Financial topics

[aeden]

Only half of you grifter PC crackers are retarded.

Yea we did. Sun Apr 17, 2016 4:17 pm
Todays tactical.
11. Establish and rely upon fall-back positions. Using a minor matter or element of the facts, take the “high road” and “confess” with candor that some innocent mistake, in hindsight, was made — but that opponents have seized on the opportunity to blow it all out of proportion and imply greater criminalities which, “just isn’t so.” Others can reinforce this on your behalf, later. Done properly, this can garner sympathy and respect for “coming clean” and “owning up” to your mistakes without addressing more serious issues.
The operation was well done to and from Frankfurt.

https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com ... -this-one/

thread: Amos 3:7, Peleg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUn7sRNJqTk

Point out the National Socialist and watch their head explode as the true issues of the Global Governance will be the start of the actual end.
The Borders you ignored will seal you to facts you will not be able to ignore in that Hour. He will not care what you think.

[Higgenbotham]

This morning I'm going short via the -1x S&P 500 ETF. I plan to stay there as long as I'm able, as I think the S&P is close enough to a top. I won't be doing any more bot smashing from here on out, as all my money will be tied up in the short position.

I'm still short and waiting. I didn't leverage with futures when the market crossed 4200, as I had previously indicated I would. I went about another 5% short and that was it.

Still short. I've been selling small amounts of unleveraged short (-1x S&P 500 ETF) and redeploying into leveraged short (-2x S&P 500 ETF) when the S&P is higher than where I got out of -1x. Today I am 125% short.

[Higgenbotham]

** 31-May-2021 World View: Liquidity flows

> The Fed has been draining hundreds of billions of liquidity out of
> the system of late.

> https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/aut ... 01/01/2000

I don't understand all the ins and outs of all these liquidity flows,
but I take note of the fact that you're saying that the Fed is
removing liquidity (which would strengthen the dollar) at the same
time that China's PBOC is taking steps to weaken the yuan.

Rapid appreciation of China's yuan not sustainable, says former PBOC official
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-e ... SL2N2NH042

> "Investors had increased their bets on further
> strength in the Chinese unit after the PBOC appeared not to show
> discomfort with recent gains. But big state-owned banks were seen
> buying U.S. dollars early last week in a move seen as an effort to
> temper fast yuan gains."

I would consider it possible either way -- that these concurrent moves
are independent or coordinated.

I didn't try to provide any interpretation of this because I don't think I am capable of doing so. The way I am using this data is to guess that this may be happening because of the end of the SLR exemption, which was discussed here a couple months ago. Whether that's right or not, I don't know.

This was the previous discussion on the World View News thread:

** 19-Mar-2021 World View: SLR Protections

> I am reading a lot lately about the Fed removing something called
> "SLR" protections for banks.

> "The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the
> temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for
> depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as
> scheduled on March 31, 2021."

> It seems that without the SLR protections,

> "banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell
> preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on
> reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order)
> just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into
> the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account."

> I was fully expecting the Fed to extend the protections, but now
> it seems there is a lot of political pressure to NOT extend
> them. It could be that they are trying just to pander to the
> politician temporarily, but it seems that this could be one of the
> final straws if this is not extended.

> I am curious as to Higgenbotham's take on this.

There's been a lot of commentary about this on the financial channels
this morning.

According to the commentary, these protections were put into effect
during the Covid crisis, but now they're being removed. This is going
to increase 10-year bond yields -- and in fact the yields already
spiked on the news -- and that's going to affect tech stocks, since
tech stocks are riskier than 10-year bonds.

On the other hand, bank stocks should benefit, because they'll be able
to make more loans, and so they'll make more money.

