Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

richard5za wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 3:06 pm Hi Cool, I am getting views from Bitcoin investors on their real underlying views: When Bitcoin falls below $ 20 000 will you buy more? Sell? Hold? And why?

I think Bitcoin will crash when the stock market crashes. I am hoping to make money on S&P Puts during the crash and buy more Bitcoin at that time (also gold and silver).

Long term I think Bitcoin makes a "better money" than anything else. For each government money the government is stealing value by printing more all the time. This is a bad deal for all the users. The US government uses the power of US banks and Swift wire-transfer network to put sanctions on any country it wants to. Nobody has this power in Bitcoin. If the dollar falls I think Bitcoin will be used in many cases to replace it. I think the dollar is doomed. So long term I expect Bitcoin to do well (also gold and silver).

I expect Bitcoin to do much better than gold and silver but I am more certain that gold and silver will do well. There is a very slight chance that Bitcoin goes to zero but none for gold and silver. But Bitcoin could do 100 time better than gold or silver.

https://thebluetassel.com/2015/05/26/he ... -way-love/

We will increase production as the black horse consumes them.

Between April 1 and October 1, the Fed did $250 billion per month in reverse repos, taking the balance of reverse repos from zero to $1.5 trillion, effectively taking $1.5 trillion off its balance sheet. Since October 1, the Fed has kept the reverse repo balance nearly steady at about $1.5 trillion.



At the same time, the Fed was doing $120 billion per month in QE. Since mid-November, as has been widely discussed, the Fed has started tapering its asset purchases.

Taking both of these actions and netting them, I believe the path of the "effective balance sheet" of the Fed would look like this:



If that's right, effective Fed actions since October 1 hardly can be considered to be tightening. Provided reverse repos don't increase, tightening won't happen until the Fed stops all QE and raises interest rates.

So why has the Fed quietly done $1.5 trillion in reverse repos? The only thing I can come up with is the Fed and the banks want a fast source of liquidity they can use on a moment's notice to stem any deflationary tide that takes them by surprise. Every time the markets collapse, the collapse is faster and steeper, so what they have done during past collapses may not be fast enough to stop it.

The old world order knows what is coming also. They also know it does not include them.
We seen this before long ago but we have a new wrinkle on supply chains given the trade lines to south east asia.
For those paying attention to the H.8 as we did early and the swap lines during the lock ups of the swaps
you can see where we actually are.
The true nature of the market and the misnomer of how money is even created still amuses a few.
Yes you are correct on this next market pivot upcoming and the balance sheet H as seen.
Example here: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... RY&view=1W

The reference - Around our LME observations...

The current only thinking Democrats knows whats coming since the wasting was a feature now generating what consumers cannot do which is think.

How to generate severe stagflation in the years 2010 through 2019 right on que thanks Washington provided below. Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:29 pm
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a new Measure of Fiscal Shocks, by Christina D. and David H. Romer (March 2007). (Christina Romer now chairs the president's Council of Economic Advisors). This study found that the tax multiplier is 3, meaning that each dollar rise in taxes will reduce private spending by $3."
In the same vein: This is from Professor Fisher's book entitled 100% Money, revised edition
published by The Adelphi Company (1936)
It was the Velvet rope period well underway from the cluster study white paper we unbraided here then.
H was instructive some key elements also as was a few more also. T

Zone issues like Politics are no accident since FDR.
(1 + i) = (1 + r) (1 + π) fisher

As we noted they are lucky it did not catch fire earlier. As Feidman said plainly and basically
what greed do all Governments not understand that they did not produce.

thread: Rule 2a-7

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfrUQA2tb6M

What is the real story on what the media is calling Manchin's blow?

vincecate wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 3:19 pm

richard5za wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 3:06 pm Hi Cool, I am getting views from Bitcoin investors on their real underlying views: When Bitcoin falls below $ 20 000 will you buy more? Sell? Hold? And why?

I think Bitcoin will crash when the stock market crashes. I am hoping to make money on S&P Puts during the crash and buy more Bitcoin at that time (also gold and silver).

Long term I think Bitcoin makes a "better money" than anything else. For each government money the government is stealing value by printing more all the time. This is a bad deal for all the users. The US government uses the power of US banks and Swift wire-transfer network to put sanctions on any country it wants to. Nobody has this power in Bitcoin. If the dollar falls I think Bitcoin will be used in many cases to replace it. I think the dollar is doomed. So long term I expect Bitcoin to do well (also gold and silver).

I expect Bitcoin to do much better than gold and silver but I am more certain that gold and silver will do well. There is a very slight chance that Bitcoin goes to zero but none for gold and silver. But Bitcoin could do 100 time better than gold or silver.

