Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

odysee
https://reclaimthenet.org/subscribe/
wake up

Shall we show the medical film of gangrenous tran-surgery results to convince the village idiots again
what depravity does?
As it was put they ran the demons out and simply they came here to eat the ignorant sheep.

thread: Feigenbaum

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:01 am
As noted the Feigenbaum Constant to chaos theory alludes them as they covet.
This was noted as by April it will be apparent.
The thread was and is Pharmakeia here as credited in Revelation 18 as the means by which all the ethnos/races are deceived.
The forensic studies already are pointing to issues. Locally one in thirteen will be disabled not including
the epitranscriptomics that will be devastating.

agree
script is closed
target value hit
all scrapes and scripts flushed
zero leverage going forward
hunter seeker as discussed

inception date Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:13 pm
thread: keynesian veil, 936, cci, amos, sogo

This is not desirable as it then leaves the enforcement agencies unable to track the percentage of those in the population who always resist attempts for control against them. The left is barren as the fig tree indicates.
Seeing a fig tree by the road, he went up to it but found nothing on it except leaves.
Then he said to it, "May you never bear fruit again!" Immediately the tree withered.

1795 up to the Communist revolution (Vol. 1) and then through to 1995 (Vol. 2) https://ia803108.us.archive.org/2/items ... gether.pdf
Sutton - Wall Street and the Rise of Hitler https://archive.org/details/pdfy-lwUqPAGSzT-3bnd3

viewtopic.php?p=14251#p14251 tfp from the discussions notes

If you are thinking please read Sean Mcmeekin again and save the dialectics for the children.
https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article ... e/1643/814 red blossom
The wise souls of the great fire wall also tell the closer you got to the Flower it was red with blood.
Many lessons from the souls missed.

page 28 https://archive.org/details/centuryofre ... 7/mode/2up
page 40 https://archive.org/details/centuryofre ... 9/mode/2up
English Civil Wars might more properly be called the British Civil Wars or the Wars of the Three Kingdoms.
The wars finally ended in 1651 with the flight of Charles II to France and, with him, the hopes of the British monarchy.

By then they left for these shores for common law.
viewtopic.php?p=53100#p53100

To consider the cynic a lost idealist is the tribunes only purpose
as postmodernism claims more. Weininger gored also upon the iron horns in the age of capitalism and Marxism; the age in which history, life, and science are reduced to economics and technology. The coldest of irony for another sealed of it. The inner bastard of governments for the same insane quest for another will in a Darwin maze of justification since Plato.
Here we leave the peace to the dead only and contract for the precondition for the existence of any rights at all.

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/04/ ... e-centers/
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... 81013.html
dual cults
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2021/04/ ... of-elites/#

This is the original Generational Dynamics Web Log Entry on The Principle of Maximum Ruin (October 23, 2005).

[A]n essay I've been working on for this web site [has] been taking way, way longer than I had expected. It's called "The Principle of Maximum Ruin": If you want to figure out what the market will do during a generational crash, then assume it will take the path that will ruin the most people, and that's the path it will follow.

The purpose of this long-delayed essay is to show why the upcoming crisis will much more devastating than you or anyone expect. I got the idea for it from the following paragraph from John Kenneth Galbraith's 1955 book, "The Great Crash - 1929":

"A common feature of all these earlier troubles [previous panics] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune." (p. 108)

Galbraith's point was that there were previous market panics, such as those occurring in 1903, 1907 and 1921, but that the market had recovered from them in a year or two. But that didn't happened after the 1929 panic.

Instead, the market kept falling.

Not only that, the market's up and downs following the 1929 crash occurred in such a way that more and more people were drawn in by false hopes to invest all their savings in the market. It was almost as if Adam Smith's "invisible hand" had turned into a perverse hand of doom.

The same thing is happening today, so far. The market recovered quickly from the panics of 1987 and 1997. The Nasdaq crash in 2000 was bad, and was made worse by 9/11, but now the market has recovered enough so that almost every investor today is back in the market, expecting it to go up.

A very simple computation, made by me and by other analysts, shows that the fundamental value of the stock market today is around Dow 4,500, and yet stock prices are at Dow [33,000], making the market far overpriced. This is also shown by current price/earnings ratios, as I've described many times. And yet investors today are in the same state of giddy denial as they were in 1929.

As I've been saying since 2002, Generational Dynamics tells us that we're entering a new 1930s style Great Depression, and that stock prices will fall to Dow 3,000-4,000 with certainty. As I've said many times, Generational Dynamics tells us where we're going, but not how we'll get there.

So how will we get there? Well, it's impossible to predict for sure, but we can look for guidance from the Principle of Maximum Ruin.

So what's the most likely thing for the market to do to ruin the greatest number of people? Obviously a crash in October would not be it, since everyone is prepared for it and expecting it.

The thing that would ruin the most people is for the market to do OK in October and into November, and then crash. Or maybe even get through the holiday season and then crash in January. Nothing like this has ever happened before, so almost everyone will be fooled. So if you believe the Principle of Maximum Ruin, then expect a panic and crash sometime after October.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 051023.htm


The market appears to be doing exactly what was described in this essay in 2005. If this essay had been written in October 2020 versus in October 2005, there is nothing here that needs to be changed except the current value of the Dow and some additional previous market panics.

"Galbraith's point was that there were previous market panics, such as those occurring in 1903, 1907 and 1921, but that the market had recovered from them in a year or two."

To 1987, 1997 and 2002 mentioned in the essay, we can add 2009 and perhaps 2020.

