Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

This is an example of the kind of work that artificial intelligence systems would do to make economic decisions.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:26 pmThere's another point in the discussion about marginal barrels, and that is the net energy extracted from the barrels on the margin. What I mean by that is those marginal barrels may have cost $80 to produce at the peak of the boom but since our accounting system is money based rather than energy based, there is no telling whether those marginal barrels were even produced at positive net BTUs. That's why I've thought for a long time that peak oil isn't actually needed to limit the economy--it can be limited before peak is ever reached.

I'm sure there are people out there who have thought about his more than I have, but I really haven't seen the concept laid out in a big picture manner. Not to say it hasn't. Look hard enough on the Internet and you'll find most anything. The way I think of it is there is a marginal energy producing "system", say the Canadian Tar Sands projects. It would be represented by drawing a boundary around the system and accounting for all the energy flows in and all the energy flows out. For example, if equipment is moved into the system to extract energy, then the energy used to produce and move that equipment would be an energy expenditure of the project. Likewise, any workers who travel to Alberta to work on the project. And so on. I don't know, but it may be that even though the project produces money profits, it may operate at an overall energy loss, in the sense that more overall energy flows into the project than flows out. Since the economy runs on energy, operating projects that operate at an overall energy loss would begin to grind down the economy without anybody realizing why. And I suppose there could be some threshold above loss where that would be the case too. Certainly, at constant production rates over time, replacing a barrel of easy to extract oil with a barrel produced in a marginal tar sands project is a net negative.
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:11 amIt's probable that the problem has not been fully expressed because it requires a rudimentary knowledge of systems theory to express it, and it requires an advanced knowledge of systems theory to model it. The world is not at the point of accurately modeling these kinds of problems.

Modeling would probably require that the modeler construct 2 worlds--the actual one in which the marginal energy project took place and one in which it did not take place. The world energy production and expenditures would need to be compared under the 2 scenarios and netted out to determine if the marginal project had net energy benefit. There are all kinds of complications in that. For example, if a single man is unemployed and living in Alabama, finds employment in Alberta, expends energy to travel there, lives in a housing unit that was built because the project came into existence, marries and has a family because he now has a decent wage, etc., how does his energy expenditure compare to the alternate world in which the marginal energy project did not take place? As I've generally implied before, this in my opinion is the kind of thinking/technology that will be required to move into a "real" information age and we may be several decades or centuries away from it. Doing a project because it has political appeal ("creates jobs"), money profits, and/or because the losses can be socialized will eventually move humanity backwards and that is what seems to be starting to occur across the board.

In this way, peak oil can be predicted as a complex system breakdown which has nothing to do with how much oil has been pumped out of the ground or how much is left to extract (in other words, the magical halfway point that the peak oilers point to), but instead whether systems theory predicts a net energy benefit to the project vis-a-vis an alternate world in which the project is not undertaken.

PS Modeling this problem also has a time dependency associated with it because the energy expenditures to do a project are done up front before any energy flows are obtained from it. Therefore, in theory, a project that grows slowly in the absence of a credit boom, and does not generate huge expenditures of energy up front before any is produced, is less likely to generate system lockup. For example, in the simple extreme that can be easily visualized, if Keppel is building 5 million rigs and using a lot of energy to do it, the energy expenditures to build the rigs could lock up the economy before the rigs are utilized to produce the energy.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

spottybrowncow wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:50 am
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:08 am There really is scarcity in the red states and it's not because the people who live in them are deplorables.
Are you saying scarcity is ONLY present in red states, not blue?

There really is a scarcity of jobs for those who do not have a college education in the former manufacturing areas of the red states. There are real disparities between those areas of the country and the blue areas, particularly the blue urban areas. It's what I call the giant sucking sound from the periphery to Washington. The relative scarcity accounts for most of the difference in thinking, what Butler refers to as tribal thinking versus WEIRD thinking.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
spottybrowncow
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Re: Financial topics

Post by spottybrowncow »

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:06 am
spottybrowncow wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:50 am
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:08 am There really is scarcity in the red states and it's not because the people who live in them are deplorables.
Are you saying scarcity is ONLY present in red states, not blue?

