Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Navigator wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:26 pm Europe is basically defenseless without the US.

When Putin grabs most of the Ukraine next month, and nobody does anything of substance about it, Putin will get ready for "Phase Two". He will grab the Baltic States while the US is busy with China invading Taiwan.

The rest of Europe will do little/nothing to defend the Baltic States, as they are militarily indefensible. Then Putin will go at Poland (the only viable military opponent for Russia left in Europe) from multiple directions (from Baltics, Belorus and probably Hungary). In doing so they will figure out the rest of Europe is a hollow shell and will run rampant, plundering at will.

The EU will shortly live through the greatest refugee problem (of its own citizens) ever seen. 400 million will attempt to flee to Spain.

For historical context, read about the Barbarians entering Greece during the end stages of the Roman Empire.

Guest wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:26 pm We are not sending our men to fight for this corrupt country at any price.
Russia can walk in there any day it chooses.
We should be trading with this great country,, get rid of the existing sanctions and buy their gas and oil. We used to do a lot of business with them.
Think about this ? What will happen to the 500 troops we have sent there if Russia makes a move.

Guest wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:26 pm We are not sending our men to fight for this corrupt country at any price.
Russia can walk in there any day it chooses.
We should be trading with this great country,, get rid of the existing sanctions and buy their gas and oil. We used to do a lot of business with them.
Think about this ? What will happen to the 500 troops we have sent there if Russia makes a move.

Russia 'plotting Christmas Eve invasion' with 100,000 troops amassing on Ukraine border
Both the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign Office have refused to comment on what action the UK might take in the event of an invasion by Russia - which is looking likely

Navigator wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:27 am Saw that too. Looking more likely every day.

As others have mentioned, Ukraine is not NATO. But they were promised "security" in return for giving up their nuclear weapons. (Which in hindsight is the stupidest thing they have done).

This promise of "security" will be broken and Europe will "hum and haw" but essentially do nothing. I think the Russians will leave a rump Ukraine, consisting of the formerly Polish (and before that Austro-Hungarian) area centered around Lviv (formerly Lvov, formerly Lemberg). In other areas they will probably do something like hold "plebiscites" and then tell the rest of the world that people voted to re-join Russia.

The lack of US/EU action will then embolden them to demand the Baltic States be kicked out of NATO. Then move when they either are or arent (they have an excuse or opportunity either way).

NATO itself right now is a mess. Turkey is effectively not a member. Hungary is more aligned with Russian than NATO. Germany will probably go "nuetral" rather than fight. So will many of the smaller countries (Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal). Spain and Italy would send, and this is a big if, token forces. The Balkan members (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania) will probably have to deal with Turkey, who could lash out in an effort to keep Erdogan in power.

Europe is in a much bigger mess than people realize.

Jubal Early wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:12 am I remember John writing that WW3 would begin with a nuclear attack on the United States by the Chinese. That would invite retaliation from us. Is that not part of your theory, Navigator?

Russia is also weak conventionally. I don't think NATO is that hollowed out. I don't see France surrendering to Russia. Poland will fight. Ukraine is a huge country. It won't be easy to occupy. Russia also has very poor medical services. I find it hard to believe that Turkey would allow NATO to be destroyed and do nothing. The Turks would be the next on the chopping block.