Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLvNGiOv37w
Chamath: The ENTIRE Tech Bubble Is about To COLLAPSE...
44,274 viewsNov 7, 2021

Bernoulli’s Prisoner’s Dilemma. 1738
Goals Based Perspective.
Behavioral Finance Economics

No different today.

PPI 8.6%

"The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in October, seasonally adjusted,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in
September and 0.7 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand
index rose 8.6 percent for the 12 months ended in October."
[...]
"The index for final demand goods moved up 1.2 percent in October following
a 1.3-percent increase in September."

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

This 1.2% in a month for goods is an issue. People order goods ahead of time when prices are going up fast, not services. Makes for shortages and more inflation in goods. Record shipping volumes in goods. See "crack up boom".

vincecate wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:27 am PPI 8.6%

"The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in October, seasonally adjusted,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in
September and 0.7 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand
index rose 8.6 percent for the 12 months ended in October."
[...]
"The index for final demand goods moved up 1.2 percent in October following
a 1.3-percent increase in September."

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

This 1.2% in a month for goods is an issue. People order goods ahead of time when prices are going up fast, not services. Makes for shortages and more inflation in goods. Record shipping volumes in goods. See "crack up boom".

Deflation and disinflation strike again.

Tesla was down about 5% yesterday and almost 9% today so far. Wonder if that tweet and Elon selling can be the trigger...

This estimates 5.76% for tomorrows Oct CPI number and 6.10% for November (was 6.09% before today).

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

When Bubble Meets Trouble
Hussman

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211108/

Tesla is down about 12% today (after 5% yesterday). Rivian was expected to IPO this week. I wonder if the IPO could have trouble because of Tesla.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=o4q8NcpY

See spot run and 49xx rather a hard ceiling. Book 4 still closed as we watch oil, notes, and dxy.
Dancing bears and barking at caravans is not a plan either.
As H and we noted before unpossible can and did happen since explain to us what the economy
and the market have in common.
We will note a item of a white horse and a man with a bow only.
By next September it should be apparent to a few more.

Bernoulli’s Prisoner’s Dilemma. 1738
thread: 49xx

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diTmxxmSf1Q

** 09-Nov-2021 World View: PPI vs CPI

As we wait breathlessly for Wednesday morning's release of the latest
CPI, and Vince wonders breathlessly whether it will match the recent
sharp increases in the PPI, I just became aware the fact that Chinese
economists are noticing that the PPI and CPI seem to be rapidly
diverging.

Here's an article on the subject, which seems to blame the larger gap
on the price of pork:

-- Larger gap between CPI, PPI expected in Sept
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202110/1 ... 6e5ff.html
(China Daily, Beijing, 12-Oct-2021)

So I wanted to do a little more research on this subject, and it seems
that the CPI and PPI were pretty well correlated last century, but
have been diverging in this century in many countries.

Here's a length paper on the subject:

-- The Wedge Of The Century: Understanding A Divergence Between Cpi
And Ppi Inflation Measures
https://www.nber.org/system/files/worki ... w24319.pdf
(NBER, 5/2019)

This paper is 63 pages of idiotic econobabble. This guy has
absolutely no idea why the gap is increasing. He blames it on digital
technology and lengthening supply chains, but he makes no more sense
than if he blamed it on the price of pork.

These economists come up with laborious Rube Goldberg explanations for
things, when it's obvious that what changed in this century is that
the world entered a generational Crisis era.

I've been writing about inflation for almost 20 years, and this
divergence between CPI and PPI is very interesting. In the days to
come, I'll try to write an analysis of why the CPI and PPI are
correlated in Awakening and Unraveling eras, but become uncorrelated
during a Crisis era.

In the meantime, we'll see what happens tomorrow morning.