** 04-Feb-2020 World View: Intensive care for Wuhan coronavirus
Tom Mazanec wrote:
> John, the current death rate may be 2.1%, but if this does
> not stop spreading soon it will go a lot higher. Something like 10
> or even 20 percent of the patients only survive with hospital
> intensive care. There are not enough intensive care units to
> handle millions of patients.
richard5za wrote:
> I did some more research. Dead is only 2% of total infections, but
> dead plus serious condition in nearly 16%. So my point on having
> enough antibiotics on hand might be correct; depends upon speed of
> infection, I suppose. I imagine countries like USA would always
> have enough medicine, but it could be a disaster in other parts of
> the planet
This is an important point that I've been ignoring.
The death rate for people who contract the virus is being estimated at
around 2.1%. However, another 15-20% become very ill and survive only
because because they've received intensive medical care in a hospital.
That's why China has been building "pop-up hospitals" in Hubei
province, each one capable of housing 1,000 patients.
These "pop-up hospitals" are a very interesting development. The
Chinese developed this technology as part of "lessons learned" from
the SARS crisis in China in 2002-2003. The Chinese are staffing them
with military medics. I believe that three of these hospitals have
been built, as each one can be built within a week. In the months to
come, there should be some reports on how well they worked.
However, the obvious point is that no such "pop-up hospitals" are
possible outside of China. And so if there are outbreaks in other
countries, there will not be enough hospital space, the the death rate
may go much higher than 2.1%.
