Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I bought more S&P puts again today. Sometime this just has to work...

Australia's central bank seems to be losing control of bond yields:

https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-market ... 028-p593un

https://www.reuters.com/business/austra ... 021-10-29/

"Bank of America’s long-term stock valuation model, using a price-to-normalized earnings ratio, indicates a negative 10-year return for the S&P 500 for the first time since 1999."
[...]

“We see more downside risk to the S&P 500 through year-end amid extended valuations, near-euphoric sentiment and peak margin risk, as supply chain, labor inflation, potential tax hikes, the energy crisis, China GDP risks and peak globalization all pose headwinds,” the analysts said.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ban ... ck-returns

Hussman on the market:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

vincecate wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:13 pm Hussman on the market:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

The last quote by Jensen is quite good. The constraints are in, they are real, and we are about to meet them eye to eye, in the next 6-15 months, specifically.

Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:35 pm

vincecate wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:13 pm Hussman on the market:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

The last quote by Jensen is quite good. The constraints are in, they are real, and we are about to meet them eye to eye, in the next 6-15 months, specifically.

Ya. This is the real problem:

Easier and easier money, bigger and bigger deficits – that’s the destiny, until – and this is the big risk. A deflationary slowdown is easy for policy makers. They’ll print more money and spend more money. What’s hard is when they’re constrained, and that constraint is obviously inflation and currency, and that’s where the gig will be up. That’s actually what, in our view, everybody has to start hedging in their portfolios – it’s not the next disinflationary or deflationary downturn. It’s essentially inflation and currency problems becoming constraints on the government and this world where we’ve been living in where policy makers can get whatever they want from the stock market and interest rates to one where they can’t.

You’d better be hedged. Equities are not attractive on an outright basis. They’re only ordered, like cash flows. Almost any cash flow that’s out there is not attractive on an outright basis, only attractive relative to interest rates… So basically getting those cash flows by packaging up – not the bubble stocks or whatever – but getting the cash flows of companies that are likely to move up and down with nominal GDP and hedging the risk that the central bank can’t maintain control of the economy.

– Greg Jensen, Co-CIO, Bridgewater Associates
The End Game with Grant Williams, 7/29/21

"Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, and other business leaders and investors have sounded the alarm on inflation in recent months.

Michael Burry, Jack Dorsey, and Paul Tudor Jones have also warned of accelerating price increases. They have overwhelmingly blamed the federal government, after officials pumped trillions of dollars into the US economy during the pandemic, failed to raised interest rates, and have delayed withdrawing support."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... gs-2021-10

Others in there too.

Simply put, investors should be fully prepared for a very long period in which stocks essentially go nowhere in an interesting way.

As we noted it will burn out sideways. Call it whatever technical analasis you wish.

water wheat weather

Democrats don’t stand for anything but rather are simply another victims support group...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-to ... month-2021

thread: 49xx
Rule 5. Sidetrack opponents with name calling and ridicule. This is also known as the primary attack the messenger ploy, though other methods qualify as variants of that approach. Associate opponents with unpopular titles such as “kooks”, “right-wing”, “liberal”, “left-wing”, “terrorists”, “conspiracy buffs”, “radicals”, “militia”, “racists”, “religious fanatics”, “sexual deviates”, Rus and so forth. This makes others shrink from support out of fear of gaining the same label, and you avoid dealing with issues.

1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants <-------------
It's not that government has lacked information needed to fix the problem. It is institutionally incapable of bringing about the desired result, since the principles of profit and loss, private property and contract, enterprise and entrepreneurship, do not exist in government. Any Government operates with an eye to its own short-term survival, and those of its connected interest groups, and nothing else. lvm

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Fri Jul 31, 2009 10:09 pm
The trap door is ordinary investor’s being spread to thin from cpi facts over time that will play out as we will also see soon IMO again as John and many know also the effects. I tend to agree with the exhaustion process many will call sentiment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_87AoQaKNw

“I don’t think that these investments will drive up inflation at all..." gellen

All the BISH citys are captivated Brennen cults for some time looking back.
To be clear the gellen yellen sideway if we are lucky timestamp.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhH8ZvGtl_Y