Maybe those additional episodes were necessary to create the necessary sentiment for The Principle of Maximum Ruin to take place.

It is well underway as even Dickens noted to the lacking discernment to Hume on the consequences.

edit:
The racist arsonists that live in these cities and hate the police are the ones to suffer and sooner then later.
Corporations will continue to move out and displaced cops will join suburban forces and are. With ZOOM and TEAMS we don’t need people commuting anymore, the left got its decreases of carbon too, win, win. So thanks to BLM, ANTIFA, the woke Progressives, the elitist academics and the Soros army we will now be more segregated than Jim Crow days. And no you can’t blame redlining, white people or institutionalized racism for this tale of two countries. As indicated since as in our case from 1640 onwards they are to stupid to understand contract or honest charity to those we serve in humility.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds- ... ance-lapse

Not our problem we considered values to be considerate as 480 years of advise from our Elders.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDKwCvD56kw

Been there done that. The defense supply nodes are well underway locally.
Rule of contract not appropriations by half wits.

https://twitter.com/DavidShafer/status/ ... 80/photo/1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqUa_G1h3pw

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:33 pm This is the original Generational Dynamics Web Log Entry on The Principle of Maximum Ruin (October 23, 2005).

[A]n essay I've been working on for this web site [has] been taking way, way longer than I had expected. It's called "The Principle of Maximum Ruin": If you want to figure out what the market will do during a generational crash, then assume it will take the path that will ruin the most people, and that's the path it will follow.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 051023.htm

Also from the essay:

..since this is the third in a series of... generational cycles (and the pattern is now well known)... the [path] will change due to our (or the regulators') recognition of it.

While the details of the statement from the web site reader implied that a stock market high may have come sooner than it actually did, enough more specific words such as reference to a 75 year cycle could be removed from the statement to make it generally apply to what actually did happen.

When the stock market and economy started to fail in 2006 and 2007, the public said, "Whoops, here comes Great Depression II," and the regulators said, "Whoops, we can't have another Great Depression so we will do everything in our power to prevent another one," which basically meant keeping the stock market up to create the appearance of a strong economy (Trump mentioned many times that the record stock market showed the strength of the US economy). We are well into a Generational Crisis period with the stock market (the more widely followed S&P 500) at a new record high as of Friday's close (but some other indices like the Nasdaq off their record highs of earlier in the year). Previous Generational Crisis periods had the stock market peaking early in the crisis, or even before the crisis.

Using Strauss and Howe's dates, the stock market prices peaked before the Civil War Fourth Turning (1860-1865) and early in the Great Depression and World War II Fourth Turning (1929-1946). However, it's interesting to note that while stock market prices peaked early in the Great Depression and World War II Fourth Turning, the PE ratio for the market bottomed toward the end of the fourth turning.

The above would provide the impetus for the maximum number of people to think that a repeat of 1929-1932 can't happen and therefore provide the setup for The Principle of Maximum Ruin to take place.

** 03-Apr-2021 World View: Mapping the current era to the 1920s

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:10 pm > While the details of the statement from the web site reader
> implied that a stock market high may have come sooner than it
> actually did, enough more specific words such as reference to a 75
> year cycle could be removed from the statement to make it
> generally apply to what actually did happen.

Your posts have brought back fond memories.

If you want to map the current era onto the 1920s, then the 2000
Nasdaq mini-crash corresponds to the 1921 stock market mini-crash.

Even more significant is that the False Panic of 1987 corresponds to
the False Panic of 1914, each of which occurs 58 years after the
previous real panic.

** Investors commemorate the false panic of Monday, October 19, 1987 (19-Oct-2007)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e071019


I was aware of this pattern in the mid-2000s, and I absolutely
expected the 2008 financial crisis to lead to a 1929-style panic and
crash. The thing that was completely unexpected was the huge influx
of quantitative easing, whose purpose was to prevent such a crash. It
was highly successful, but it didn't solve the core problems, and now
the quantitative easing has created a monstrous situation that is much
worse than 1929.

John wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:46 pm I was aware of this pattern in the mid-2000s, and I absolutely
expected the 2008 financial crisis to lead to a 1929-style panic and
crash. The thing that was completely unexpected was the huge influx
of quantitative easing, whose purpose was to prevent such a crash. It
was highly successful, but it didn't solve the core problems, and now
the quantitative easing has created a monstrous situation that is much
worse than 1929.

Interesting you say this now John.

I remember years back when you said there was no reason to believe the coming financial crisis would be any worse then the Great Depression.

This seems related to the discussion as the PE ratio has spent another 3 years drifting further and further above the average PE.

John wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:28 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: > The other day I was thinking to ask John what a mean reversion
> would look like in a case where he felt it should have reverted to
> the trendline and below to Dow 3000 whereas instead it has drifted
> further and further above the trendline.

I haven't updated this chart since 2015:



The area above the blue line has to equal the area below the blue
line. If the red line stays above the blue line for a long time, then
the red line will have to stay below the blue line for an equivalent
length of time.

Back in 2007, a web site reader updated my graph at that time to
illustrate this:



So even back in 2007, there was still a need for a lot of green below
the line to make up for the accumulated purple above the line. Today,
there's a lot more purple, so a lot more green will be needed. That
could mean that the P/E ratio could fall to 5 for a long period of
time, or fall close to 0 for a shorter period of time -- which could
mean that the Dow could fall below 1000. Or, maybe it'll be a new
dark age.