Re: Financial topics
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:37 pm
They are not even to the recognition stage of the problems.
Generational theory, international history and current events
https://www.gdxforum.com/forum/
Use your common sense. The US dollar has been around for 250 years.Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:16 pm > Again, you create imaginary people in your mind and attack their
> (supposedly) weak argument. That's not what we say.
> You still haven't explained "underlying, core value". Why? Because
> you can't. Does fiat have an underlying, "core" value? Why isn't
> it a bubble (ha, it's not bigger than BTC, unreal how foolish this
> sentiment is)? Does gold? Open your mind, use your
> reason. Anything you claim about BTC can be said about any other
> device or entity in the world, there is no exception - except food
> drink and shelter, all perishable things that have their own
> frailties even, otherwise. How many times do I have to state this
> FACT?
There are many that I've started to discuss.vincecate wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:24 pm Higgie, what do you think are the unfixable flaws in Bitcoin/Lightning?
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Aug 07, 2010 2:02 pmBut I think we have to take this a step at a time. The process of private market debt deflation is likely to be a very long one and during that process our institutions will undergo changes that will likely make it impossible to hyperinflate. The mechanism by which that happens, my guess anyway, is that state (as in US states such as Texas, etc.) or private forms of money will be introduced and compete side by side with Federal Reserve Notes.
Generally speakng, the large currency blocks such as the EU and the US are running into trouble partly because one centralized economic policy and currency cannot fit the needs of a highly diverse area. At the same time, the new technologies make it feasible to create and administer alternative currencies that meet the needs of particular geographic areas. I don't think it'll be too long before the lighbulb goes on inside some desperate state government that this is the solution to their problem. Once that happens, the floodgates will (can is probably the better word here) open and the revolution will (can) be in full swing. As long as that alternative exists, it seems to me that a coup in the traditional sense can be headed off through this means.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... 03544.html
Somebody is beginning to think in this direction, but it doesn't seem that gold and silver coins would be the right solution. One of the Strauss and Howe scenarios was that a governor would lay claim to Federal tax monies (page 272). My guess is this is very likely, along with a plan to establish an alternative digital fiat currency that would promise to be strictly limited in terms of inflation and tailored to the needs of the particular state instead of the crooks on Wall Street.
Longer term, my guess is there will be local economic zones with their own currencies, possibly regional currencies, national currencies, and a world reserve currency. I believe every local economic zone will have a balance of trade accounted for in their own currency and the currencies between local zones and on each geographic level will be electronically interchangeable. I believe Central Banking will be abolished and the parameters like interest rates, money supply, etc., will be set by the free market or by intelligent machines where there is no market.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2010 1:34 amSomewhere in this forum I laid out my vision of how I think the future worldwide monetary system will work. I think the main feature will be that a balance of trade will be required around small economic units or zones, where the units or zones have their own currency and are required to be productive. I think it will be a time of great experimention. Many units or zones will fail and be absorbed into successful models. There will probably be a worldwide currency, but it won't be "owned" by any certain geographic area. Central banking will be abolished and the currency system will be run by markets and intelligent computers.vincecate wrote:I mostly think that international trade will not be done in a single fiat dollar any more (US or other). It is just not fair that one country can print up paper and buy supertankers full of oil or goods from China while other countries have to produce real stuff to get money. So I expect trade will be cleared in gold/silver, but there is some chance that a patchwork of bilateral currency agreements, or something else, could work.
I agree there will be at least partial sovereign debt defaults. My guess has been that during this fourth turning the US will break apart into loosely associated pieces that will eventually have their own currencies. There will still be a weak central government and possibly a national currency, but there won't need to be a national currency. I'm guessing national currencies wil just decline in importance over time as better systems take over that are more compatible with the new technologies. That's just one of a range of possibilities though.