There really is a scarcity of jobs for those who do not have a college education in the former manufacturing areas of the red states. There are real disparities between those areas of the country and the blue areas, particularly the blue urban areas. It's what I call the giant sucking sound from the periphery to Washington. The relative scarcity accounts for most of the difference in thinking, what Butler refers to as tribal thinking versus WEIRD thinking.
So I just want to make sure I'm following you correctly - are you saying blue states don't have areas that have lost manufacturing jobs, or they have lost jobs, but more people there are college-educated, and therefore can get non-manufacturing jobs?
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

spottybrowncow wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:32 am
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:06 am
spottybrowncow wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:50 am

Are you saying scarcity is ONLY present in red states, not blue?

There really is a scarcity of jobs for those who do not have a college education in the former manufacturing areas of the red states. There are real disparities between those areas of the country and the blue areas, particularly the blue urban areas. It's what I call the giant sucking sound from the periphery to Washington. The relative scarcity accounts for most of the difference in thinking, what Butler refers to as tribal thinking versus WEIRD thinking.
So I just want to make sure I'm following you correctly - are you saying blue states don't have areas that have lost manufacturing jobs, or they have lost jobs, but more people there are college-educated, and therefore can get non-manufacturing jobs?

There were fewer manufacturing jobs as a total percentage of the economy in blue states and there have been more opportunities to transition to other kinds of work like service jobs. The disparity in what jobs pay in the red former manufacturing areas vs the blue states is probably the greater factor causing scarcity. As mentioned in one of the posts above, states aren't the best way to demarcate this, but that's how these issues are mostly being framed. Some mapping goes to the county level and that provides a more accurate picture.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:52 pm I would add one thing I haven't said before. The more bitcoin is used, mined and so on, the worse things will get. Yes, Bitcoin is making things worse, not better.
I don't recall anything you said regarding it "going to zero" other than nonsubstantive things like "it has not intrinsic value" which is untrue for many reasons I've stated, and proven by the fact that people have desired it for more than 10 years now. But forgetting that you have not actually made an argument, what is BTC "making worse"?
Cool Breeze
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

aeden wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:43 pm https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdc- ... ors-orders
The cheese has slipped off the cracker.

epitranscriptome - no cure unleashed unto you
It's amazing how many judeans they trot out to keep lying to the people. Uncanny.
Cool Breeze
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:12 pm You ask: "Does [dollar currency] have an underlying, "core" value?"

The answer is yes, it does. There are dollar-denominated assets
around the world -- real estate, bonds, stocks, works of art, ships,
trucks, etc., etc. -- totalling hundreds of trillions and probably
several quadrillions of dollars in value. The sum total of those
quadrillions of dollars in dollar-denominated assets represents the
"core value" of the dollar currency.

Bitcoin has nothing like that. If you have a $1 million in bitcoin,
then there's very little you can do with it. There is little
"exchangeability."

In practical terms, it means this: In the midst of a financial crisis,
almost anyone will accept US dollars to provide products or services.
By contrast, almost nobody will accept bitcoin.

This situation could change. If bitcoin survives, then there will be
more and more bitcoin-denominated assets each year, each decade, each
century. Maybe bitcoin will become the world's reserve currency.
Maybe, if you're still around 250 years from now, then you'll be able
to say, "Look! The bitcoin currency is now finally stronger than the
US dollar! I was right!!" And hopefully your computer overlords will
agree with you.
You have this completely backward until your brain actually starts working at the end of your post. I'm not sure whether to congratulate you on finally thinking about it, or laugh at the CYA.

"Nobody will accept bitcoin". It's already better than the dollar, John. It's hard to even talk about this with conclusion mongers, your current state of mind, because your whole argument, stated again, is that you desire that this asset be 20, or 50 or 100 years old RIGHT NOW. It's just dumb, because that's the whole point of talking about something that is worthwhile to hold, invest, work for, etc RIGHT NOW. By the time that it is so obvious to the masses, you are too late and it's working as something that worked better than the rest, but because of your lack of foresight, you just use it like you use the dollar. But even then, it's still better than the dollar because central and state actors CANNOT abuse you.

