Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I still say the start of the breakdown at earliest is end of Feb/March 2022, and likely the summer entering the watershed moment politically for the USA, which is the realization that the elections have been rigged for years.

Cool Breeze wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:33 pm I still say the start of the breakdown at earliest is end of Feb/March 2022, and likely the summer entering the watershed moment politically for the USA, which is the realization that the elections have been rigged for years.

I don't think the US can hold things together that long with containers from China to the US costing $20,000 when they used to be like $2,000.
This either causes lots of inflation or halts lots of business. Much of the traffic is at "contract rates" where prices have been set for a period of time.
So even though the "spot rates" have shot up we are not really getting the full pain yet. But the longer this goes on the higher the "contract rates" are
going to get too.

https://blog.intekfreight-logistics.com ... sive-guide
https://fbx.freightos.com/freight-index/FBX03

This next one has $16,381 for china to NY, which is less than freightos above, but it also shows going up several percent a week (7% this week).
https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-a ... -by-drewry

It seems part of the trouble is fuel is like 3 times the price it was, but other ship costs are up too. The biggest problem is that ships can have to several days to unload at a port like LA, which increases costs.

https://theloadstar.com/theres-a-meltdo ... -piles-up/

But it does not seem like the high cost of shipping is going to end anytime soon, so I think the US is in trouble.

vincecate wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:28 pm

FullMoon wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:52 pm If we sell our real estate in order to buy in later, but bank bail-ins take our deposits... How to get around this risk? And sorry, not going all in with crypto.

Convert to gold coins? Do you trust your stock broker account more than your bank account?

How about a good safe and cash. Quarter meter square. Gold would be much smaller but less convertible. Stocks start crashing means real estate must be sold, or am I missing something? Nothing digital somewhere else. System is built on trust but we know it's going away in short order, no?

FullMoon wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:25 pm How about a good safe and cash. Quarter meter square. Gold would be much smaller but less convertible. Stocks start crashing means real estate must be sold, or am I missing something? Nothing digital somewhere else. System is built on trust but we know it's going away in short order, no?

I think during the crash it would be better to be in cash than bonds/stocks/real-estate. But I do think we will eventually get hyperinflation (like obvious to most in the next couple years), so I don't think it would be good to stay in cash.

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/09 ... -many.html

George Calhoun has looked at how a war with China could start. He notes that the US embargoed oil from Japan, to try to get them to stop taking over China, and that lead to WW2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_le ... arl_Harbor

It seems between 1/3 and 2/3rds of worlds chips come from Tiawan. If the USA/Japan/Tiawan were to try to embargo semiconductors from China, for some reason, then China might feel forced to try to take over Tiawan.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalh ... 6e79ea5d26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCEaubSZfMc

vincecate wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:59 pm But it does not seem like the high cost of shipping is going to end anytime soon, so I think the US is in trouble.

The question isn't if we are in trouble, the question is by when and what is the quality of that trouble. As usual around here.

vincecate wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:40 pm George Calhoun has looked at how a war with China could start. He notes that the US embargoed oil from Japan, to try to get them to stop taking over China, and that lead to WW2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_le ... arl_Harbor

It seems between 1/3 and 2/3rds of worlds chips come from Tiawan. If the USA/Japan/Tiawan were to try to embargo semiconductors from China, for some reason, then China might feel forced to try to take over Tiawan.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalh ... 6e79ea5d26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCEaubSZfMc

I can see that. I think Taiwan has threatened to blow up the semiconductor plants if they do, is that not true?

Cool Breeze wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:52 pm I can see that. I think Taiwan has threatened to blow up the semiconductor plants if they do, is that not true?

I could well imagine. Also, trying to force people who worked there to keep working could easily result in sabotage that stopped production. You have many (maybe 80) steps to making a chip and if one of them got some dirt thrown on it, the whole thing could stop. This article does not think China taking over Tiawan to get FABs makes much sense:

https://www.jonstokes.com/p/why-a-chine ... -of-taiwan

This says TSMC is 55% of world chip production and a higher percentage of the advanced chips like NVIDIA GPUs. If China simply threatened to send missiles to those FABs they might get their way.

In any case, the world has a chip shortage now, but if China/Tiawan went at it the world chip shortage would be far far worse. The economy would be a mess.

Yield lemmings are moving into the chines HYB segment.
As we dated and noted before the swaps.
The world is starving for dollars.
The ship will be fine for those who prepared safe harbor.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/underfunde ... 1613730603

As we dated the POB cult will implode before them or us.

Fri Sep 04, 2009 6:52 pm
I mentioned a few pages back looking in late October for a few concentrated Equity looks
but felt compelled to look in February. We are seeing some limited movement as mentioned in metals which will supply
at a measured pace and just as we are planning that supply valve will be turned off in a instant also.
The market will be extremely dangerous for Junior Market Traders and money never sleeps so be advised to the extreme risk reality.
This in context to what we have been conveying which is consumers base are being devastated and it will tighten its grip to cash flows
and expected bank implosions warned about.

Today:
If you have any pause just get out as the crayon chewers in the swamp linger in utter darkness and depravity.
Lumber futures will control the rest of our decisions into November. Our first blush was end of Sept or October as discussed.
We have another steer at the end of the month heading to the freezer. We planned years ahead.
If you do not have the nut sack get out now and go piss on the porch.
The seven P season was at hand.
Woketards cannot be educated.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... apartments
For those heading into the fifth bear market congorats.
Truman was right about these son of a bitches. They are not democrats.