Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Still another calendar for those who think 2022 will be "interesting"...
The FAO food price index release schedule.
Monthly release dates for 2022: 6 January, 3 February, 3 March, 7 April, 5 May, 2 June, 7 July, 4 August, 8 September, 6 October, 3 November, 8 December.
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/ ... sindex/en/

John wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:55 am ** 03-Dec-2021 World View: Gold prices vs inflation

richard5za wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:33 am > The Gold Observer article is making a different point. Its saying
> that the gold price is an accurate predictor of inflation. It is
> saying when gold price is charted against USA inflation for the
> period 1968 through to 2021, when the gold price goes up then, at
> a lag, the inflation increases. To get the full sense of the point
> being made you need to read the article; my summary here is
> inadequate to full sense

richard5za wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:49 am > Here's the link for the chart described above:

> https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_ ... 3x4136.png

Being a totally suspicious person, I question why that graph stops at
the year 1994, and covers only the generational Awakening and
Unraveling eras. Nothing that happened during that period can be
assumed to be the same as would happen today, in a generational Crisis
era.

Actually, stopping a graph at 1994, and not extending it to 2021, is
such an egregious error that I really can't think of any benign reason
for the error.

Maybe gold prices and inflation are still correlated, but maybe not.
If the graph continued to 2021, then we could make that judgment.

John, the point that I previously made was that you do need to read the full article, which does have graphs through to the current date. I simply extracted the main point of the article that the gold price is a predicter of future inflation.

** 05-Dec-2021 World View: Gold price vs inflation

richard5za wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:49 am > John, the point that I previously made was that you do need to
> read the full article, which does have graphs through to the
> current date. I simply extracted the main point of the article
> that the gold price is a predictor of future inflation.

OK, I'll take your word for it. I'm just saying that a graph like
that, stopping at 1994, is an interesting historical artifact, but
tells us nothing about what's going on today.

The Nov CPI report comes out Dec 10th, so 5 days. Last was 6.2%

Cleveland Fed estimates 6.6%
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

Lyn Alden says on twitter that economists are estimating 6.7%
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/sta ... 60867?s=20

One reply to Lyn was:
Edward Garbarino
If Powell did not have information indicating significant worsening inflationary pressure on the horizon,
he would not have jettisoned the "transitory inflation" narrative, IMHO.

People are expecting about 1/2% increase in the yearly inflation rate in one month. This sort
of thing has been going on for months now. People are also expecting that the Fed only needs
to raise interest rates from 0% to 1/2% in 2022 to keep inflation under control. I don't think so.
The "inflationary pressure" is really how far interest rates are below the inflation rate. So as
inflation has gone higher with interest rates staying the same, the inflationary pressure has
increased. The velocity of money goes up the faster you lose by sitting on money.
The Fed is way "behind the curve" and would have to get over 10% to have any chance of stopping
inflation (which would kill the economy of course). So things are broken beyond repair.

The Fed is way "behind the curve" and would have to get over 10% to have any chance of stopping
inflation (which would kill the economy of course).

Not to mention what it would do to the Deficit and Debt.

vincecate wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:27 pm The Nov CPI report comes out Dec 10th, so 5 days. Last was 6.2%

Cleveland Fed estimates 6.6%
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

Lyn Alden says on twitter that economists are estimating 6.7%
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/sta ... 60867?s=20

One reply to Lyn was:
Edward Garbarino
If Powell did not have information indicating significant worsening inflationary pressure on the horizon,
he would not have jettisoned the "transitory inflation" narrative, IMHO.

People are expecting about 1/2% increase in the yearly inflation rate in one month. This sort
of thing has been going on for months now. People are also expecting that the Fed only needs
to raise interest rates from 0% to 1/2% in 2022 to keep inflation under control. I don't think so.
The "inflationary pressure" is really how far interest rates are below the inflation rate. So as
inflation has gone higher with interest rates staying the same, the inflationary pressure has
increased. The velocity of money goes up the faster you lose by sitting on money.
The Fed is way "behind the curve" and would have to get over 10% to have any chance of stopping
inflation (which would kill the economy of course). So things are broken beyond repair.

10th DEcember CPI is followed by the FOMC meeting on 14 and 15 December and the market will be watching will bated breath. I am expecting a great deal of market volatility this month. I think S&P 500 could be battered down as low as 4000 and roar up again to 4650 by month end depending upon decisions made. In a historical context let us never forget that the market is much too high and thus vulnerable to a crash. Maybe 2022 will be the crash.

Higg, haven't heard from you for a long time. How are you?

