Generational theory, international history and current events
https://www.gdxforum.com/forum/
In 2008 and 2009 the USA economy registered negative GDP, more in 2009 but a reflection of negative events in 2008John wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 10:46 am ** 04-Feb-2022 World View: Peak CPI
richard5za wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:06 am > My understanding is that investors are pricing this market at CPI
> 3.5% for 2022 and less than 2% for 2023.
If you look at my historical cpi page
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm
and you look at the year 2008, you can see that once the cpi peaks, it
starts to fall fairly quickly.
So when will the cpi reach a peak in the current context?
If you look at the last four values -- 5.39, 6.22, 6.81, 7.04 -- you
can see that the monthly increases are decreasing (i.e., the 2nd
derivative appears to be negative).
This suggests that the peak will occur in January or February (to be
announced on Feb 10 or Mar 10).
This is consistent with what I wrote to you last year in response to a
similar query:
John wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:11 am > So I'm suggesting that the end may come as early as February,
> thanks to the "corrective action" provided by such factors as
> supply chain problems clearing up, holiday-based demand
> decreasing, and post-holiday sales bringing retail prices down.
> It may start coming down a bit later than that, but the Law of
> Reversion of the Mean says that it won't be much later. And that
> doesn't mean that the cpi will fall below 2.62% in February. It
> means that the cpi will have peaked in February, and will start
> falling month after month, until it's below 2.62% and, indeed,
> until it's below 0.
