Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

Present conditions

On October 14, 2024, the U.S. equity market reached the most extreme level of valuation in history, based on the measures we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year returns across a century of market cycles.

The chart below shows our estimate of the 12-year “equity risk premium” of the S&P 500, defined as the expected 12-year average annual total return of the S&P 500 over and above Treasury bond returns. The current estimate is -9.9% annually.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc241017/

[Higgenbotham]

19:03
reference the beige book you're like who
19:05
cares about the beige book The Fed does
19:09
because that is all 12 districts
19:11
Nationwide Gathering reconnaissance on
19:14
the ground from companies that sell
19:16
things companies that service things
19:18
companies that make things and when you
19:20
have all 12 districts report in one
19:24
month we're seeing declining consumption
19:27
you have the Fed staff with their hair
19:29
on fire so that's the 50 basis points
19:31
that was the 50 basis points

Danielle DiMartino Booth: Economic Disaster is Coming

https://youtu.be/BLdMBA1yzY4?t=1160

Background to the above:

18:14
portraying is that what that means so a
18:18
little inside baseball here the
18:22
1983 1990 and 2001 recessions in the
18:26
United States of America never saw a
18:29
decline in consumption

[Higgenbotham]

19:18
when you
19:20
have all 12 districts report in one
19:24
month we're seeing declining consumption
19:27
you have the Fed staff with their hair
19:29
on fire

The problem is this isn't the 1920s or 1930s. Whether there was deflation as in the US or hyperinflation as in Weimar, the sole proprietor had nowhere to go and kept his business open with reduced throughputs and lower income. The large corporate retail businesses that exist today don't operate on that model. With reduced thoughputs they lay off and close units. When enough units are closed the fixed overheads are too high to make profit. A sole proprietor can survive a 50% contraction of throughput but a mega corporation can not make a profit at some percentage of contraction and the wealthy owners can be fine with closing the doors because they don't need the business to survive and have no incentive to keep losing money.

The wasting process Bernanke has employed has had 4 effects - depletion of savings to reconstitute, depletion of time to reconstitute due to the aging of the population, depletion of knowledge to reconstitute, and depletion of opportunities to reconstitute as the general economy has become more unsound and unstable.

Regarding the aging of the population, the peak of the baby boom was from 1957 to 1961. So next year this segment of the population will turn 63 to 67 years old. If Greenspan had taken his foot off the accelerator and let an economic depression happen 20 years ago when this segment of the population was 43 to 47 years old and still had the energy and experience to rebuild the economy, I believe things would have turned out better than they will otherwise.

[vincecate]

So I have run .ai for Anguilla for about 30 years but my run will end Jan 15, 2025.
So my income will mostly end.

Hope my investments are good. Long Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, short S&P.
Three out of four have been good this past year, and Higgy's view is compatible with my fourth.
Think my chances are good.

[vincecate]

Mark Halperin on Why He Thinks Trump Will Win and the Left’s Mental Collapse

https://youtu.be/vV_WDBqE8VI?t=6918

I wonder if this election could be the trigger for the market crash?
If a huge fraction of the population is headed for a mental collapse,
perhaps their risk tolerance will go down. What do people think?

[aedens]

It was discussed to accuracy Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:13 am from Higgs and your views also.
The structural inflation has mirrored two other period we studied.
Others to include is Niederhoffer and also Hendry to see the plumbing of the vantage in a time window of study.
Our current pathway we see is correct as you again correctly viewed. The affairs of MMT have them captive
as we understand control the debt to control the conflict post WW2 to the affairs we see today also.

Read chapter one for edification and trend the 10 year bonds fund for what the market has picked up on recently.
Emptor.

The trip south cannot be worded as the people of the Book and Letter understand the root issue in this season also.
https://www.academia.edu/15229829/The_E ... _Education

https://x.com/thackerpd/status/18487554 ... 36/photo/1
No evil thing will escape His Day that will be. They are thus sealed.

Darkest Age™.