** 06-Dec-2021 World View: Triggers

Given the enormous global financial bubble, the biggest bubble in
world history, we wonder what will be the trigger causing a financial
crisis. It's impossible to predict what the trigger will be, and when
it will occur. All we can do is identify possible triggers, and then
wait to see if anything happens.

Over the weekend, there were three possible triggers:

• Bitcoin fell significantly, though it partially recovered.
  There seems to be some confusion about what caused this, but the
  explanation appears to be that one or two large institutions were
  forced to sell because of a margin call.
• Chinese tech stocks fell significantly. This is blamed on the
  Chinese Communists' crackdown on tech firms that collect user data
  that might be accessible in the west. This is related to the
  crackdown by the NYSE requiring Chinese firms to follow the same
  accounting and reporting requirements as American firms, and this
  would expose some data. The result is that Didi and dozens of other
  NYSE-listed companies will be forced to delist.
• The Fed indicated that the economy is now so strong and resilient
  that it would immediately taper its bond purchases, and could start
  raising interest rates as early as May.

**** Bitcoin loses $10,000, or 17%, in 24 hours after overnight rout
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/04/cryptoc ... arply.html

**** Didi’s New York exit a further blow to Chinese listings in U.S.
https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/techn ... 861063.ece


**** Faster Fed taper, earlier rate hikes in sight as unemployment falls
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/slow ... 021-12-03/

This is mostly a repeat of the CPI numbers expected for Friday. I have one more from TradingEconomics.com of 6.9%.

https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2021/1 ... igher.html

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=Y9hKsW7V

Puts got recked on pivot.

Broadly speaking, stocks erased all the post-payrolls losses (apart from Nasdaq) with The Dow up most overall, but the selling in the last hour left S&P unchanged from pre-payrolls and only The Dow higher.... tyler

No clue as wti catched a bid. Ya we will sell some @80 if/then.

Profiled story over the weekend about another massive crypto theft.

Crickets from pristinelandia.

Some argue that the education system has failed.
It is and was an active measures in design.

They can suppress gold, they can suppress Bitcoin, even if they want to kill it for the hyperinflation wet dreams in their plan to transition
into another fiat that is even more enslaving than you fools marching into pristine madness.
As warned by Septemebr it will be evident. Focus your rule five of Heritic, Pharisee as you march into the Sea. fify

Twenty-Five Rules of Disinformation ~

Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil
Become incredulous and indignant
Create rumor mongers
Use a straw man
Sidetrack opponents with name calling, ridicule
Hit and Run
Question motives
Invoke authority
Play Dumb
Associate opponent charges with old news
Establish and rely upon fall-back positions
Enigmas have no solution
Alice in Wonderland Logic
Demand complete solutions
Fit the facts to alternate conclusions
Vanish evidence and witnesses
Change the subject
Emotionalize, Antagonize, and Goad
Ignore facts, demand impossible proofs
False evidence
Call a Grand Jury, Special Prosecutor
Manufacture a new truth
Create bigger distractions
Silence critics
Vanish

Eight Traits of The Disinformationalist ~

Avoidance
Selectivity
Coincidental
Teamwork
Anti-conspiratorial
Artificial Emotions
Inconsistent
Newly Discovered: Time Constant

And the FBI Report that shows Left-Wingers Are a Bigger Threat Than White Supremacists.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/abs ... fabricated
One of the study’s authors said that “internal biases” may be to blame.

Told you to fire half the idiots and more to the Federal Marshals.
Thanks the Marshals who saved those poor souls in Bidens Gulag.

Washington DC is the source of the vast majority of the problems and concerns for regular Americans. Washington DC is a malignant cancer on America. It is a den of corruption, criminality and treason. The federal government has aligned itself against the best interests of the American people and our Constitutional Republic. We the People of the United States of America should demand that the federal government is not funded during the next federal budget negotiations. America's founding fathers would have burned every federal building to the ground by now.

Telling the truth in Congress would be like throwing a anvil into a jet engine. It would trash the whole system.

Truman was right about those son of a bitches in PC.

Truman was correct in his assertion.
So then, as in September 1, 1945
To: D A MacArthur/C H Nimitz
From: H S Truman
Political Correctness is a doctrine, recently fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and promoted by a sick mainstream media,
which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by clean end!

We just started with CNN since we knew the swamp was unable to consider the working people who know and why.
We consider most of the Office fathoms this above cabinet level.

δοκιμάζετε τὰ πνεύματα.

thread: amos, pristine, l8ter, taproot

Like it was said back during the Cold War, why would the Russians nuke Detroit?
Detroit is a weight around the neck of a swimmer and still drags down the entire State of Michigan.
We offered Detroit to some Canadians as please take it and they told us that would be an act of War making them
take Detoit culture and all.

https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/keys-of-t ... on=2500276