Yes, this is what I have been saying, vince understands it perfectly. It's also funny that if the market crashes and naturally that brings a lot of things down with it, the naysayers will be pounding and puffing out their chests but smart guys like vince and me will be buying more BTC, which will then go up and never go back down again, in any meaningful way - because it is the most pristine and portable asset, like Michael Saylor says.

will then go up and never go back down again, in any meaningful way

good luck is all that can be said

we will stick to 10yr/dxy/oil/metal/ plant to feed more livestock for now if/then we decide.

gbtc is getting pushed under the 50 moving average and may approach the 200 day ma so like any
other trade right now the dark pools will control it with world central banks already stated in more than a few zones
not for payments and in some we will simply disappear you. The only premium for it is virgin blocks until taproot pokes the ledger for taxes owed.
As not reported again blocks have vanished and a waste of time other than the true believers foaming from the mouth.
Almost as much entertaiment as watching the demsheviks and communist bitch and moan about a handful of actual democrats
that undestand the broke ass stupid will destroy and are whats left.
People bitch they got dumped into a ocean of lies as the sharks smell blood in current money pool and yes all governments are greedy
since they care about thing. Lie cheat steal and not you more than not as special interests ignore the Letter also.
As simply put the actual producers are hedging since they cannot be trusted period point blank.
The crayons chewers think race is still an issue. Its not.

The local people have sent water blankets and food and a trucking company is sending it.
All they will take is a blessing from above as this judgement period unfolds.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 6:01 pm So why has the Fed quietly done $1.5 trillion in reverse repos?

It is now $1.758 trillion

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=K4Lw

vincecate wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:08 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 6:01 pm So why has the Fed quietly done $1.5 trillion in reverse repos?

It is now $1.758 trillion

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=K4Lw

As I understand it, in a reverse-repo the Fed is selling a bond to a bank but contracting to buy it back at a certain fixed price some short time later. So the Fed is taking the risk of the bond crashing in value. Anyone who understands that 30 year bonds paying 2% when inflation is 6.8% or more can crash would rather do a reverse repo-than buy a bond outright.

Part of the start of hyperinflation is people selling their bonds and the central bank getting them. This may be what is really going on.
Reverse-repo is only for US Treasuries (these are long term and T-bills are shorter terms).
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq

"Eligible counterparties lend cash to the Fed in return for Treasury collateral on an overnight basis."

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 021-07-02/

It is peculiar that when banks are lending money to the central bank they are getting treasuries as collateral. There is no need for collateral,
as we know the central bank always has the ability to pay since it can print money. I almost wonder if the whole reverse-repo thing is just done to get people confused.

Thank you Vin for seeing how fiat dies in the wrong hands of lie cheat steal stupid. It was a feature to manage growth and not print
so if they are confused as who did care then as now also. Remember they always get it at the supermarket brainless mush. The only bloviated
facts are the amount of entilted grifters taking over and smothering marxist regulations that help who is the point of the matter.
No one complaining about sane envoiromental measures unlike the current facts over there you will be dead at 50 with lung cancer and dumping
that is so toxic it will take centurys to clean up and not decades like some current regimes in the west.
Like the facts are the sticky wage facts have contributed to the point water is NOW classified a essential solvent to even produce and getting much much worse.
As we are the current paid overnight premium for funding did stabilize and yes it has worked to date as they ignore fundamental facts to produce
and yes they still ignore what the Germans warned of as input cost to labot costs way back then also. The consomer pays. They are
paying over 20 bucks an hour to flip burgers. We supply to grow the burger we freeze since we planted to survive what was coming. They did not.
Getting people to produce not so much locally as import models do suggest and Keynesians debt grifters ignore since they are paid to ingnore it as first paid thieves. The program has worked and if you think they cannot see the energy deficiets at hand good luck with that. The essential compounds for mining needs are being attacked by nimby already that will and are suffocated EV anyways from areas as we speak. The term to stupid to survive covers it also as the current attack to manfacture essential battery technology they want as they smother the hydrocarbons they even need to survive competition from abraod also as they bitch aboud negative trade flows. We even posted the white papers on EV tech and what will kill it and did.

You have been around here long enough to see how it actually works since the lock ups
in the sweep accounts from the last crisis of confidence. Paulson's and Rubin's private looting cult blow out well known
in advance as the Senate knew three years before how it was going to detonate the real estate from the actual CRA policys
complaining about red circling or to say how to screw the Americans with ninja loans and tranche finance.
As you can see now the actual Pareto effect what happens to capital flows known for over 400 years.
The Pareto Principle is observed here also since we knew we could be just like them but with student debt as we understood
how the distribution curve is filled.

Also if/then also as five trillion is divided by two hundred fifty million ends up twenty thousand per person as a tax liability.
Each adult should owe 20K in taxes this year. Open border cults regimes are nothing new either.
Listen to them piss amd moan already about equity as they cough it up the innner city about fairness.
Now these half wits want billions more top down as our bones are being picked clean by the locusts.
No system has survived 125 percent GDP debt ever and we will not either with these educated retards in charge.

Make the brain dead district of columbia swamp dual passporters pay the cash difference things would balance and how.
This bull shit we owe it to ourselfs by demsheviks and neo-cons and the current unthinking uniparty drones needs to stop.
Things went off the rails way back in 1871 and yes President Grant did call them out also what the root issue was anyways also.
These victim hustlers are always the same and it will end the same way. Internal brain rot collapse by the politics of envy thieves.