Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
tim
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Re: Financial topics

Post by tim »

John wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:48 am The material you've posted from Arthur Demarest is very interesting,
but there's another side to it -- the recovery.

Let's take a relatively modern example, the German civilization. The
German nation was formed in the 1860s, and it reached its peak in
the 1930s. But like the Maya civilization it collapsed quickly.

By 1945, the German civilization was in pieces -- literally, since the
German nation had been split into four pieces. In 1945, all of
Germany's large cities and many midsized cities lay in ruins and
ashes. The allied bombs had been directed at civilians as well as
factories. Incendiary bombs had been used to devour people in flames.
Dresden was a particular target. Tens of millions of people were in
chaos, without homes, and barely with any hope of survival. So that
certainly fits Demarest's description of a civilization that had
collapsed.

But look what happened afterwards. Germany went through a Recovery Era,
and within 20 years was an economic powerhouse again. In 1991, East
and West Germany were reunited, and so you could almost say that German
civilization didn't collapse after all.

What Demarest is describing fits very well into the Generational Dynamics
template. A society or nation reaches a peak during the Unraveling
era or the first part of the Crisis era. Then a Regeneracy occurs,
and the society or nation goes into a full-scale crisis war.
A crisis war typically lasts around five years, and the losing side
can be destroyed very quickly, as Demarest says. But then there's
a Recovery Era and an Awakening Era, and before you know it, everything's
back the way it was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glKe9njOB24

Roman Britain - The Work of Giants Crumbled

If you start watching around 49:00 (though the entire video is worth watching), you can see what true collapse looks like.

- central power collapse, the British people had to "look to their own defenses"

- taxes stopped being collected

- they stopped paying the administrators of the cities and trade routes

- the previous professional military started taxing the civilians directly for protection. These groups grew into the basis of early medieval society

- language was forgotten

- people stopped being able to write

- Britain's Roman cities fell into ruins. Cities abandoned.

- Roman swords were found abandoned, dropped and left there. In this time a sword was what a mobile phone is today it would never be discarded.

- "One day it seems, everyone just got up and left"

- Tribal warlords some of which were officers in the former Roman army, moved in to the ruins and used them as private castles

- trade at London's port stopped completely, suburbs were turned into farmland, people lacked the knowledge and will to rebuild.

- Londons population drifted to the countryside and lived in primitive houses

- Enclave of the ultra wealthy continued to live a Roman existence in a gated community. The decline was unstoppable and the rest of the city descended into chaos. People began to grow wheat in the middle of London. London was eventually deserted completely.
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5
John
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Collapse of Roman Britain
tim wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:36 pm > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glKe9njOB24

> Roman Britain - The Work of Giants Crumbled

> If you start watching around 49:00 (though the entire video is
> worth watching), you can see what true collapse looks like.

> - central power collapse, the British people had to "look to their
> own defenses"

> - taxes stopped being collected

> - they stopped paying the administrators of the cities and trade
> routes

> - the previous professional military started taxing the civilians
> directly for protection. These groups grew into the basis of
> early medieval society

> - language was forgotten

> - people stopped being able to write

> - Britain's Roman cities fell into ruins. Cities abandoned.

> - Roman swords were found abandoned, dropped and left there. In
> this time a sword was what a mobile phone is today it would
> never be discarded.

> - "One day it seems, everyone just got up and left"

> - Tribal warlords some of which were officers in the former Roman
> army, moved in to the ruins and used them as private castles

> - trade at London's port stopped completely, suburbs were turned
> into farmland, people lacked the knowledge and will to rebuild.

> - Londons population drifted to the countryside and lived in
> primitive houses

> - Enclave of the ultra wealthy continued to live a Roman existence
> in a gated community. The decline was unstoppable and the rest of
> the city descended into chaos. People began to grow wheat in the
> middle of London. London was eventually deserted
> completely.
That's an amazing story.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

tim wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:36 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glKe9njOB24

Roman Britain - The Work of Giants Crumbled

If you start watching around 49:00 (though the entire video is worth watching), you can see what true collapse looks like.

- central power collapse, the British people had to "look to their own defenses"

- taxes stopped being collected

- they stopped paying the administrators of the cities and trade routes

- the previous professional military started taxing the civilians directly for protection. These groups grew into the basis of early medieval society

- language was forgotten

- people stopped being able to write

- Britain's Roman cities fell into ruins. Cities abandoned.

- Roman swords were found abandoned, dropped and left there. In this time a sword was what a mobile phone is today it would never be discarded.

- "One day it seems, everyone just got up and left"

- Tribal warlords some of which were officers in the former Roman army, moved in to the ruins and used them as private castles

- trade at London's port stopped completely, suburbs were turned into farmland, people lacked the knowledge and will to rebuild.

