Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

vincecate wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:16 pm So I posted about Bitcoin in Nov 2019. I have been in it much longer but was not on the forum for a long spell. I have two Bitcoin ATMs and the domain http://bitcoin.ai which was registered long ago. But more than that, I organized a conference called "Financial Cryptography" back in 1997. See http://ifca.ai/fc97 Been interested in this Crypto space for a long time, not just because of the recent run up.

My fascination with hyperinflation drives my interest in gold and silver, and a good part of my Bitcoin interest as well.
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:07 pm
aeden wrote:Vin would say three things.
Long bitcoin/short yen
No position in gold, silver or stocks.

You told me you were long Bitcoin in late 2018 (near the low of the past several years). I reported that back to the forum when it was asked how you were doing and what you were thinking.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aeden
Posts: 13969
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Currently we are long oil and we are not over weight nor shy to end of the day realities.
Physicals may be moved for more property.
We will pay cash or we do not want it.
D Ramsey is past correct on needs over wants a we know here.
If I was Vin and did not follow his advise but utilize dar per day rate with casino chips
won in the snow drift paradox gold is drifting down as indicated in the sweep notes.
Gold will look for support at a level we understand. V understand the metals and eco currency facets as such.
I will link van metre later on support sweeps. Rather articulate chap on basis issues trended.
We will adhere to the 3:97 model for now. Short and Long. Always a map as we know as the market bot hit with a hammer.
Size does matter and never fight the tape as we also know point blank. As we see again and again never keep data with a j14 plugged in.
Sausage is only one dollar but there is no sausage in a demshevik world approaching.
We do not think winning a race is as important as seeing the actual finish line.
Currently the half whit's proclaim sacraments matter to the master builder
and cap stone in this hour. They are wrong but that is another day as we understand the Bema seat
to which they should concern themselves.

I would not want to live on a coastal plain either into this hour but no matter for in that day
they did eat, they drank, they married wives, they were given in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark, and the flood came,
and destroyed them all. He worked on it 150 years or so until the boss shut the door for Him. Lamech was right but did not need to see it.
The prophesy of Lamech concerning his faithful son Noah.
Cool Breeze
Posts: 3040
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

richard5za wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:27 am Dear Higg and Cool,
I am not following the logic on the Doomsday arguement.
Say I don't believe in the doomsady scenario: That doesn't mean that Bitcoin will succeed. There must be other reasons for it to succeed or fail.
If I do believe in the doomsday scenario then that doesn't mean Bitcoin will succeed or fail any better than other asset classes. What if there is no doomsday internet or equivelent?
If I say Bitcoin will succeed because certain famously successful people believe this then we are assuming that the circumstances and logic that made them famous will prevail and cause them to be right on Bitcoin. But at the speed at which the world is changing is this a reasonable assumption?
And then we have the uncomfortable historical research that shows that economic and political experts are less accurate in their predictions than a dart throwing chimp. So maybe these famously successful people only have feet of clay?
In the case of this website we seem to have found a methodology which makes predictions easier, but of course there cannot be timing to the forecast!
One thing we can learn from history is that when there have been massive upwards valuations of assets, and this is coupled with impassioned arguements for and against then put your FOMO somewhere else (Fear Of Missing Out) and get the hell out of there
richard, these are really good questions. I get a chance to clarify even further since you are asking questions and the obfuscators sadly mix the concepts (or make up their own fantasy of what I state - this is common and I can't understand why since clearly they have command of the English language), which I have been clear about. So I will address them, yet again:

My struggle here for months has been to get people to consider that since we don't know the future, we can only assign probabilities to what any of many different outcomes might be. No one is God, and beyond the fact that there are paradoxes in the universe that are all contingent on probability anyway, so we therefore are foolish to think we know what is going to happen. Being God even is irrelevant because ultimately this world will fade away and we won't worry about it - in a changed realm outside of created things like time and space, the eternal now already realizes "what happened." Anyway, back to us. Just like in investing, probabilities have to be considered, and some are better at doing this than others, that's why we have better investors than others. Within the margin of error and risk is why someone who is wrong about eventuality X survives over time, and why he strategizes accordingly (see Taleb - don't get blown up). Thinking that it's all over and doomsday is going to happen for sure WIPES YOU OUT of the scenarios that really weren't all that doomsday, when if you get through something bad but not awful or horrible, you can position yourself on the other side, rather than just having foodstuffs and a bunker, but no surviving wealth, bitcoin, ability to move to the new place that is not ruined, etc. This should be a fairly basic concept to the wise man. What proves the point is that if it's going to be so horrible anyway, who even cares about planning for it?

