Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:29 am The biggest mistake that these "experts" make is not
to understand that just because supply prices increase once, they
won't cause inflation until those supply prices continue to increase
at the same rate.

If it goes up and then stops going up, all is well, maybe. But maybe not. Container shipping costs from China to USA have gone up around a factor of 5. If they were to just stay at this level you could say "it was a one time change and not really inflation". But maybe it will result in all sorts of other costs going up, which may look a lot more like "real inflation" and might even eventually go back and cause fuel/wages/ship costs to go up and so cause shipping prices to go up more. Economies are very complex, in a Chaos theory kind of way. The money printing has "long and variable delays" before impacting prices. Anyway, this is the real question, is inflation "transitory" or has the "genie gotten out of the bottle" and we will have hell to get it back in. So far the market still has lowest bond interest rates in recorded human history, which makes it seem like the market is not worried about inflation, yet. I think the coming CPI reports will push people away from the transitory belief. Time will tell.

You can do the same thing with oil. Oil is much more expensive now. Maybe this is a one time change, but maybe energy costs increase costs all around the economy, so prices in general will have to go up. Many people explain the inflation in the 1970s just using "oil shocks".

Or with coal in China. With coal much more expensive, they have to increase electricity prices, or ration it. Either way the cost of produced goods is going to go up. Can spread from there.

Shortages, supply chain problems, and gas lines are things that happen when there is real inflation.
Each shortage really means supply and demand do not meet, which means price should be higher.
But at the start people are not used to adjusting prices so much. They will get used to increasing their
prices, then it becomes harder to stop inflation.

As we chip less to survive the gain of function daemons its not our garden.
The current demsheviks scropians and locusts who league with evil are
reserved for the judgement in His season.
Of course Book and Letter are scorned.
Careless has a severe cost.
As we have witnessed they are corrupted beyond regard.
Pity them in the times already seen.

thread: d-10

We have calculated the implied margin call.
You are not prepared. T

Once again we visit 2008.
However, because one "leg" of the strategy involves selling (shorting) a call option,
you need to fully understand the potential risks of selling a call option before you hedging with a costless collar,
something many market participants have learned the hard way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INq4bVNTuqo
An October Stock Market Crash Is About To Burst With 80% Catastrophic Drop

The Epic Economist's voice is a national treasure. He should insure his larynx

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8CGtP_HV40
Big Payroll Miss Means the Fed is About to Make a Huge Mistake
Steven van Metre doesn't have as good a voice as EE but his crown sure looks good!

MACRO ANALYTICS - 09 30 21 - SEPTEMBER - Four Tsunami Waves About To Hit At Once
2,285 viewsOct 5, 2021
GordonTLong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OKKlcAvjCM

Nancy Pelosi Portfolio Tracker
@NancyTracker

Official US inflation rate: +1.5%

Oil +80%
Corn +69%
Steel +145%
Wheat +25%
Coffee +34%
Cotton +35%
Copper +50%
Lumber +126%
Soybeans +71%
Home Values +8%
Stock Market +23%
Money Supply +24%

John wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:29 am ** 08-Oct-2021 World View: Inflation

Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:26 am > Why do you think there is such an ignorance about what "deflation"
> is (disinflation at most, meaning inflation, lol)? I understand
> that the world was in a majorly deflationary trend (notice, I'm
> careful with language, TREND) for the last 80 years, but now we
> have the perfect storm of less production, more expensive
> production, and massive monetary base inflows. The ONLY thing that
> will slow inflation down will be drastic demand reduction. I don't
> see that, especially when the printing press WILL keep up, and
> everyone will be clamoring for more real goods and food/petrol,
> which they will realize will all only be higher in price later on
> ...

The period 1960s-90s (generational Awakening and Unraveling eras) was
an inflationary era. The period since 2003 (generational Crisis era)
was and is a deflationary era. As I've written several times in the
past, this means that is that inflation will remain low. Furthermore,
the high public debt leads to the second outcome of a deflationary
era, namely that it ends with a sharp deflationary crash.

There's a great deal of hysteria today over inflation (or
"stagflation") by "experts" who couldn't do fourth grade percentage
math problems. The biggest mistake that these "experts" make is not
to understand that just because supply prices increase once, they
won't cause inflation until those supply prices continue to increase
at the same rate. If the price of oil goes from $60 to $70, then
there is inflation that quarter. But if the price of oil stays at
$70, even though that might be considered a high "inflationary" value,
then it's still 0% inflation in the next quarter. This fourth grade
"math problem" involving percentages is completely incomprehensible to
most so-called "experts," including economists and politicians.

There have been "massive monetary base inflows" since 2008, but they
haven't caused inflation so far. This is another area where the
so-called "experts" are wrong.

