Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: Ah,.. but when you realize that ones religion is REALLY just the accumulated mass of beliefs that you actually DO believe, you quickly discover that people DO care about their "religion", especially when you somehow threaten those beliefs.

In fact, when you illustrate how disconnected and mutually conflicted their actual beliefs are with each other, they can become hysterically (in the humorous and not humorous senses of the word) fanatical and violent.
We are living in post-Christian Europe (and perhaps North America, especially Canada). Christianity has lost its hold of white people. That's a fact. It's obvious. When my father left the Church, he didn't become an atheist. He converted to another religion. Today the average European isn't even baptized. In Eastern Europe, religion is part of cultural identity, not a sincere faith.

Consumerism is the new religion. That's why the world is so screwed up. Religion drew in people who were willing to sacrifice themselves for the greater good. Now people will stab you in the back for a smartphone. The world has become a shallow and directionless place. Young Greeks have not 'always been like that.' No. Today young people give God and religion very little thought.

We are living in a new Age of Enlightenment.The problem is, people have access to a lot of information, but still only use it to buy lipstick or play computer games. Or look at porn, buy drugs, and gamble. The average person is an empty headed, unskilled, narcissistic loser. We are all in trouble.
As the hairy little guy in Joe Versus the Volcano said: "I'm not ARGUING that with you....!" :)

Our delightful so-called "Educational Systems" have convinced people (children and "the gullible") that "Religion" is nominal (or better) membership in a named institution with a bank account and (usually) tax advantages.

That is not what religion is. Religion is simply a person's complete set of actually believed beliefs. Period.

Religion is an intrinsic property of being a human being.

You don't have to agree to that "fact". Disagreeing with it is simply another part of your religion, and to the extent that you MUST have your religion validated (as to that particular item of faith/belief) you will "fight to convert" those who don't agree with you.

And that applies to ANY individual belief in your religion.

But people, even these days, just like all other "days", are very touchy about having their beliefs, their religion, disrespected.
FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

richard5za wrote:
John wrote:** 04-Mar-2020 World View: Protestant vs Catholic
Guest wrote: > I'm ethnic Portuguese and all of my Portuguese ancestors were
> Catholic, but I am Protestant. Being a Portuguese Protestant
> Christian has made me into a societal unicorn. ...
Why did you choose to be a Protestant rather than a Catholic? As a
Christian in a Catholic country, wouldn't you have been better off as
a Catholic?
I am a Jesuit educated Catholic of British origin married to a Portuguese Catholic. The first thing to understand about Catholicism is that there are hundreds of different forms or spiritualities. There are more orders in the Catholic Church than you can shake a stick at. ...
Catholicism means "universal spiritual home for mankind". (OK,.. that's my definition.)

Not everybody wants to live in the same house. But if "home" means "our country", or "our world", then ones house can be quite far away.

The best "home" is the one with the least number of "dogmas" (true dogmas); with dogmas that require and prohibit only very very important things.

Remember: Doctrines are not dogmas. Dogmas are unchangeable recommendations to the wise. When a (so-called) dogma is shown to be unwise, then it was never a dogma, but merely a doctrine, and a "new" dogma is "refined" from the "remains" of the now non-dogma.

Do I (really) believe that my wacky Tengriist Catholic self-designation is "for real"?

Yes, I do. It IS purposefully provocative. It is weird. But it makes sense, to me, and I do believe it describes "who I am" and is quite compatible within the "big home" of Catholicism, precisely because both Catholicism and Tengriism each have amazingly small (few) actual dogmas with which to comply.

..it's also a great jumping off point to enormously entertaining conversation! <chuckle!>
Last edited by FishbellykanakaDude on Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:** 04-Mar-2020 World View: Protestant vs Catholic
Guest wrote: > I'm ethnic Portuguese and all of my Portuguese ancestors were
> Catholic, but I am Protestant. Being a Portuguese Protestant
> Christian has made me into a societal unicorn. Other Portuguese,
> even ones that are atheists, look at me a bit sideways. But most
> really don't care. Catholicism is more to do with cultural
> identity than true faith in many cultures.

> My father left the Catholic Church and he never looked back. He
> had no regrets. He died without receiving Final Rites. He had no
> interest in them.

> I wasn't raised to be anything in particular, but I did grow up
> thinking of myself as a Christian. I chose to be Protestant at
> 19. It was a good decision because the current Pope is a left-wing
> lunatic.
Why did you choose to be a Protestant rather than a Catholic? As a
Christian in a Catholic country, wouldn't you have been better off as
a Catholic?
It's a rather complicated story, but it boils down to belief. I don't regret my decision. I don't believe in having a barrier between me and God. I don't believe in confession. I don't believe one needs a priest to have a relationship with God.The Catholic church is really creepy because it is now filled with creepy clergymen.

I don't live in Portugal, but my religion has nothing to do with it. Other Portuguese aren't rude about it. I don't think they really care. Gay marriage has been legal in Portugal since 2010. Portugal is very 'modern' now...
FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:
John wrote:... Why did you choose to be a Protestant rather than a Catholic? As a Christian in a Catholic country, wouldn't you have been better off as a Catholic?
It's a rather complicated story, but it boils down to belief. I don't regret my decision. I don't believe in having a barrier between me and God. I don't believe in confession. I don't believe one needs a priest to have a relationship with God.The Catholic church is really creepy because it is now filled with creepy clergymen.

I don't live in Portugal, but my religion has nothing to do with it. Other Portuguese aren't rude about it. I don't think they really care. Gay marriage has been legal in Portugal since 2010. Portugal is very 'modern' now...
It (any church, or Church) has always been filled with creepy clergymen.

That's the very nature of clergymen. Nothing new at all about that.

And you do believe in confession, just not the "booth with the proscribed words with the Priest" ritual. Confession is simply the freely given truly contrite request for forgiveness (from the only "authority" from whom forgiveness is meaningful) for an admittedly "bad behavior" (sin).

Am I right? :)

And the Priest is nothing more than a "helper" who may or may not be more educated in the dogmas and doctrines of "the forms" of communal behavior, but is certainly NOT anyone to be "worshiped" or treated other than as a person with a certificate of achievement in studying certain various bits of knowledge.

..I've never had particularly good relationships with "teachers" (knowledge helpers), usually due to their arrogance and shear incompetence, so a guy with a collar who typically/habitually goes "off the rails" while demonstrating his competency, which is what I've seen ALL clergymen do far too regularly, is not a huge surprise, and is not a reason for me (at least) to discard the underlying structure of the "dogmatic world view" of the Church.

Just to be clear: Dogma is not an evil thing, while having too many (aka: unnecessary) dogmas is an evil thing.

But,.. that's just me. :) <chuckle!>
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote: You do one dangerous, crazy, irrational thing after another because
you're totally under the control of your severe Asperger's Syndrome.
You're a robot with no free will whatsoever, because of your severe
Asperger's Syndrome. You should check yourself into an institution
for your own safety and the safety of others, because your actions are
dangerous and unpredictable.
This is so fucking ridiculous I can only assume you are trolling that other person. If this isn't a troll, then you have just shown that you have no fucking clue how Asperger's Syndrome works, and I am deeply offended by your willful ignorance (or is it arrogance in this case?) and misconceptions. If you had said that to me, to my face, the resulting beatdown would leave you in the hospital, and it would not do a goddamn thing to validate your mistaken argument.

As someone who is following this site for one of the few remaining reliable sources of news in today's world, I feel the need to state that you are rapidly losing respect points. But hey, we know you don't give a shit about offending others, and we know you plan to take the coward's way out any day now instead of choosing to fight for your continued survival and continue to leave your insight with those who actually care. So what-fucking-ever, right?
John
Posts: 11501
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 05-Mar-2020 World View: Beatdown
Guest wrote: > If you had said that to me, to my face, the resulting beatdown
> would leave you in the hospital, and it would not do a goddamn
> thing to validate your mistaken argument.
I would say that you've proven my point. If all it takes is a few
words in an online post to trigger that kind of uncontrolled violence
in you, then you also should check yourself into an institution, for
your own safety and the safety of others, because your actions are
dangerous and unpredictable.

I will also give you some advice. You should not threaten people with
violence. If you threaten someone with violence, and then something
happens to that person, then you'll become a suspect, and it may be
possible for the police to use your digital tracks to find you.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 05-Mar-2020 World View: Latest Coronavirus updates

Several days ago I described the latest updates in the Wuhan
Coronavirus (Covid-19) emergency. The following repeats that list,
with some updates and further context. These are my personal
conclusions, based on the thousands of reports that I've heard or
read.

My main conclusion is that the base scenario is that economic growth
will remain essentially at zero, and there will be no recovery until a
vaccine is developed, which experts say will not happen until 2021.
This is the predicted scenario assumed by this article. The details
of the predicted recovery are at the end of this article.
  • Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) is spreading rapidly, and is
    showing no signs of stopping.
  • China claims that it's stopped in China, but no one knows what
    will happen when the draconian restrictions are lifted that are
    currently keeping tens of millions of people quarantined and isolated.
    However, South Korea appears to be having success with strict but less
    draconian restrictions.
  • Many people are hoping that the warm summer weather will stop
    spread of the virus, but Singapore, which is on the equator and has
    warm summer weather, just had several new confirmed cases in the last
    few days. And even if the summer weather slowed the spread of the
    virus, history shows that it would return in full force in the
    fall.
  • Sooner or later, everyone in the world will be exposed to
    Covid-19. 80% of the cases will be mild. Another 10% will be
    serious, but curable. The other 10% will be extremely serious, and
    will lead to some deaths. Most of the deaths will occur among the
    elderly, or people with a history of smoking.
  • On Tuesday (Mar 5), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the
    World Health Organization (WHO), shocked reporters by saying that
    about 3.4% of confirmed coronavirus cases have died. This is
    contrasted to the 0.1% death rate of the ordinary seasonal flu. At
    the beginning of this crisis, I heard numbers like 2.1%. Then, after
    a couple of weeks, the WHO announced that it was actually about 1%.
    So Tueday's announcement by Tedros is actually quite shocking.
  • Infection does not provide protection from reinfection.
    Reinfected patients have a high death rate.
  • When someone dies of coronavirus, it usually means that there is a
    cluster of undiagnosed cases behind it.
  • Coronavirus is an economic disaster for China. China is overdue
    for a massive anti-government rebellion, the first since Mao's
    Communist Revolution civil war, and coronavirus could be the
    trigger.
  • Businesses will be looking for ways to repair their broken supply
    chains as quickly as possible, by seeking alternate suppliers.
  • Most companies will be at least partially back in business by
    summer, looking for ways -- robotics, working at home, hazmat suits,
    etc. -- to get things going again. For example, medical services will
    increasingly use a "Teledoc" model.
  • Companies that depend on crowds of people will look for ways (such
    as using separation booths in restaurants) to maintain a sufficient
    social distance between people.
  • Each country will use containment as its first strategy --
    tracking and testing travelers and others who might be infected,
    identifying others by means of contact tracing, and requiring those
    who fail the test to be isolated and quarantined in the homes or hotel
    rooms.
  • When the containment strategy fails, each country will move to a
    mitigation and risk reduction strategy -- close public gatherings,
    encourage or force large populations of people to stay at home, shut
    down all mass travel -- air, bus and train. In Japan, for example, a
    closely scrutinized decision will be about the Tokyo Olympics which,
    if canceled, would have devastating consequences for Japan's
    economy.
  • The objective of both the containment and mitigation strategies is
    to buy as much time as possible until a vaccine can be deployed.
  • Lots of companies are working on vaccines, and something may be
    available for test purposes in a few weeks. However, it will be at
    least a year before a vaccine can be widely deployed, according to
    multiple experts.
  • Wall Street stocks are in the biggest bubble in history, and the
    same is true of stock exchanges in many other countries. It is 100%
    certain that this bubble will burst at some point, leading to a global
    panic and financial crisis. It's possible that the Coronavirus crisis
    will be the trigger.
My base scenario for the unfolding of the coronavirus crisis is as
follows:
  • Continued financial and business losses, with only marginal
    recovery, for a year.
  • No recovery until a vaccine can be widely deployed, which experts
    say won't happen for a year.
  • A strong V-shaped recovery as a vaccine becomes deployed in
    2021.
The recovery could be sped up if a vaccine could be deployed more
quickly, but experts insist that this is impossible.

On the other hand, the recovery could be derailed for years if the
current stock market bubble bursts and there's a major international
financial crisis, which history tells us is overdue.

The recovery could also be derailed by war. China's economy is
extremely unstable, and Mideast ethnic rivalries are churning up, and
either of these situations could spiral into a larger war -- which
history tells us is also overdue.

All in all, it will take about a year for the world to return to
"normal," but that will be a "new normal," living side-by-side with
Coronavirus. However, WW III and a global financial crisis may well
begin within a year. By 2021, the world will be a very different
place.

General advice from the experts: Wash your hands, cough into your
sleeve, and don't touch your face.
FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:
John wrote: You do one dangerous, crazy, irrational thing after another because ...
This is so fucking ridiculous I can only assume you are trolling that other person. ...

As someone who is following this site for one of the few remaining reliable sources of news in today's world, I feel the need to state that you are rapidly losing respect points. But hey, ... So what-fucking-ever, right?
I think he's both highly pissed-off (aka a bit crazy) AND mockingly trolling.

Well,.. I fully KNOW he's PO'd, and just "suspect" that his remarks were calculated to chide the other guy into a mock slap fight to amuse the crowd,.. but I wouldn't write John off for lettin' lose this one time. :)

I also suspect that John is ON the Asperger's Spectrum, somewhere "very mild", as everyone in here probably is <chuckle!>, 'cuz we're all such predictive psycho-history geeks and "what if" enthusiasts.

My tavern behavior is to have the limited bar fight and then help each other off the floor and buy each other drinks til it's time to go home...

..drink up, "gentlemen"... ain't time to go home just yet...
zzazz

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by zzazz »

Kudos to John for an excellent summary and reasonable prognosis of the coronavirus situation.
Navigator
Posts: 1030
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

One of the six crisis that I believe is coming is a political one. I believe that this crisis will precede war. I think that due to the chaos that it could unleash in the United States, our enemies will think that the nation is divided internally and will not be able to respond properly to their aggression.

A very viable source of this crisis would be what would happen if there is no clear winner in the Electoral College after the voting in November.

I believe there is a very good possibility of the extreme left breaking off of the Democratic party and Bernie Sanders running as an independent. There is also some possibility of a "middle ground" party, of say Bloomberg/Romney, also pitching in to break people off of the Republican party.

Almost no-one understands what would happen if there is not a majority in the Electoral College. And this could easily be the case if, say, California was to go with Sanders, and the others split with less than 50% of the electors.

What would happen is called a Contingent Election. The INCOMING members of the House of Representatives (not the lame duck Congress, now controlled by the Democrats) would vote for the President.

But it would NOT be a case where each Representative has one vote. INSTEAD, each STATE would have one vote, decided on by the majority of representatives from each state. Under this system, Wyoming would have as much of a say as California does.

If you thought that the derangement over the Electoral College that we saw after the last election was bad, just wait for something like this to occur. It would become a major constitutional crisis with people believing that their voices had been "overturned".

I think that many would at that point reject the democratic/republic form of government that we have, and ally themselves with actual wartime enemies. But I also think, as does John here, that the great majority will flock to the colors and defend the nation.
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