Good ideas and arguments - which understand facts, variables, and wisdom to extrapolate this to the future - are what make investors and visionaries successful. They are all here and they are included in the argument.

It's really weird that smart people here do not understand the idea; rather, they suggest that [for example] Walgreens wasn't a good idea UNTIL it was on every street corner in the USA. Ha! It laughably proves every point I've made. Obviously, it was a great idea DECADES before that (what are you gonna say, it just got lucky? LOL). Does that finally open your mind and allow you to release your hate and ego for not seeing the logic, facts and clear conclusions here?
Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

spottybrowncow wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:32 am
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:06 am
spottybrowncow wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:50 am

Are you saying scarcity is ONLY present in red states, not blue?

There really is a scarcity of jobs for those who do not have a college education in the former manufacturing areas of the red states. There are real disparities between those areas of the country and the blue areas, particularly the blue urban areas. It's what I call the giant sucking sound from the periphery to Washington. The relative scarcity accounts for most of the difference in thinking, what Butler refers to as tribal thinking versus WEIRD thinking.
So I just want to make sure I'm following you correctly - are you saying blue states don't have areas that have lost manufacturing jobs, or they have lost jobs, but more people there are college-educated, and therefore can get non-manufacturing jobs?
Spotty, all the worthless corporate and government spillover from the legacy system will crush Blue urban or metropolitan regions once the financial crisis destroys most of the businesses and corps. Then they'll be in the same boat with the red states, except the red states have better survival skills and the blues have non europeans subsistence livers that will cause chaos, violence and major regional damage before many in the area are starved out.
aeden
Posts: 13965
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

We posted the study before on stem trained losses per zone.
Last implosion we lost over 55,000 educated in two of the four zones studied.
I will only convey the art of decay.
https://freaktography.com/abandoned-detroit/
We got Family in Metd so announce if your a Westy.
As noted I was able to convince one to teach classes to
the gain of function issues noted so others maybe survive.

A few here understand our current dxy, 10 year and gold conversation.

https://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... ish#p56133

"Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing." And they divided up his clothes by casting lots.

Audits concluded. Meeting was informal and static to saturation points not understood.
I asked if 1 trillion was on the table would you reach for the table.
We will weather storm on the 3:97 model to bring darkness to light.
As warned early they had lost focus as in the query of Utility.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or12UEx8fHY

To answer your question H from Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:01 am
As noted the Feigenbaum Constant to chaos theory alludes them as they covet.
This was noted as by April it will be apparent.
The thread was and is Pharmakeia here as credited in Revelation 18 as the means by which all the ethnos/races are deceived.
The forensic studies already are pointing to issues. Locally one in thirteen will be disabled not including
the epitranscriptomics that will be devastating.

agree
script is closed
target value hit
all scrapes and scripts flushed
zero leverage going forward
hunter seeker as discussed

inception date Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:13 pm

thread: keynesian veil, 936, cci, amos, sogo
Last edited by aeden on Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7984
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Cool Breeze wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:42 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:52 pm I would add one thing I haven't said before. The more bitcoin is used, mined and so on, the worse things will get. Yes, Bitcoin is making things worse, not better.
I don't recall anything you said regarding it "going to zero" other than nonsubstantive things like "it has not intrinsic value" which is untrue for many reasons I've stated, and proven by the fact that people have desired it for more than 10 years now. But forgetting that you have not actually made an argument, what is BTC "making worse"?
Bitcoin is mostly more nonproductive activity tying up labor and capital. Having said that, there are some positives in Bitcoin such as what Vince has been doing to efficiently transfer funds via Bitcoin.

I would be remiss not to mention that what I do every day (short term trading of stocks) is even more nonproductive than Bitcoin. And I have no problem with that aspect of either one at this time in history.

Just because something has a price right now doesn't give it intrinsic value. The stock market has no intrinsic value and it too will cease to exist in its current form. In the larger scheme of things, most US corporations do nothing productive or useful whatsoever. Their only short term value is in efficiently accumulating Federal Reserve printed money, mostly through political maneuvering.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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