**** Federal Reserve to end supplemental leverage ratio capital break
https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/federal-r ... tal-break/

I don't have any particular take that goes beyond the commentary. During Powell's press conference Wednesday, he was asked about this and said he would not comment at that time, but that there would be an upcoming announcement. Later in the press conference, Steve Liesman asked Powell about the 10-year treasury rate and whether the Fed would consider doing another operation twist. Powell replied that the Fed is OK with things as they are. The back and forth with Liesman starts at 28:40 here:

https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/fe ... ket-update

Where the transcript says "Howard Schneider" that was actually Liesman speaking.

Whether Powell is right not to be overly concerned by what is going on in the bond market, I don't know. My feeling, expressed a few days ago, was that there might be some hiccups, but beyond that I'm not guessing.

Since this was discussed on March 19, the 10 year treasury yield has bumped along sideways as the reverse repos have steadily increased. As I'd mentioned over the weekend, the reverse repos crossed $100 billion on March 30 and are now close to $500 billion.

At the March meeting, the Fed increased the amount of cash counterparties can lend to $80 billion from $30 billion.

[Higgenbotham]

From reading the news, the explanation for the increase in the use of the reverse repo facility is, with the end of the SLR exemption, banks reduced treasury holdings. As a result, some banks are turning away deposits. That cash is being redirected toward money market funds and they are parking it in the reverse repo facility for lack of better alternatives.

Bloomberg is automatically limiting the amount of text I can copy out of the article, so I did the above summary and the entire article can be read here:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/f ... verse-repo

[John]

** 02-Jun-2021 World View: Copying text

> From reading the news, the explanation for the increase in the use
> of the reverse repo facility is, with the end of the SLR
> exemption, banks reduced treasury holdings. As a result, some
> banks are turning away deposits. That cash is being redirected
> toward money market funds and they are parking it in the reverse
> repo facility for lack of better alternatives.

> Bloomberg is automatically limiting the amount of text I can copy
> out of the article, so I did the above summary and the entire
> article can be read here:

> https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/f ... verse-repo

Yikes! I don't have that problem, since I run with javascript turned
off as much as possible. I use the "noscript" addon to Firefox
which is incredibly good, since it gives me a lot of control.

I can't stand running with javascript on. It seems that every page
has all sorts of unwanted popups and other blinking crap apparently
targeting teenagers. I've recently also begun using the "DOM Delete"
addon which lets you delete various garbage elements on the page, even
when javascript is turned on.

Another possibility if you want a text copy of a page, might be
to print the page to a PDF file, open the file in Acrobat, and
use "Save as text ...". That might or might not work.

If you have to convert to text often, there are online OCR services.
Several years ago I purchased the Omnipage program, which was
expensive, which I use all the time. But I think now they've turned
it into a SaaS, which I don't like.

Anyway, here's the text from the Bloomberg article you referenced. I
also including links to the images in the article, although the images
may or may not be displayed since Bloomberg doesn't like that:

The Fed Is Mopping Up Its Own Mess in Reverse Repo

Brian Chappatta
May 28 2021, 8:01 PM
May 31 2021, 5:35 AM

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve been
tweeting near-daily updates of the following chart, which shows the
amount of cash placed at the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse
repurchase facility. Use soared to a record $485.3 billion on
Thursday, capping an unprecedented surge: The Fed Is Mopping Up Its
Own Mess in Reverse Repo



The account balance has been declining as the Treasury disburses
fiscal aid to fight the Covid-19 pandemic and prepares for the debt
ceiling to come back into play later this year. Often, as was the case
recently with stimulus payments to state and local governments, that
cash makes it way into money-market funds, which then need to invest
it somewhere. As the previous look at front-end rates clearly showed,
reverse repo is an obvious choice.

Treasury’s swift reduction in its cash balance shouldn’t have
surprised anyone. I wrote in December that short-term rates were
headed for zero and that the Fed might have to intervene, perhaps by
selling short-dated Treasuries outright to counter a decline in bill
issuance. Yet the central bank hasn’t done much to tweak its bond
purchases, which are advertised as a way to provide accommodative
monetary policy on top of near-zero interest rates and won’t be
touched until the economy makes “substantial further progress.” Policy
makers chose not to shift the buying away from the front end, knowing
what was coming down the line.

