Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

https://merylnassmd.com/if-you-dont-col ... vent-data/ failtopia

So, when you control the statisticians, you have no fear of criticism for post hoc analyses,
https://merylnassmd.com/bill-gates-u-wa ... s-publish/

thread: data fragility

In the early months of the pandemic Dr Zelenko provided a model for a substantive study of HCQ. His high risk patients on HCQ, zinc and AZT had more than a 75% less risk of hospitalization than the patients of another doctor in his community.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7920304258
https://covexit.com/early-home-treatmen ... explained/

The Carlucci study of HCQ plus zinc and AZT from NYU reported half the deaths.
https://www.microbiologyresearch.org/co ... m.0.001250
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20080036v1

Instead we got these junk studies and even worse. Oxford's UK Recovery Trial was giving 2000mg HCQ to hospitalized patients on the first day, more than double the dose that the UK Formulary recommends. Is it any wonder that more of the treated participants died?

Clown World.

The purpose of this and similar posts is to show what The Principle of Maximum Ruin has come to in my case. The principle is stated as:

If you want to figure out what the market will do during a generational crash, then assume it will take the path that will ruin the most people, and that's the path it will follow.

Quoting Galbraith, in the case of anyone staying out of the market or going short during this Generational Crisis, "What looked one day like the end [the end of the bull market in the current context] proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune."

The S&P 500 has more than doubled since its peak of 1552 in the year 2000 during the Unraveling, and it's also more than doubled since its peak of 1576 in the year 2007 before the financial crisis. With the S&P 500 currently over 4000, and only a very small percentage of the population getting the benefit of that increase in the market, the suffering on the way up has been maximized and is set up to be maximized when the market crashes. From the standpoint of The Principle of Maximum Ruin, my interpretation would be that the primary purpose of the rise in the market has been to suck in all the people who previously believed a second Great Depression was coming, and to suck in the maximum number of people at the highest level of the market possible. The secondary purpose is for the market to rise until every last short is destroyed. After the maximum number of people are sucked in on the long side and every last short is destroyed, then the market can begin the process of ruthless liquidation in the other direction so as to ruin nearly everyone else on the way down.

In my case, to avoid being ruined, I've had to buy stocks from time to time to avoid losses as the market rose and to build my account back up so that I am not ruined and can be short when the market finally starts to crash. I've been doing that since November of last year, and at other times before that. When I buy stocks, I use a small percentage of my account at any given time and flip the stock quickly so that I am not holding much stock in the event the market starts to crash. It can be seen that by engaging in this activity I have actually been doing my part to feed the bull market and drive stocks to even greater heights.

Even if someone had done an unleveraged short at the 2007 peak (selling only the value of stock equivalent to the money in the account) and stayed in that short position, by the time the market doubled, that person would have lost all of their money.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 8:25 am Bot smashing for the sessions since the above post. I'm no longer short.

I haven't posted one of these since the morning of March 19. These are my bot smashing results since then.



This morning I'm going short via the -1x S&P 500 ETF. I plan to stay there as long as I'm able, as I think the S&P is close enough to a top. I won't be doing any more bot smashing from here on out, as all my money will be tied up in the short position.

To summarize, the purpose of the above is not to prove that I am a great day trader or anything like that, it's to show what The Principle of Maximum Ruin has come to in my case. I think the market is way overvalued and the worst crash in the history of the world is coming soon.

Even those who were previously the most dyed in the wool bears are saying to me, "Why are you going short when you can make all this money day trading stocks?" That helps to prove The Principle of Maximum Ruin. The market is sucking in the maximum number of believers at the top so it can ruin the maximum number of people when it crashes.

Mom and pop have finally, after a year, decided to pretty much go all-in.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/stat ... 8834635776


When Wall Street is scrambling to make it easier for retail to participate in schemes "formerly only available to the elite," hold onto your wallet.

