Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Tom Mazanec wrote:Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning
https://internationalman.com/articles/w ... h-turning/

Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.
History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.

What the difference between those and Generational Dynamics?

Two months into this PANDEMIC and the WHO just arrived in Wuhan!!! You can't make this stuff up.

Guest wrote:

Tom Mazanec wrote:Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning
https://internationalman.com/articles/w ... h-turning/

Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.
History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.

What the difference between those and Generational Dynamics?

GD is apolitical.

As of 1125 USA MST 22 Feb 2020:

It strains credulity that the COVID-19 Coronavirus statistics, especially Chinese Total_Deaths outside of Hubei, are true. Deaths in Hubei are probably also BS. They wouldn’t lock down hundreds of millions for the following. Anyway, using the available ‘Oh-Fish-All’ statistics just for Hubei:

Hubei_Fatality_rate* = ( Hubei_Total_deaths / ( Hubei_Total_deaths + Hubei_Total_recovered )) * 100%

= ( 2250 / ( 2250 + 13690 )) * 100%

= 14.1%

*Assumes patients are in roughly equal stages of the disease with only two exit criteria: death or recovery. Are recovered patients still carriers and/or susceptible to reinfection? Outside of Hubei the Chinese Fatality_Rate is at most a few percent.

Guest wrote:200 under observation in San Diego? My prediction is that this thing has already blown wide open in the US. California cases will be going exponential in the coming weeks. Up and down the west coast and Las Vegas won't escape.

None of this looks promising.

I would hope the US has a "manhattan project" level of effort started on this thing. The whole world economy will be a smoking hole in 6 months if they don't get a handle on this virus.

Guest wrote:

Guest wrote:200 under observation in San Diego? My prediction is that this thing has already blown wide open in the US. California cases will be going exponential in the coming weeks. Up and down the west coast and Las Vegas won't escape.

None of this looks promising.

I would hope the US has a "manhattan project" level of effort started on this thing. The whole world economy will be a smoking hole in 6 months if they don't get a handle on this virus.

You’re right on the smoking hole but I think it’s going to take much less time.

Guest wrote:

Guest wrote:200 under observation in San Diego? My prediction is that this thing has already blown wide open in the US. California cases will be going exponential in the coming weeks. Up and down the west coast and Las Vegas won't escape.

None of this looks promising.

I would hope the US has a "manhattan project" level of effort started on this thing. The whole world economy will be a smoking hole in 6 months if they don't get a handle on this virus.

There are huge crowds in Las Vegas today because of the caucuses.

Guest wrote:Two months into this PANDEMIC and the WHO just arrived in Wuhan!!! You can't make this stuff up.

WHO team visits Wuhan; will give Monday press conference'. Expect that will involve praising China, praising Xi and saying everything is all under control. WHO have shown themselves to be shockingly corrupt and totally inept in all this.

And on China's payroll.

John wrote:** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Spanish Flu

utahbob wrote: > Time to put your tin foil hats on:

> https://news.webindia123.com/news/Artic ... 09051.html

> Since the Corona virus is spreading into the the Middle East and
> Africa, would this stop the wars in Yemen, Libya, Iraq/Syria in
> their tracks as the Spanish Flu in 1918 with WWI? ...

Well, there's been big ethnic war going on in eastern DRC for years,
and the arrival of a new Ebola outbreak hasn't slowed it down, but in
fact has made Ebola an additional weapon of war.

The things that make this possible are: (1) The difficulty in
transmitting Ebola, requiring close physical contact, and (2)
aggressive use of newly developed vaccines.

Neither of those things apply with Covid-19. It can be transmitted
through the air, and there are no vaccines.

With regard to the Spanish Flu ending WW I, note that Russia and
the Mideast were in a generational Recovery era, with no desire for
another war, and Europe and America were in a generational Unraveling
era, also with no desire for war.

Today, much of the world is in a generational Crisis era, and many
countries are actively planning for wars of revenge. Army generals
would have to have ways of isolating coronavirus infections, but that
would stop them from waging war. Also, coronavirus may become a
weapon of war, as some people believe has already happened for the
Chinese.

How to Use Covid19 as a Bioweapon:
Concentrate people you want to kill.
Disperse people you want to live.

What has been the most "notable" concentration of people in recent memory?


Even if Covid19 is "natural", it can still be "deployed" as a nifty new weapon of opportunity (like a foundling gun in a knife fight).

Simply hyper concentrate your "undesirable" populations, and "disperse" your "desirable" populations.

China isn't in the least concerned about populations outside China, and since most "threatening" societies (countries) tend to be concentrated in cities, this "no effort" way of killing off "foreign devils" is exceedingly convenient.

My guess is that China found this "close-quarters killer" virus "somewhere" quite some time ago, probably a year of so before last September (2019), and was "grooming" it to be used in the Uighur camps, when something went awry and it escaped the lab due to its long incubation period.

Are the Chinese,.. sorry.. the CCP, REALLY that concerned about their massively bloated population?

They may kill off 2% to 8% of their total population. Can "China Inc." function with only 92% to 98% of their current population? After the "weird and worldwide commercial dislocation" is over, that "haircut" is rather trivial.

..but they can, and will, make damn sure that their pesky internal "security threats" will be concentrated and maximally exposed so as to wipe out as many as possible, probably with an enormously higher death rate than the "semi-dispersed" rate of 2.5% (or whatever the "normal" death rate turns out to be).


But,.. that may just be the machinations of some would-be sociopathic monster in a scary work of fiction.

Surely, we have to turn to fiction to find sociopathic monsters of this order in THIS day and age,.. right!?

I have thought about this too. Most of the dead seemed to be over 60. That's a great way to rid Chinese society of used up people. This is almost a polite way to commit mass murder.