Prevalent throughout the economy is the expectation as the further inflation in the overriding concerns
in the consciousness of the wasting of consumers and actual businesses under attack from it.

Our Women will pray your Island. Not greater insult can be done than that.

[aedens]

https://vdare.com/

You are in peril of abject debauchery and have been, but you know this.

Even 227 reasons will allude you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBxLT4GiOHw

[Higgenbotham]

More than half, 53%, of U.S. workers said they faced "bait-and-switch" tactics while being hired for a new job, where the job responsibilities advertised during the interview process "differed significantly" once they started their role, according to a survey of 2,900 global workers from Greenhouse, the hiring platform.

And despite increasing pay transparency efforts, some 42% of U.S. job-seekers say the originally advertised salary for a job opening changed after multiple rounds of interviews, according to the report.

Experiencing a bait-and-switch during job interviews is a frustrating candidate experience and highlights one of the many breakdowns in today's hiring process, says Jon Stross, president and co-founder of Greenhouse.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careers ... 012&ei=160

[Higgenbotham]

Flame retardants found in thousands of consumer products linked to cancer in people for first time
By Sandee LaMotte, CNN
Updated 3:49 PM EDT, Mon April 1, 2024

Flame retardants added for decades to thousands of consumer products in the United States may raise the risk of dying from cancer, according to new research.

People with the highest levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers, or PBDEs, in their blood had approximately a 300% increased risk of dying from cancer compared with people with the lowest levels, the study found.

“To our knowledge, this is the first study examining the association of PBDE exposure with risk of cause-specific mortality in the general adult population from the US,” the authors wrote.

Exposure to PDBEs is nothing new — tests have found most people in the United States have these endocrine disruptors in their blood at levels that are about three to 10 times greater than those found in people in European nations, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Flame retardant chemicals also can pass to developing fetuses via the placenta and to newborns through breast milk, past research has found.

Today, PBDEs are the greatest contributor to intellectual disability in children, resulting in a total loss of 162 million IQ points and more than 738,000 cases of intellectual disability, according to an August 2020 study.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/01/health/f ... index.html

These chemicals are closely related to PBB, discussed a couple pages back:

Also, several decades ago, a flame retardant, PBB, was mixed with animal feed in Michigan, getting into the food supply across the state. It was obvious that several of the interviewees, while they may have been somewhat intelligent at some time in the distant past, are suffering from cognitive impairment.

[Higgenbotham]

White House Sides with Chemical Industry, Yanks EPA Public Health Efforts

September 6, 2013


WASHINGTON (September 6, 2013) – The Obama Administration today moved to protect chemical-industry secrets from consumers and undermine health protections by withdrawing two pending proposals that would have helped inform the public about potentially dangerous chemicals.

One would have listed bisphenol A (BPA), eight phthalates, and a class of flame retardants known as PBDEs (polybrominated diphenyl ethers)—as “chemicals of concern.” The other would have made it harder for chemical companies to claim health and safety studies of new chemicals as confidential business information to shield them from public scrutiny.

Daniel Rosenberg, senior attorney in the public health program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, issued this statement in response:

“Today’s disappointing news means this: The White House is catering to the interests of Dow, BASF, Exxon and other chemical manufacturers, and failing to protect the health of the American people. They are keeping information secret and stifling public debate on toxic chemicals the American people are widely exposed to now, and may endanger children’s health and the environment. Also, the White House blocked EPA’s efforts to help the public learn about new chemicals that raise health and environmental concerns.

“This is wrong, which is why it’s being done on a Friday afternoon, typically when administrations release information for which they know they ought to be ashamed.”

https://www.nrdc.org/press-releases/whi ... th-efforts

As we've noted here, neither side is focused on the health of the population but there is instead a laser-like focus on enhancing the power and profits of large corporations, who in the big picture only serve to convert natural resources into toxics and garbage. There is no such thing as a large green corporation. Also, in the big picture, whether it's Harris or Trump will only alter the path to the bottom of the new dark age, when the bottom is reached centuries hence.