You could flip the dates on these articles not be able to tell the difference.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/stat ... 5777071112

Option buyers today went off the reservation into Friday.
Book4 open for hedge. Modest increase.
Glassy eyed true believer phase growing.

drunk pools trswaps - blood trail and they will be ripped apart.
https://worldstarhiphop.com/videos/vide ... Q77FG5u06X
hunter seeker algos will destroy them other than 13f bots

synthetic cod swaps elsewhere could care less

T notes --- Which is why we leave the last word to an equity PM and member of the Bear Traps chat room who summarized the situation perfectly:
“Insane bubble, like mania, like madness. We just have to review the family office chap running a position of $100B (estimated numbers). He dropped $15B of equity -his NAV -and banks lost a further $10B as they executed stop outs... These are insane numbers of a gambler...Yet it’s brushed off after 24 hours and it’s back to buying...

Couldn't have said it better.

we are here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqcCUNbhdhU

Six Times In 91 Years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4C8zgCJplI

day by day
do not get stuck on a story
draw downs exist and glassy eyes exist in both camps also

Maximum drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time...

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:12 am Even those who were previously the most dyed in the wool bears are saying to me, "Why are you going short when you can make all this money day trading stocks?" That helps to prove The Principle of Maximum Ruin. The market is sucking in the maximum number of believers at the top so it can ruin the maximum number of people when it crashes.

I said previously, and I say it again, that I think your call of 4200 for the S&P 500 top will be close to the actual. I have a technical analysis target of 4175 for this week. Yes, I think we are close to serious action. But lets see: You never know!

Gold is perking up. I think it will be a safe haven for a while at least, but in the end all will be devastated

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org ... enario.pdf
December 30, 2025
Do not think for a few more years.
https://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?k ... sf=msgonly
thread: 40xx, 936, salem
Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:36 pm
I consider a bump up on flows seen.
The informal economy will find a way as before.
The rotation is the query so we will stay on topic with dxy and metals for now as directional blinkers changing lanes
like a 56 Buick on cruise.
Light switch investments have not to date worried us much.
The internals are more suspect on board of director monkey business
looting is more troublesome we incline to note.
Cryto IPO looting will be legendary.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lea ... -all-along

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUiARNgmQ1k
https://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?k ... sf=msgonly
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fre ... estaurants

richard5za wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:00 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:12 am Even those who were previously the most dyed in the wool bears are saying to me, "Why are you going short when you can make all this money day trading stocks?" That helps to prove The Principle of Maximum Ruin. The market is sucking in the maximum number of believers at the top so it can ruin the maximum number of people when it crashes.

I said previously, and I say it again, that I think your call of 4200 for the S&P 500 top will be close to the actual. I have a technical analysis target of 4175 for this week. Yes, I think we are close to serious action. But lets see: You never know!

Initially I thought the top would be sometime in March at 4200, maybe March 26 if I had to put a specific date on it, but a lot of error associated with that. To the 4200 I could have added plus or minus 144 but at the time the market was far from it. With some time having gone by, I would modify that to April 9 or 12 and 4100. But the top could have easily been yesterday given some of the short term things being seen. I've finished shorting this morning and my account is almost 100% tied up in short positions. So I can't smash a bot even if I want to.

Having said all that, if the top is within 2 months and 200 points from here, that will be good.

Off topic, but maybe interesting to some

Vulcan's Anvil
March's I Spy revealed
by Sally Bjork

From the April, 2010 issue

"I Spy 'Vulcan's Anvil' on North Campus," writes Alex Cao. "Who knows why Spock needs a hammer in the 24th Century?" Who indeed, but in the twentieth century Vulcan's Anvil, by an unknown artist and dated 1904, "was used as part of the initiations of a secret engineering society," writes Jana Valdez. It's located "just outside the Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS) building," writes Brian Rumao. "I pass it every day while walking to engineering classes!" "It was in back of West Engineering [now West Hall]...when I was in engine school (50s)," writes Tom Jameson.

https://annarborobserver.com/articles/v ... GyBuxgXCM-




I was walking across campus late one night and saw 5 or 6 people gathered around this anvil in a circle all dressed in black robes and bowing. It appeared to me to be some kind of Satanic ritual.

Last night, I mentioned this incident to my sister because she was lamenting about the evil that seems to be permeating the world. I told her that in the years since I witnessed this, I've only mentioned it maybe 3 or 4 times. Like most, I push such things to the back of my mind unless prompted. I said to her I wonder where these people are today and what they are doing.