Financial topics

[aeden]

Where California goes, so goes the rest of the Country.
The State of California is driving new vehicle purchases by both the "electorate" and municipalities towards electric vehicles. In Northern California, during the summertime, we often have "roving" blackouts because of excessive demand on the electrical grid.

When we have high winds, the electricity is shut down in the foothills because of the fire danger posed by electric utility lines. Many of PG&E's lines are above ground because of lack of investment in infrastructure. Until 2018, PG&E paid a dividend in excess of 3%. As a result, profits were directed to investors, rather than reinvested in infrastructure. PG&E is regulated by the Public Utilities Commission, a state agency.

This summer, we are expecting severe drought conditions. Taking into consideration the information above, what do you think this summer is going to be like in California?

I am not hearing anything about investment in the electrical grid or anything for that matter being done to increase capacity.

Stalin's plucked chickens waiting for feed after it feathers ripped out is all they are.

Environmentalists are in D.C. trends from ALL fossil fuels, natural gas included.
Last real check was five percent was all they had for inputs on one raw.
Years they have know how blatantly ignorant they truly are per watt/dollar.
And you wonder why we laugh at even the CME derivative's.

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/min ... lity-check

Utter morons as since by 2050, with current plans, the quantity of worn-out solar panels—much of it nonrecyclable—will constitute double the tonnage of all today’s global plastic waste, along with over 3 million tons per year of unrecyclable plastics from worn-out wind turbine blades.
By 2030, more than 10 million tons per year of batteries will become garbage.

For example, replacing the energy output from a single 100-MW natural gas-fired turbine, itself about the size of a residential house (producing enough electricity for 75,000 homes), requires at least 20 wind turbines, each one about the size of the Washington Monument, occupying some 10 square miles of land.

[aeden]

Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, and provides an explanation of long-term oscillations in demographic, social, and political structures of complex societies. This book tests that theory’s specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.

[aeden]

Unmodified Bitcoin Core includes the code to implement Taproot, but disabled. When Taproot activates, it will not enforce the new rules, and may fall out of consensus. Update 2021-05-01: An alternate client being called simply "Bitcoin Core 0.21.1" was just released that will remain in consensus if and only if miners signal within the first 3 months. It is still recommended to run the dedicated Taproot Client release.

Compact fraud proof for SPV nodes
Bitcoin right now only has two real security models. A user either runs a full-node which validates every block with all rules in the system, or a SPV (Simple Payment Verification) client which only validates the headers as a proof of publication of some transactions. The Bitcoin whitepaper suggested that SPV nodes may accept alerts from full nodes when they detect an invalid block, prompting the SPV node to download the questioned blocks and transactions for validation. This approach, however, could become a DoS attack vector as there is virtually no cost to generate a false alarm. An alarm must come with a compact, yet deterministic fraud proof.

In the current Bitcoin protocol, it is possible to generate compact fraud proof for almost all rules except a few:

It is not possible to prove a miner has introduced too many Bitcoins in the coinbase transaction outputs without showing the whole block itself and all input transactions.
It is not possible to prove the violation of any block specific constraints, such as size and sigop limits, without showing the whole block (and all input transactions in the case of sigop limit)
It is not possible to prove the spending of a non-existing input without showing all transaction IDs in the blockchain way back to the genesis block.
Extra witness data can be committed that allows short proofs of block invalidity that SPV nodes can quickly verify:
Sum trees for transaction fee can be committed making it possible to construct short proofs that the miner does not add excessive fees to the coinbase transaction. Similar for the block size and sigop count limit.
Backlinks for the outputs spent by the transaction's inputs can be provided. These backlinks consist of a block hash and an offset that thin clients can easily query and check to verify that the outputs exist.
These commitments could be included in the extensible commitment structure through a soft fork and will be transparent to nodes that do not understand such new rules.
New script system
Since a version byte is pushed before a witness program, and programs with unknown versions are always considered as anyone-can-spend script, it is possible to introduce any new script system with a soft fork. The witness as a structure is not restricted by any existing script semantics and constraints, the 520-byte push limit in particular, and therefore allows arbitrarily large scripts and signatures.

Examples of new script system include Schnorr signatures which reduce the size of multisig transactions dramatically, Lamport signature which is quantum computing resistance, and Merklized abstract syntax trees which allow very compact witness for conditional scripts with extreme complexity.

https://users.encs.concordia.ca/~clark/ ... e/L16b.pdf

thread: alice

[aeden]

Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:59 am
After documenting abuses of power in his local party government He was sentenced to four years.
The collapse will continue since they cannot advance effective temporal change or arrest the dynamics that cause the decline
over time. As in our cases also the abrogated point of the hive mind is a decline of nominal terms to effects.


https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Fraud+Case+Ag ... ave&ia=web
https://www.waynedupree.com/2021/05/sus ... l-trending

The 909-word statement came after the state attorney general's office told CNN that it was joining the Manhattan District Attorney's Office in its criminal investigation into the company.