I have posted each decades USD purchasing power for 70 years. You talk about 4th grade math, but then use the word deflation, something we actually have never seen. For the twentieth time, do you know what the difference is between disinflation and deflation? If so, why do you keep using the term incorrectly?

The inflation from the massive monetary base increase has gone to the stock market and also, the real estate markets.

Why is it that I can actually explain this, in fact quite easily (just did), yet you and some others refuse to agree? When you don't answer that, please tell me how there ever has been deflation, when purchasing power (and yours) has eroded throughout (both of) our ENTIRE lives.

** 09-Oct-2021 World View: Deflationary era and Deflationary crash

Cool Breeze wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:25 am > I have posted each decades USD purchasing power for 70 years. You
> talk about 4th grade math, but then use the word deflation,
> something we actually have never seen. For the twentieth time, do
> you know what the difference is between disinflation and
> deflation? If so, why do you keep using the term incorrectly?

> The inflation from the massive monetary base increase has gone to
> the stock market and also, the real estate markets.

> Why is it that I can actually explain this, in fact quite easily
> (just did), yet you and some others refuse to agree? When you
> don't answer that, please tell me how there ever has been
> deflation, when purchasing power (and yours) has eroded throughout
> (both of) our ENTIRE lives.

You prattle on and on, saying the same thing over and over. Not only
can you not do fourth grade math, you can't even do fourth grade reading.

I did not use the word "deflation." I don't know why this is so hard
to understand. I guess it's pretty subtle. Apparently you're
hallucinating it, since you keep referring to it even though it
doesn't exist. I've used the words "deflationary era" and
"deflationary crash," but not the word deflation.

I have defined a "deflationary era" as an era for you several times
(starting in 2003). It's characterized by high public debt, which
means that (unlike the 1970s) few people are willling to go further
into debt. I did not say that deflation occurs during the
deflationary era until the end of the era. (However, I note that we
did have deflation briefly in 2009.)

During the "deflationary era," inflation will remain low (I didn't say
deflation) and, furthermore, the high public debt leads to the second
outcome of a deflationary era, namely that it ends with a sharp
deflationary crash. Actual deflation (I'm using that word only now)
occurs at the end of the era.

Try reading that a few times before you post the same nonsense that
you've already posted dozens of times, and stop hallucinating stuff
that I haven't written.

I'll repeat some information that I've posted before that you may find
helpful, provided that you actually read it:

We're still roughly on the same path as 2008, and not even as high as
2008:

2008:
4.30, 4.03, 3.94, 3.92, 4.18, 4.99,
5.60, 5.38, 4.93, 3.67, 1.06, 0.11

2021:
1.40, 1.68, 2.62, 4.16, 4.99, 5.39,
5.37, 5.25

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm

Late in 2008, the cpi began falling, and actually turned negative in
2009.

2009:
0.02, 0.23, -0.37, -0.73, -1.27, -1.42,
-2.10, -1.48, -1.29, -0.18, 1.84, 2.72

So here's the irony. You claim that "deflation [is] something we
actually have never seen." Apparently you're hallucinating that claim
as well. As you can see from the above figures, we have "seen"
deflation in 2009. And if you visit the page linked above, you'll see
that we have also "seen" deflation briefly in 2018.

But that's not the point. The point is that inflation is low during
the "deflationary era," although there may be some deflation, but the
real deflation will occur with the deflationary crash at the end.

I know that it's complicated and subtle, as are all the concepts in
Generational Dynamics, but if you read what I've written over and over
about ten times, you should be able to understand it.

More and more debt has not worked for anyone but the top since the system is designed for the wasting.
Investors who don't understand how money flowing into passive index funds has had on the market's performance
will have no idea what will happen when the trend stalls as it currently is. The education they received
will fill more then one valley of dry bones. The current ratio has not diminshed on actual work flows
given design implimentations. Truly they have no clue. Given the actual debt conditions to net working
capital utilizations with the limitations china and america has it will be severe and lie cheat steal will
realize the insolvency's will quickly overrun them. The last dollar will not save either side as they covet
just as before when the corn people burned it to stay warn and the coal people starved just as before.
The only ones falling behind are the body farm pols who push more into collapse since the cost per watt cannot
fill the gap of the actual collapse in play into 2024.
The greenmasks and watermellons are not even considered crayon chewers as they eating paste in preschool.
They will increase the attacks looking for people to blame as they smoother another market. Ours.

1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants
7. see step one

Greentards and greenmasks also freeze.
We donated cash to bury them when they would not listen also.
Doubt you cared then also.

Uniparty d-10 fiat slaves have another year only and they will be kicked to the curb as our collapse escalates.
Even the democrats locally see it. The plan to relocate them with services utterly collapsed. The 1000 yard stare
was impossible to miss as the wander aimlessly.