Additionally, this acceleration in yields is being driven by convexity, gamma-hedging flows. t

[aeden]

20% discount relative to pre-crisis levels.

last time noted 40 in sector dislocation and ended up at 44 on the total tally

alot of muppets fell over that side of the boat in that window

today well we could be wrong but they do not listen to taxpayers anyways

[aeden]

Short Interest 6.26%
Market Cap $4.87B
bad idea guys

[aeden]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=CCsn3UNU
If you survive these maniacs.

[aeden]

Musk publicly bought into Bitcoin the other day.
No black choppers or napalm.
Sea hag is looking for its dentures meanwhile screeching Orange bad.
Piss away one percent who cares other than the Queen of Damned.

[aeden]

Mastercard, in a blog post late Wednesday, singled out so-called “stablecoins,” which often peg their value to that of another asset, such as the U.S. dollar. Mastercard has already partnered with crypto card providers such as Wirex and BitPay, but has required digital currencies to be converted into fiat before processing payments for transactions on its network.

Ceaser is dead and competing currency to effective tax rate is all they will focus on.

“Give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and to God what is God’s.”

Hayek and competing currencies.
G. R. Steele. G. R. Steele is Lecturer in Economics at Lancaster University and the author of
The Economics of Friedrich Hayek (Macmillan, 1993) and Keynes and Hayek.

Shall we discuss missing dollar in the budget.
On September 10th 2001, Sec. Defence Donald Rumseld announced that 2.3 Trillion Dollars in transactions could not be accounted for.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leIyaTpTZe0