Another problem with barreling forward with bond buying on autopilot,
as was made clear during March when markets were fretting about the
supplementary leverage ratio, is that it’s overwhelming some of the
biggest U.S. banks. They don’t want any more reserves because it means
they need to hold more capital, but that’s exactly what happens when
the Fed is adding so many assets to its balance sheet (reserves at the
Fed are the offsetting liability).

So, naturally, the only thing left for primary dealers to do was to
scale back on their Treasury holdings: The Fed Is Mopping Up Its Own
Mess in Reverse Repo



Again, this was the natural result of ending the SLR exemption. I
wrote in March that it looked as if the Fed was trapped, suggesting
that perhaps a middle ground would be allowing reserves and Treasuries
accumulated during the pandemic to be exempted. Instead, policy makers
opted for a clean break, even as bankers like JPMorgan Chase &
Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon raised the prospect of these
regulations forcing them to turn away deposits.

It wasn’t an empty threat: reportedly some banks are doing just
that. That cash instead gets redirected toward — you guessed it —
money-market funds, which need to invest it somewhere. Yet again,
there’s the Fed’s reverse-repo facility ready to absorb it. As of
mid-March, it increased its limits to $80 billion per counterparty
from $30 billion. It “reflects the growth and evolution of U.S. dollar
funding markets since the limit was last changed in 2014.” On
Thursday, the Fed added two more money-market funds to its approved
list, from T. Rowe Price Group and Vanguard Group. Fidelity
Investments has 11 funds that are reverse-repo counterparties. Even
quant pioneer Dimensional Fund Advisors has one.

It’s unclear whether the Fed can do much to slow this pickup in the
use of its reverse-repo facility. It’s also quite likely that central
bankers don’t see it as a problem. Remember, it allows the central
bank to defend the so-called zero lower bound of short-term rates. So
far, it’s accomplishing that task, with the fed funds rate steady at
0.06%. Rather than force even more reserves onto banks, which can’t
make enough loans relative to deposits, persistently huge reverse-repo
operations are a tidy solution to soak up all the cash that’s seeping
out into money markets, especially with funds content to earn nothing
for now.

Still, central bankers might eventually give in and raise the
so-called administered rates that the Fed pays at its reverse-repo
facility and on excess reserves (IOER). The fact that they haven’t yet
done so potentially suggests some concern about the optics of raising
rates, even if it’s for technical reasons. But the prospect of money
funds closing to new investors or offering negative returns, as
suggested by Bank of America Corp. strategist Mark Cabana, might be
seen as enough of a systemic risk to force their hands.

For now, though, the startling reverse-repo chart can be viewed as a
mess created by the Fed that it’s mopping up itself.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial
board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt
markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a
CFA charterholder.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P. Bloomberg

[aeden]

I wonder how much if any of the PAK debt is being mopped up with that SIV.

As we noted Blackrock is the government fund facility's as the other dark pool guys we do know here also.
This goes back to the Pete Peterson book some of us read in and for the debt structure we read with Roger also.
What I am pointing to they just increased the scope and scale of the structures to kick.
If it is twice as big with the punt the movement is half as far to buffer the structure.
As we also know last time they are not picking raisons out of a crap pile.
The last warning shot in idiots AI should of been enough for sane actors to drill down on
risk actors.
No I am not short H for now.
I will need two more refences for a trend and I think we understand for SPC effects.
Are we seeing some slack no not really.
I would be cautious into the hard pivot into 2024 with the actual demographics facts with
GD walking points as we are in real time.
I would ask Vin what SIV He is using real time for Coffee and real life low cost transactions
since walking Point is what He does also.
What I see is they are managing a direct cash flow as trends form.
https://www.cefconnect.com/
Cautious yes. Short no. Not right now into my dumb ass 44xx view.
Raising cash and benchmarking z scores also.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futur ... eme-stocks

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/emai ... es-thanked
I know some people who would like to bury these gain of function monsters alive.

