Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Thanks again. I still think that the United States' military-technology prowess will continue to be, overall, markedly better than China's for the foreseeable future. However, China's attempts at the aggressive beefing up of its military and allied technologies are certainly worrisome. —Best regards, Marc

So do I, but the longer they build up, the more difficult this war is ultimately going to be. Not only that, but I don't think we'll be fighting just China. We'll be involved in Europe as well; I'm expecting a two-front war, similar to last time.

Course, this time, France might take the place that Germany had last time. The old fault lines are opening up in this financial crisis, and based on their immigrant population, a repeat of the French Commune, while not definite, is a possibility. They have their share of crazy nomads, remember

If the United States is involved in a World War III which involves a European Theater, I would think that its genesis is apt to emanate from China and its allies. It's possible that France could ally at least somewhat with the "Axis" powers, but I'm willing to bet that you get detention camps (in the same spirit that were used on the Japanese in America during World War II) instead of a "Trojan Column" in France that is able to really help out the Axis powers. But, you never know.... —Best regards, Marc

Depends on the circumstances. About one in three of their under 30 population is a Muslim immigrant, and there's a developing fault line there. There were far fewer Japanese in the United States in 1941. If the wrong kind of person takes power, and decides to use them as scapegoats for their problems, I could see it occurring.

Our primary front will likely be China, but Europe could draw some of our strength away. Course, none of this is going to happen until the financial collapse.

Trevor wrote:Depends on the circumstances. About one in three of their under 30 population is a Muslim immigrant, and there's a developing fault line there. There were far fewer Japanese in the United States in 1941. If the wrong kind of person takes power, and decides to use them as scapegoats for their problems, I could see it occurring.

Our primary front will likely be China, but Europe could draw some of our strength away. Course, none of this is going to happen until the financial collapse.

Agreed, in regards to the scapegoat potential as well as things not really, really brewing until after a financial collapse. —Best regards, Marc

I am expecting the financial collapse to begin this year, although it may not fully run its course until around 2013, 2014. The greek investors who have CDS would rather have them default than take a 70 percent loss on their investment. The rating agencies are also growing ominous, indicating that they may take that final step soon.

Trevor wrote:I am expecting the financial collapse to begin this year, although it may not fully run its course until around 2013, 2014. The greek investors who have CDS would rather have them default than take a 70 percent loss on their investment. The rating agencies are also growing ominous, indicating that they may take that final step soon.

I'm thinking that there will be backdoor bailouts on all this which stop a Greek default from occurring at least yet (due to fears of dominoes tipping which unleash financial Armageddon), but again, I could be wrong about this. —Best regards, Marc

they're certainly trying and the fighting over it is getting extremely bitter, parallel to what's going on here. They've already lasted longer than I expected, but I do believe they are going to default sometime this year. The massive wave of downgrades is not a good sign, the other two agencies may very well do the same, and Greece has already stated: "screw you, we're not cutting anything".

We know it won't be good, but there is a debate on just how bad a greek default would be. not everyone considers it to be a disaster.

The Greek sovereign-bond crisis is indeed fraught with much debate — not only regarding any haircut outcome to investors' pocketbooks, but also regarding how severe to global financial stability a Greek default would be. —Best regards, Marc

If you don't think it'll be a big deal and some don't, they may decide that it's best to let Greece default and try to contain the damage. The biggest problem is Italy; their bonds are only slightly above junk now.