[aeden]

With more than 3,000 rockets having been fired into Israel by Hamas recently, the Demshevic Party seems paralyzed over how to respond.

[aeden]

Bets Are Soaring That Oil Hits $100 By December

We guessed $80.00 specs cannot cover that much ground.

[aeden]

Our government and media seem like two of the biggest evil, criminal enterprises on the planet, thanks to this “COVID pandemic” and the 2020
https://www.waynedupree.com/2021/05/bid ... l-trending
election. Now, many people don’t believe a word either of them says.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5YOhcAof8I

[aeden]

https://cultofthedeadfish.blogspot.com/ ... agent.html

https://www.savethemales.ca/002026.html

http://occoffeestop.com/Stalin_and_the_Chicken.html

Filling in rabbit holes.

It does not matter why but most will do it as a simple unconscious exercise of a
choice between them or you. Then there are others who will hurt you on purpose because they don’t like
you or they feel threatened by you. And finally some will hurt you just because they can.

Every day the same script runs.
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/ ... ate-israel


I just asked my 7 year old brother what he learned in school & he said "They're teaching us to be stupid" Ashley ..


BreitbartNews
Gaza has spent $175 million on terror rockets in a week but has no money for vaccines or education. Let that sink in for a moment.

[aeden]

Zone is now 80 percent ranked at least abnormally dry.
We already had that discussion into cycle 25.

https://34pejf387dm41c0xgyzoml71-wpengi ... 24x853.png

We planed last decade locally since we are less than thinking children.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGVmnFkUX2g

into the model

"Hope they know what they are doing."

lulz

http://faculty.bennington.edu/~sherman/ ... 202019.pdf

http://www.jlakes.org/ch/reader/view_ab ... /2017.0601

We suggest you stop treating us as vassals and more as friends trying to trade above margin.........

[richard5za]

** 20-May-2021 World View: P/E ratio, M2V, birth rate, and CPI

> My take on the stock market based upon about 150 years of history
> is that fair value is a P/E of 18 in good times and 13 in
> difficult economic times. But the PE is currently well over 30 on
> S&P 500. History shows it always overshoots when it corrects, in
> some cases to a PE of 5 or 6. So the maths says the minimum it
> will come off is 50%. But as PE of 5 gives it a fall of 85%. Not
> over a few weeks but over a couple of years even 3 or 4 years

> What I don't know is when the fall will start or the nature of the
> initial trigger.

> The real question is identifying the assets to be invested in when
> the fall starts. US dollar, gold miners, cash in your trading
> account?

This bifurcation of the p/e ratio index into good vs difficult
economic times is very interesting. Since you've studied the history,
perhaps you could explain further what you mean by good vs economic
times, since that isn't always obvious, and how the p/e ratio relates
to them.

Getting back to your original observation, Richard, the P/E ratio is
astronomically high today, as it was prior to the 1929 panic. Do you
see any further relationships with the indicators I've been
discussing?

Hi John (and Vince)
Mathematically the main driver of stock prices is the P/E ratio. If the P/E ratio increases from 10 to 15 without a change in earnings the prices goes up 50%. If the economy is growing at an above average 4% and this this is what the S&P 500 is also doing then assuming the P/E ratio remains unchanged the stock price grows only 4%
So stock prices have their cycles often called bull and bear but P/E ratio has its own seperate cycle so it needs its own name to differeniate it from stock prices.
On the back of a US dollar note you will see the words "Novis ordo seclorum" - (new order of the ages which goes back to the founding of the United States)
So we might call P/E ratio cycles "Secula PE cycles" so that they are different to stock price cycles and secula refers to an era or PE cycle rather than stock prices
During the 20th century from 1900 to 1999 there were 4 up secula PE cycles and 4 down cycles on the Dow.
If you have a look at Crestmont Research he analyses and charts this very well.
He also analyses the main driver of the PE ratio and comes to the conclusion that the most correlaterd driver is inflation (both positive and negative) Have a look at his scattergram and see for your self.
So looking at history when inflation is low (around plus/ minus 2%) and the economy is growing at average or above there is a tendency for a high P/E ratio. I use the word tendency since the issues and correlations are about shades of grey rather than black/white
However when inflation is above average or negative there is a tendency for a lower PE ratio. When there is a correction from a very high PE ratio there is an over reaction and PE ratio can go very low e.g. 5 or 6
PE ratios of over 25 and under 10 are usually bubble or over reaction situations but it is possible to estimate from history fair value for low inflation good growth and this comes out at about 18% or 3 to 4 points above the long term average. Fair value for a PE ratio in adverse inflation conditions is below average and around 13.
Fair value by definition is a long term average.
Predicting inflation is the key point, the main influencer and what Vince is writing about.
But relating your other points and influencing factors to PE ratio or inflation (since they are connected anyway) requires a lot of reseach. Maybe someone has done it. I'm very tied up at present but will have a look next week.
Regards, Richard