- Londons population drifted to the countryside and lived in primitive houses

- Enclave of the ultra wealthy continued to live a Roman existence in a gated community. The decline was unstoppable and the rest of the city descended into chaos. People began to grow wheat in the middle of London. London was eventually deserted completely.
I watched the video. There was something similar to that on the history channel in the 1990s (I think) which discussed how Hadrian's Wall had been abandoned when the empire stopped paying the soldiers. Since then, I have seen nothing similar, even though I've searched for exactly this type of thing, so thanks for this find.

Regarding the enclave of ultra wealthy who continued to live their lifestyle in a gated community for awhile. Some might aspire to that, but I would say be careful. The reason is that the rest of the population will be establishing themselves in the new reality. It will be to one's disadvantage to follow them and be the last to arrive in the hinterlands. Something like when Rome falls, do as the former Romans do.
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:20 am Being an elite seems to confer a few advantages now that may continue for a short time but, in my estimation, that time will be brief and unimportant in the big picture. I have a photo of my grandparents taken in 1965 at their farm which shows a hand pump (well), outhouse, windmill, and house (with no indoor plumbing). When the crisis hits with full force, I'd rather be the guy who spent the last 55 years on that farm exactly as it was than an elite in a gated community.
I feel I should post this type of caveat more often so here goes: I'm not strongly advocating that people adopt this opinion. Everyone should develop their own based on their unique experience and study. But it is definitely mine based on my unique experience and study. The above quote is part of that unique experience.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

The query is deeper than dollars also. Some of us have watched the dollar per watt since the seventy's oils issue.
We can observe we are not born with brains unto decency or solutions that cannot be integrated.
We have watched change agents for fifty years in this zone and others.
The price of avarice and arrogance are seen every day and standards cannot be implemented to
terms as in value. The light switch investments we do are the wheat from the chaff and no matter
what you think you have two standards. The economy branched in direction they cannot even understand or maintain.
The law of diminishing marginal utility is at the heart of the explanation of numerous economic phenomena we are told,
including time preference and the value of goods; and it also plays a crucial role in showing that socialism is
economically and ethically inferior to capitalism.

As noted facts are ignored in USED called South Africa used to have a decent electricity grid, but since the ANC have been in control, the state of the grid has deteriorated. The electricity supply was expanded out into the -hinterlands- prior to the 1994 franchise, but the new government only began to realise that the country needed new power stations in about 2004. So, bad design and even worse contractors were chosen to build the brand new Medupi and Kusile coal stations, to be ready for 2015. Now, in 2021, the last of the generators is STILL not yet completed.

thread: gic, amos
aeden
Posts: 13965
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/ ... 000-sq-km/
Zoe downloaded all of NASA’s available 16-day-increment vegetation data from 2000 to 2021. Here’s her result:

As we noted locally it took some years to fix our soil.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:39 pm I feel I should post this type of caveat more often so here goes: I'm not strongly advocating that people adopt this opinion. Everyone should develop their own based on their unique experience and study. But it is definitely mine based on my unique experience and study. The above quote is part of that unique experience.
Friedrich von Hayek was of the Austrian School of economics which included Joseph Schumpeter. They strongly disagreed with Keynesian economics prevalent today. They believed that as economic problems arise, they are resolved by the discovery and coordination of bits of knowledge and know-how, which are dispersed across society and are not available exclusively to any one agency, authority, or individual.
http://www.gdxforum.com/forum/search.ph ... mit=Search
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:12 pm
FA Hayek wrote:The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society - a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.
When I speak of computers controlling a monetary system in an information age economy, the computers must rise to a higher level of efficiency than what can result "from the free efforts of millions of individuals".
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 08-Mar-2021 World View: The Roaring 2020s

Yoicks!! The news from the analysts this morning: We're at a turning
point. The pandemic is ending. The economy is opening. And there
will be a $1.9 trillion stimulus. Nobody will be selling any more.
This is the roaring 2020s!! The market is a rocket ship ready for a
takeoff!!

David Tepper: You can't be bearish on stocks right now!!!
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:11 am ** 08-Mar-2021 World View: The Roaring 2020s

Yoicks!! The news from the analysts this morning: We're at a turning
point. The pandemic is ending. The economy is opening. And there
will be a $1.9 trillion stimulus. Nobody will be selling any more.
This is the roaring 2020s!! The market is a rocket ship ready for a
takeoff!!

David Tepper: You can't be bearish on stocks right now!!!
Yikes, this sounds like January 2018, when they were all bullish.

Bitcoin made its all time high on February 21. Oil made it's highest price since October 2018 last evening and is down over $2 from the high near $68.

If those highs can hold, maybe we'll see the end of the stocks bull market this month.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

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