To summarize the above, the missing components to an information age currency system would be:Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2010 5:12 pmI don't think so either. Once there is a partial bond market default, then the credit rating of the US is shot. What I think will happen at that point is the states will say, "Hey, if Washington wasn't pissing all the tax money away that we send them and we could get our hands on it, we could balance OUR state budget. In fact, we could issue OUR own currency and an honest one at that." And it's true. Now I don't know if that means the Federal government can somehow realize the danger and get its act together for a few years at that point, or whether a few states will go ahead with that, or whether there will be a civil war. That's too hard to predict, but I'm guessing that the ultimate outcome will be as I previously posted, that eventually the Feds will take a smaller role. Any new currency will have to be accompanied by political and structural change to make it acceptable.vincecate wrote:I don't think the government can just replace the dollar with another currency and have solved the problem. If the budget is not balanced the new currency is still headed for hyperinflation. Balancing the budget is just not an easy thing.
I don't think so either. That's one reason I think the future monetary system outlined in the above post is ultimately what is most likely. Some version of, "If you don't work, you don't eat." "If you don't produce something of value to export, you don't import." And that could apply to very small units or zones within countries. Basically it means the end of the welfare state as we know it.vincecate wrote:I think Russia and China now understand that having countries near them peg to their currency and use their currency for central bank reserves would let them play the fun game the US has of printing money and getting real things. Assuming the dollar does crash, I don't think Russia and China will be able to pull off the trick. Everyone will understand how the trick works at that point. The US will be poor without the money printing trick so it will become obvious where their wealth came from.
I agree.Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:39 pmThere are many that I've started to discuss.vincecate wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:24 pm Higgie, what do you think are the unfixable flaws in Bitcoin/Lightning?
To summarize the above, the missing components to an information age currency system would be:
1. Political and structural changes that are compatible with an intelligent currency system. There would ideally be self-contained economic zones with their own local currencies tailored to the unique needs of that zone. For example, the interest rate in one zone might need to be different than in another zone to establish some sort of equilibrium. Currently, as mentioned, Europe (especially) is under one currency with one exchange rate and interest rate that doesn't serve the economic interests of the various areas of the continent. The same is true for the US to a lesser extent. Bitcoin doesn't solve that, but electronic currencies and computers can certainly work toward solving that in the future. Neither does a currency for each country in Europe or each state in the US, as those areas don't necessarily correspond to the optimal economic boundaries, but it's a step in the right direction.
2. The currencies would not be regulated by the equivalent of Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates or repo operations, but by intelligent computers. intelligent computers can replicate and improve on Federal Reserve decision making processes by automating them, adjusting them automatically as needed (not just a few times per year, in other words), and taking the human error and politics out of them. Bitcoin doesn't solve that, but again, electronic currencies and artificial intelligence can certainly work toward solving that in the future.
3. Layers of currencies that serve local, regional, national (perhaps), and world reserve currency purposes to optimally regulate the economic system. Local currencies would be used for everyday purchases, regional currencies for trade outside designated economic zones and world reserve currency for reserves. My guess is that a local electronic currency for a modern artificial intelligence based local economy might serve 30,000 people or so.
Since writing some of these ideas in 2010, I think a window of opportunity was missed. instead of the above happening on any near term time line the world will collapse into a dark age. Bitcoin will actually help bring about that process of collapse and is not the answer at all. Bitcoin is sort of like the crude steam engine that the Romans invented. They didn't go headlong into an industrial revolution but instead collapsed and the industrial revolution happened 14 centuries later. From the ashes, an intelligent currency system will eventually emerge from the ground up. My guess is that it will take about 10 centuries for it to happen, no less than 3 or 4.
The other part of that is the debt. Any debt contract like a mortgage in the US is written to require that it be paid in dollars. Also, there are many debt contracts worldwide that stipulate the same. Within the US, there are the legal tender laws (for all debts, public and private).John wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:12 pm ** 03-Mar-2021 World View: Fiat currency
In practical terms, it means this: In the midst of a financial crisis,
almost anyone will accept US dollars to provide products or services.
By contrast, almost nobody will accept bitcoin.
Are you saying scarcity is ONLY present in red states, not blue?Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:08 am There really is scarcity in the red states and it's not because the people who live in them are deplorables.