Ok, from here, doomsday doesn't mean BTC succeeds, correct. These are unrelated concepts. But if the quality of the "bad times coming" (I've never denied that this is a major possibility, or even likely, to be sure) is in a digital realm (that's what's happening) increasingly, you have some optionality that is outside of the world order that is repressing its people by controlling banks and currencies. BTC is tailor made for what central banks are doing to their people (if you want freedom) and an answer for social mistrust of governments around the world - it is literally the only thing that can keep them honest at this point (they've stacked gold and can set prices for it, if you haven't noticed). Those are the reasons why it succeeds. It is untouchable by governments in its essence. They can do NOTHING about its value. They can alter fiat and even gold derivatives or pricing, and have, at their will. Are you beginning to see what I'm saying?

Additionally, I do not argue that BTC "will succeed because other [smart, rich] people believe it". I never have. I say the opposite. I say it will succeed because of its characteristics as the soundest money of all time, and although I don't believe it will be currency, it will be the only un-impairable asset, as Saylor argues. Rich, smart people believe in BTC because of its characteristics. So the critics again get that backward. They also then have to answer why rich, smart people would be involved at all if it is what they characterize it as - a tulip bubble or some other childish idea.

Quickly on the tulip bubble, which is the most embarrassing comparison these emotional hater posters put forth: The tulip thing was overstated, but even if you don't believe that, the nail in the coffin for the stupidity in comparison is that the "tulip bubble" - or any other bubble akin, lasted all of 1 year? Maybe 1.5. It didn't even bankrupt anyone, but it proved itself a bubble, yes. What has bitcoin done? It's only been around for 10+ years and while it has gone up and down, it never died. And it continued gaining steam. That's why it is here to stay. The network effects can only be denied, and the intrinsic qualities of it, by people who don't know what it is or care to learn, because they draw conclusions and then run their mouths. That's why they can't ever answer why it has no value or intrinsic value, as if we don't have countless examples anyway of fiat (which are worthless) that utilize non-tangible factors for media of exchange and even, for a time, store of value. It's breathtakingly ignorant stuff to deny this fact.

Ultimately, if the PE and other (paper) assets are majorly inflated, and they are, the question becomes, where do you store value? Bonds? LOL. Stocks? LOL. Gold or other commodities. Maybe. But go look at gold, or any other asset that you can think of and compare it to BTC for 10 years. Then bow down.

Seriously, it'll be the funniest thing in the world when BTC is 15, 20 years old and the chicken littles are still screaming "bubble, bubble!" while it is 6 or 7 figures in USD value. Sheesh, by that time, USD might not even be a major player, anymore. Who knows.
aeden
Posts: 13969
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=59047&hilit=du ... a54#p59047
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/today ... nd-boredom

Between intrinsic value and utility the <97 are clueless or worse unable to ever fathom it.
The economy diverged many decades ago even before the cheese heads verbiage or CFR rulings written in blood.
Even the Arabs will admit it when they closed the Gates of Babylon in Egypt to Mecca.
Bottom line is unless they teach you case law on strict liability you will not understand the day you are in today.
The only reason it avails as such is a Trillion in assets sitting on a table now sanctioned.
Or as the Professor stated clearly leaving a Banana on top of a ladder you are going to loose it.

The Tulip bubble popped when news of a silver ship sank.
Last edited by aeden on Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Like I said, get ready for him to crank up the volume. All of this has been addressed multiple times.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:23 pm City analysts say the world’s most popular cryptocurrency is “at the tipping point of mainstream acceptance or a speculative implosion.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambys ... f7d7323f69

It's do or die for the Bitcoin promotion machine and they know it.

More frenzied posting is coming here.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Tulipomania
Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:40 pm > Quickly on the tulip bubble, which is the most embarrassing
> comparison these emotional hater posters put forth: The tulip
> thing was overstated, but even if you don't believe that, the nail
> in the coffin for the stupidity in comparison is that the "tulip
> bubble" - or any other bubble akin, lasted all of 1 year? Maybe
> 1.5. It didn't even bankrupt anyone, but it proved itself a
> bubble, yes.
Your description is completely untrue. The Tulipomania bubble lasted
for decades, and it bankrupted a lot of people.

I wrote about Tulipomania at length in my 2003 book on Generational
Dynamics. I was comparing the tech bubble to the bubble in "high
tech" tulips. Here's what I wrote at that time:

**** Tulipomania

By way of example, let's start with one of the most famous bubbles in
history. However, it occurred in Europe, not in America. It's the
first reasonably well-documented bubble in history, and it was called
"Tulip Mania" or "Tulipomania" -- because it had to do with the
pricing of Dutch tulips in the early 1600s. This bubble grew for
decades, but it only burst completely in 1637, just as France was
entering a major "world war" of that time, the Thirty Years' War.

