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vincecate wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:09 pm Higgie, do you think Evergrande will pop the Chinese real estate bubble?

From reading John's writeup, the losses to the banking sector aren't as high as they were in the US when the Bear Stearns subprime funds lost all their value in 2007. But I don't know if the losses would need to be that high. It would be a reasonable assumption though.

With regard to the S&P, I'm not too concerned about not seeing more weakness last week, though I would like to see the Thursday high hold and for 4340 to come out. That would begin a pattern of more days down from the high, which often starts with at least 7 trading days down and no more than 6 trading days up on the rebound from the first low. Also, 4340 is a key level in my work and a Gann guy confirmed that it is in his too. So the bounce from that area last week was not surprising.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:49 pm

vincecate wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:09 pm Higgie, do you think Evergrande will pop the Chinese real estate bubble?

From reading John's writeup, the losses to the banking sector aren't as high as they were in the US when the Bear Stearns subprime funds lost all their value in 2007. But I don't know if the losses would need to be that high. It would be a reasonable assumption though.

When a pin is popping a bubble it does not need to be really big.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:49 pm With regard to the S&P, I'm not too concerned about not seeing more weakness last week, though I would like to see the Thursday high hold and for 4340 to come out. That would begin a pattern of more days down from the high, which often starts with at least 7 trading days down and no more than 6 trading days up on the rebound from the first low. Also, 4340 is a key level in my work and a Gann guy confirmed that it is in his too. So the bounce from that area last week was not surprising.

Exciting to watch.

vincecate wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:05 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:49 pm

vincecate wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:09 pm Higgie, do you think Evergrande will pop the Chinese real estate bubble?

From reading John's writeup, the losses to the banking sector aren't as high as they were in the US when the Bear Stearns subprime funds lost all their value in 2007. But I don't know if the losses would need to be that high. It would be a reasonable assumption though.

When a pin is popping a bubble it does not need to be really big.

True. What was going through my mind when I wrote that is the banks are supposedly in better shape than they were in 2007. But we don't really know that and we don't really know that the banks are the weakest link now.

In China people are paying 40 times annual income for an apartment that is on land with a 70 year lease from the government.
They don't really own it, not like people in the West. In the West, outside of bubble times, it is like 5 times annual income for a house.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-pri ... ome-ratio/

In China you have 4 grandparents contributing so a grandson can get a house, so he has a chance to get a wife.
Chinese were killing unborn female babies during "one child policy" because they thought sons would take care of them in their old age.
Ooops, that backfired.

I think real estate is a huge bubble in China and probably Evergrande is enough to pop it.

Chinese real estate certainly is a bubble and mostly unaffordable. Many people reside in apartments given them by the government for their work in government sponsored industry, and these massive changes have occurred within their lifetime. I know people on apartments near city center (currently) which was countryside just 30 years ago. Making about 1k USD/month living in an apartment valued at 1million. Yes, a home is mandatory for bedding a wife and parents obligated to help if they want grandchildren. And yes, countless girl fetuses aborted for the next chance at a boy. I'm told India is in a similar predicament...
Some speculate evergrande is a controlled demolition so the Party can regain control of the real estate market.

China is trying to centrally plan electric prices (hold at old level) when coal is up 65%. This kind of thing never works out well. So now they are running out of electricity and so shutting down aluminum manufacturing (uses lots of electricity) etc.

I think this is why they chased all the Bitcoin Miners out (it uses lots of electricity). But it was making lots of money and now that money is not made in China.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-po ... 00280.html

China had many cities that were special economic zones. These were capitalism. It was doing so well the whole country sort of went with it. But now CCP is reasserting their control over the economy. It will not go well.

"Yunnan Aluminum Co., a $9 billion producer of the metal used in everything from cars to soda cans, has curtailed output due to pressure from Beijing. The shock is also being felt in China’s giant food sector. Soybean crushers, which process the crop into edible oils and animal feed, were ordered to shut this week in the city of Tianjin.

According to Nikkei, suppliers to Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. halted production at some of their sites in China on Sunday. Foxconn’s facilities in Longhua, Guanlan, Taiyuan and Zhengzhou -- the world’s largest iPhone manufacturing complex -- remained unaffected by the power-supply restrictions, the report said.

A number of smaller companies are also starting to inform the stock exchange they’ve been ordered to curb or halt activity. While they may be overlooked by major foreign investors that don’t cover these firms, the end result could be a shortage of everything from textiles to electronics components that could snarl supply chains and eat into the profits of a host of multinational companies."

If China does not have power for Apple and Tesla then companies will soon be leaving China faster than they have been so far. Central planning is not a win.

For the downside it would take a pretty decent punch to break 4400. If 4400 is breached we think volatility expands drastically due to negative gamma. We anticipate 4400 being the critical support line into Thursdays expiration. t

As we gauged input costs will decide. That would be the consumer on rejected cost basis.

Hunter seeker is in control. This means quants do the electronic sheep pens dream.

You are correct on assumption V as we noted also from Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:13 pm
search.php?keywords=usda&t=2&sf=msgonly

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=62150&hilit=usda#p62150
btc was rejected to pave the way for what we already know.
As we noted taproot for absconders to the IRS.
I got another IRS note. They said oops and said file a lawsuit on that topic. Yea right thanks bro.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=LtqE1x1n

thread: 44xx, oct8, taproot

As noted correctly in a world of 4 GW or Hybrid Wars, the price for complacency and inept strategy only grows steeper. Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:39 pm

We seen that real time. Woke tards are predictable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diTmxxmSf1Q

if/then to Vietnam or Thailand as the middleman facilities of quality replaces the input cost basis.
As we warned from the mid eighties they left because they diseased a whole generation as jihad was the only solution.
They canaled any thing that served to protect the poor and abused who questioned the debauchery.
Yes we seen it real time also.
We also seen real time no that abused His little ones survived either on the blow back from innocent lost souls.
A year to the day he wiped them out. It was called weather. We said His time clearly.
Digital sheep do not dream.

Our only looks this week have been Norway and the Swiss funds. Yea the note infected tech. Algo understand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhH8ZvGtl_Y

https://www.jmbullion.com/2021-1-oz-ame ... ew-design/

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/damn ... gone-viral

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z4uITELiqw

https://www.docdroid.net/kZZXcGS/covid- ... letter-pdf

time to hose the filth of the stage

2009 1:37 AM
China with Hugh Hendry, the money manager who is bearish on China.
He shows us building after building after building all of them massive
and all of them empty.
And you see yet dozens of others still in construction in the background.
Who is going to pay for all of this stuff?
You are.
We are out and have been.
Slow at first...
if/then

2010
Hendry Sees 1920's Japan-Like Crash In China Courtesy of Tyler Durden Hugh Hendry,
whose previous appearances have been well-logged by Zero Hedge

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.about.htm

Its not who is in your head but what and why.

Yes we gauged risk - ours not yours - and as we proved it was off but we accepted the current target to regroup on actual metrics.
The swamp was, and is the current issue.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=TQMNUEqT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpQArtCeXTk