Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Further reading about Iran and Wuhan Virus: https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-colu ... s-outbreak

Last post for the day. Check out the YouTube video, sheesh....https://www.bookwormroom.com/2020/03/02 ... and-faith/

** 03-Mar-2020 World View: WHO changes coronavirus (Covid-19) fatality rate to 3.4%

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the World Health Organization
(WHO), shocked reporters a couple of hours ago by saying that about
3.4% of confirmed coronavirus cases have died. This is contrasted
to the 0.1% death rate of the ordinary seasonal flu.

At the beginning of this crisis, I heard numbers like 2.1%. Then,
after a couple of weeks, the WHO announced that it was actually about
1%.

So today's announcement by Tedros is actually quite shocking. If
correct, it will mean additional tens of millions of deaths from
Covid-19 in the next year.

Other than that, the news is that coronavirus continues to spread, and
shows no signs of stopping. Financial markets continue to be in a
chaotic near-panic state.

---- Source:

-- Coronavirus more deadly than flu but containable: WHO's Tedros
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coro ... SKBN20Q2G6
(Reuters, 3-Mar-2020)

John wrote:... Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the World Health Organization
(WHO), shocked reporters a couple of hours ago by saying that about
3.4% of confirmed coronavirus cases have died. This is contrasted
to the 0.1% death rate of the ordinary seasonal flu. ...

I don't trust ANY of the "denominator" numbers, which are the "number of infected" stats, especially in China proper, and therefore can't have any respect for the death÷infected ratio.

What is the percentage of purported (reported) infected in China versus the rest of the planet?

You can do the maths as to what that means if China's infected stat is way off.

If the reported Chinese number is actually vastly low, that artificially raises the death rate.

The likelihood is that the Chinese number (denominator) is really much higher, which is a good thing as far as the death rate is concerned.

John wrote:... As I've said before, I never thought that Generational Dynamics was
going to make me rich and famous, but I did hope that I could make a
living from it. Generational Dynamics is an enormous advancement in
the analysis of history and the world, but instead of bringing me a
living, it's only brought me hatred and being shunned by people I've
known for years. It's been a personal disaster for me. Perhaps my
death will allow Generational Dynamics to be more widely recognized.

...

You're fatalistic because you're Greek. Comes with the genes, buckeroo..!

..and as to Jeremiah: http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/08334a.htm
(( Nifty Cassandra reference in there! ))

..which is why I'm Catholic, by the way, as I love the writing style.

The REASON you can't "make a living" off of GD Theory is that you will not allow yourself to be other than Cassandra who can (probably) grow a profound Grecian Moustaki!



..were you more a Celt you'd have the option to be sneeky and sly and backstabbing and opportunistic with any "secret knowledge" you might possess so as to capitalize on it, but your damned Greekitudeinessness (!?) won't permit such things, and insists rather that you find some subtle and honorable way to "accidentally" spike yourself with your own δόρυ.

The divine comedy continues... and will outlive us all...

From my previous list:
There are six things that are on the horizon:
1. Economic Chaos
2. Political Chaos
3. Disease
4. War
5. Famine
6. Natural Disasters

I would have thought that Disease would have followed War, possibly even followed Famine, but it is evidently the first thing that is happening.
As far as preparation, with something like this, I don’t think there is much you can do. Since this is an airborne virus, we are all going to eventually be exposed to it.

One should, however, get into a position where you are not in immediate danger from a disruption to tenuous supply chains. Every family should have a 6 month store of essentials on hand. That means foodstuffs and basic supplies (soap, TP, cooking oil, batteries and solar recharging systems for rudimentary lights). These would be needed under any of the situations listed above.

I recommend rice, beans, and canned vegetables, plus vitamin supplements. And get some basic water storage if possible, even if its just a bathtub liner you can fill with water.

By the way, when the Japanese economy was in ruins after WW II, the people that came out ahead were those that had the following to trade:
Soap
Foodstuffs
Cigarettes
Liquor
You either need the item, or you are desperate for it.

Gold didn’t do anyone much good, as there wasn’t really anything to buy.

** 03-Mar-2020 World View: Greek tragedy

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > You're fatalistic because you're Greek. Comes with the genes,
> buckeroo..!

I agree with that. The Greeks invented tragedy, and three of the four
great tragic artists of all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and
Euripides of ancient Greece, with the fourth being Shakespeare. So
Greeks understand tragedy better than anyone else.

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > The REASON you can't "make a living" off of GD Theory is that you
> will not allow yourself to be other than Cassandra who can
> (probably) grow a profound Grecian Moustaki!

You imply that I have a choice. I no longer believe in free will.

Tell me, oh Fishyfish, could you change your personality by choice?
Could you "allow yourself" to be other than the fishyfish that you
are?

Could Cassandra have "allowed herself" to be different? Cassandra was
a very beautiful woman, and it was Cassandra's beauty that caused Zeus
to want her. If she had simply "allowed herself" to let Zeus fulfill
his desire with her, then she'd still be alive today. Or, another
scenario, could Cassandra have said to her father, "Oh pish tosh, just
enjoy the Trojan horse and don't even think about soldiers inside"?
Could Cassandra have possibly done that? Cassandra had no free will.
Cassandra did what she was compelled to do.

Circling back around to tragedy, the essence of Greek tragedy is that
the tragic conclusion is inevitable, because of the nature, the
personality, the character of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot
be prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces
bringing about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.

So you're right, if I could "allow myself" to be someone completely
different, then my life might be different. But I have no free will
on the matter. That's the way it is.

• Cassandra

John, the modern day Socrates.

Your legacy may be the influence of a future civilization.

Assuming we don't destroy ourselves back into the Stone Age.

Navigator wrote:From my previous list:
There are six things that are on the horizon:
1. Economic Chaos
2. Political Chaos
3. Disease
4. War
5. Famine
6. Natural Disasters

I would have thought that Disease would have followed War, possibly even followed Famine, but it is evidently the first thing that is happening.
As far as preparation, with something like this, I don’t think there is much you can do. Since this is an airborne virus, we are all going to eventually be exposed to it.

One should, however, get into a position where you are not in immediate danger from a disruption to tenuous supply chains. Every family should have a 6 month store of essentials on hand. That means foodstuffs and basic supplies (soap, TP, cooking oil, batteries and solar recharging systems for rudimentary lights). These would be needed under any of the situations listed above.

I recommend rice, beans, and canned vegetables, plus vitamin supplements. And get some basic water storage if possible, even if its just a bathtub liner you can fill with water.

By the way, when the Japanese economy was in ruins after WW II, the people that came out ahead were those that had the following to trade:
Soap
Foodstuffs
Cigarettes
Liquor
You either need the item, or you are desperate for it.

Gold didn’t do anyone much good, as there wasn’t really anything to buy.

Don't forget firearms and ammo. Especially if you live near a large city with a feral population.

These people are killing themselves in the most comfortable time in human history, what do you think they are going to do when the food stamps and welfare stop coming in?

John wrote:** 03-Mar-2020 World View: Greek tragedy

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > You're fatalistic because you're Greek. Comes with the genes,
> buckeroo..!

I agree with that. The Greeks invented tragedy, and three of the four
great tragic artists of all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and
Euripides of ancient Greece, with the fourth being Shakespeare. So
Greeks understand tragedy better than anyone else.

You mean William Psystheokakis Shakespeare?

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > The REASON you can't "make a living" off of GD Theory is that you
> will not allow yourself to be other than Cassandra who can
> (probably) grow a profound Grecian Moustaki!

You imply that I have a choice. I no longer believe in free will.

And although it believes in you, you are free to believe as you wish.

Tell me, oh Fishyfish, could you change your personality by choice?
Could you "allow yourself" to be other than the fishyfish that you
are?

No, I couldn't,.. but then, I'm a Celt and not a Greek! Therefore, I have more "intrinsic" options.

Could Cassandra have "allowed herself" to be different? Cassandra was
a very beautiful woman, and it was Cassandra's beauty that caused Zeus
to want her. If she had simply "allowed herself" to let Zeus fulfill
his desire with her, then she'd still be alive today. Or, another
scenario, could Cassandra have said to her father, "Oh pish tosh, just
enjoy the Trojan horse and don't even think about soldiers inside"?
Could Cassandra have possibly done that? Cassandra had no free will.
Cassandra did what she was compelled to do.

Cassandra wouldn't BE Cassandra if she'd done un-Cassandra things, so....

This is what (doesn't really but I'll pretend for now) confuses me about your "theology".

You assert that all is fate and there is no "plan" for "the world", while simultaneously asserting that certain things MUST happen because they are inevitable!

Are you simply saying that there IS a preordained "plan" but there is no "agent" or "planner" of that plan?

..that would be my guess.

To me, the "story" is the thing. Cassandra DID have free will, and could choose her course, and she did so KNOWING (or at least discovering) that she'd get smacked around for the choices she would make.

It's "a better story", a more interesting story, WITH free will in the mix as opposed to not having free will in the mix. It says more about "human nature", about "non-human nature", and about the options that we puny humans actually have. Should we be dishonorable and survive as lesser beings, or heroically go down in history as an object lesson in (futile in this case) sacrifice, for those who hear our story to learn from.

I mock my Celtic ancestors for their TYPICAL dishonorable and fratricidal tendencies, but that is another option taught in story for our ancestors to learn from.

Circling back around to tragedy, the essence of Greek tragedy is that
the tragic conclusion is inevitable, because of the nature, the
personality, the character of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot
be prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces
bringing about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.

The true tragedy cannot be prevented because those who foresee it choose not to do "whatever it would take" to stop it, because doing so would "spoil the moral of the story", which means: "make a character incongruous with itself."

The author decides what Cassandra CAN and WILL do, and COULD decide a successful invocation of a thunderbolt from Zeus would solve the dilemma, but doesn't. Why?

The lesson is in the story, and the lesson is more important than happy endings.
(( ..which also gets back to the whole "why is there evil" conundrum. ))

So you're right, if I could "allow myself" to be someone completely
different, then my life might be different. But I have no free will
on the matter. That's the way it is.

We can place the author of our life's story wherever we please, as that's ultimately what "free will" means.

BIG huge alohas to you 'ol buddy! If I really did "whatever it takes" I could have you well taken care of, in the money department, but I'm simply not that interested in your story, or making you a significant theme in my story.

Why is that?

..my Celt-ness and your Greek-ness,.. that's why.