In an analysis provided exclusively to MarketWatch, DeMark says lasting damage has been done because bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its peak. In prior declines, bitcoin held the 50% retracement levels.
“Typically, structural long term damage is done to an uptrend when a retracement exceeds 56%,” says DeMark, the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics and a consultant to hedge-fund manager Steven A. Cohen. “Such breakdowns bespeak a high probability recovery to the all-time bitcoin highs will require many years, if not decades, to accomplish.”
As a comparison, it took 25 years for stocks to exceed the prior September 1929 high.
But like the stock market after 1929, there could be a rally. “This does not negate the prospect of up to 50-56% recovery over upcoming months which implies bitcoin rally back to $40,000-$45,000.”
Some good news may be in store for bitcoin investors.
Depending on which timing model is applied, bitcoin recorded buy countdown 12 or 13 on Saturday morning. “Since this was accomplished over a weekend and a 7 day chart there remains modest risk of two lower lows and closes than Saturday levels next week. Regardless once there is a close above the close 4 days prior followed the next trading day with a higher high and close, the trend should reverse upside,” he says.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tom-d ... 1655719167
I agree and made this same prediction above yesterday based on my own work, which is different, before this article was published. I believed the most significant move higher since the all time high was coming or would happen soon from a slightly lower low.
Bitcoin could go back to $45,000 but I consider it unlikely.
Once this move higher is over, Bitcoin will resume its downward march toward zero.