It's almost hilarious to compare the Internet products of the 1990s
with tulips of the 1630s, but in fact, tulips were the high-tech
product in the Netherlands at that time.

Those were heady days in the Dutch Republic. Amsterdam was the major
gateway between London and Paris, and the city had benefited hugely
from having established Europe's first central bank in 1609, giving
Dutch merchants a big competitive advantage around the world. It was
still the biggest bank in Europe in the 1630s, and the whole of the
Netherlands was prosperous, not having yet been affected by the
Thirty Years War.

Tulips did not originate with the Dutch. The first bulbs had arrived
from Turkey only a few years earlier, in the late 1500s. By means of
breeding experiments, Dutch botanists were able to produce tulips
with spectacular colors. These tulips were sought by wealthy people,
and by 1624, one particularly spectacular bulb sold for the cost of a
small house.

Prices remained elevated for over another decade, and soon investors
from all over Europe began purchasing a kind of "Tulip future," a
certificate purchased in the fall which can be traded for a specific
actual tulip to be grown the following spring. In some ways, these
certificates were similar to "stock options" in the 1990s.

In 1636, speculation in tulip futures went through the roof, and on
February 3, 1637, the tulip market suddenly crashed, causing the
loss of enormous sums of money, even by ordinary people, including
many ordinary people in France and other countries.

A mood of retribution began immediately, and even the tulips
themselves suffered. Evrard Forstius, a professor of botany, became
so reviled by the mere sight of tulips that he attacked them with
sticks whenever he saw them! At this point, the Thirty Years
War enveloped all of Europe.
aeden
Posts: 13969
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

A chart depicting the number of annual bankruptcies in Amsterdam, Leiden, Haarlem, and Groningen from 1635–1800, presented by Messrs. van Houtte and van Buyten (1977, p. 102), reflects a doubling in the number of bankruptcies in Amsterdam from 1635 to 1637. It would be hard to imagine that only tulip growers made up this increase in the number of bankruptcies. I suspect some of the "foolhardy masses" were among this group.

By 1636, a formal futures market had developed for the tulip market. Trading took place in taverns in groups, known as "colleges" where rules governed bidding and fees (Garber 2000, p. 44). As Garber (2000, p. 45) explains:

Neither party intended a delivery on the settlement date; only a payment of the difference between the contract and settlement price was expected.
Gold - Kings
Silver - Gentlemen
Barter- Commoners
Debt - Currency of Slaves

"With the government basically canceling all contracts, growers could not find new buyers or recover money owed them by buyers supposedly under contract." mises.org

Another account tells of a ship that sank or pirated with a literal payload.
Silver was interrupted for the Colleges of futures payment spread disruption.
.gov then strangled the spec bubble.

https://mises.org/library/truth-about-tulipmania

Number inclusive to volume and sanctions taken.

Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes its laws.

The point is globalism was real until the AD 1202 severed of routes and rewritten on the currency reset then and
as before since the oldest profession.

Policy
thread: Red Seal Wars
Last edited by aeden on Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:40 pm My struggle here for months has been to get people to consider that since we don't know the future, we can only assign probabilities to what any of many different outcomes might be. No one is God, and beyond the fact that there are paradoxes in the universe that are all contingent on probability anyway, so we therefore are foolish to think we know what is going to happen.
Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:40 pm Seriously, it'll be the funniest thing in the world when BTC is 15, 20 years old and the chicken littles are still screaming "bubble, bubble!" while it is 6 or 7 figures in USD value.
You've just demonstrated what you think you don't know. You think you don't know when Bitcoin is 15-20 years old whether Bitcoin will be 6 or 7 figures in USD value.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aeden
Posts: 13969
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Envision an Artic spring swarm mosquitoes on a sick Cariboo soon H.
It stalls the map known as flows to the NAM economy which comprises 39 percent of the Planets
mouth breathers that look like Human blood bags to polo-tics to be enumerated.

Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:53 am
H the liability is the consumers they just annihilated.
The truth of the matter is they are after the 61 percent they do control on the informal economy not discussed
since our NAM discussions at our peril. They are lie cheat and steal with burn loot and murder.
Now they press on with millions on wasted capital to scorched earth all else.
They should be out on their murderous ass in term limits.
Yes we get the issues as Doctor Warner clearly illustrated also.

As warned only 4 sets of humans exist with these anti-things.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:40 pm Just like in investing, probabilities have to be considered, and some are better at doing this than others, that's why we have better investors than others. Within the margin of error and risk is why someone who is wrong about eventuality X survives over time, and why he strategizes accordingly (see Taleb - don't get blown up).

So if you are targeting a value for one item (Bitcoin) for 2024 to 2029 (15 to 20 years from introduction), you think that is lower risk than targeting values for a diverse set of items on a shorter time horizon?
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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