Nukes destroy the infrastructure so the new wars will involve bio warfare.
Then the conquerors will just move in when the dust settles.
Everything will be ready to start up again.
That is gain of function research.
The warnings God already sent are clear also.
הר המשׁחית may be rendered, mountain of corruption.
We are not sure on Jeremiah 51:25 today but it shapes, He alone will punish also.

[John]

** 02-Jun-2021 World View: Pakistan debt

> I wonder how much if any of the PAK debt is being mopped up with
> that SIV.

I meant to comment on this yesterday. It's not unusual for China to
be refusing to bail out Pakistan, because they're playing a game where
they're trying to force the IMF to bail out Pakistan, which means that
the American taxpayer would be repaying Pakistan's debt to China.

Nonetheless, Pakistan is very important to China. China and Pakistan
are each others "all-weather friend," whose friendship is "higher than
mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than
honey, and dearer than eyesight."

Even more important is the development of the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), which connects China's Xinjiang province to Gwadar
Port on the Indian Ocean, and is thus a crucial part of China's
delusional plan to become a world leader.

The problem for China is that Pakistan hasn't always behaved. Despite
the "debt trap diplomacy," the parliament has sometimes balked at
approving some of China's demands, since some of the CPEC projects are
for China's benefit, not for Pakistan's benefit.

Then there's the problem that CPEC runs to the Gwardar Port, which is
in Balochistan province. As usual, China is sending in Chinese
workers to do the work, which creates a Chinese enclave that will
never leave, and which allows China to double-charge for the BRI debt.
(China lends the money to Pakistan, Pak pays the money to the Chinese
workers who send it back to their families in China, but then Pak
still has to repay the debt.)

So the ethnic Balochs are being shut out in their own province. The
Balochistan Liberation Army is none too happy, and they've been
conducting terror attacks on Chinese workers and Chinese assets.

And now another group, the Pakistan Taliban (TTP), is declaring jihad
on China in Balochistan. In April, there was a major terrorist attack
on a hotel in Quetta just as Chinese VIPs were visiting. The Chinese
are claiming that the terrorist attack was backed by India.

So there's a lot going on between China and Pakistan, but I consider
it very unlikely that China will let Pakistan become bankrupt, or
otherwise devolve into total chaos, because that would be a big blow
to CPEC and to China's own glorious delusional plans for world
domination

[aeden]

I was in contact with a sincere PAK who was under the impression they will allow a default.
You covered this with utmost clarity on the Sri Lanka files on the political debauchery them.

Also we are ready to assist windows and orphans. The local women are stocked up and resolved to meet this seen evil.
Harris is not. Borders are to be defended on many other levels they cannot defend or wish to. They are a problem.
The liberals and left are decrepit and avoided by the People.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/migrant-boy- ... rder-video

[John]

** 02-Jun-2021 World View: Pakistan default

> I was in contact with a sincere PAK who was under the impression
> they will allow a default. You covered this with utmost clarity
> on the Sri Lanka files on the political debauchery them.

> Also we are ready to assist windows and orphans. The local women
> are stocked up and resolved to meet this seen evil. Harris is
> not. Borders are to be defended on many other levels they cannot
> defend or wish to. They are a problem. The liberals and left are
> decrepit and avoided by the People.
> https://www.foxnews.com/us/migrant-boy- ... rder-video

Well, if that's true and China allows Pakistan to default,
then the angle will have to be that major Pakistan assets,
including energy, road and port projects associated with CPEC,
will pass to China's ownership and control -- as happened with
Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, and may happen with
Mombasa port in Kenya.

[aeden]

Job 37:3 He sends it forth under the whole heaven,
His lightning to the ends of the earth.