Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I have had another look at BTC pricing history; maybe it was a bit harsh saying that BTC pricing was bubble mania, albeit that I acknowledge that blockchain has societal benefits, but no one seems clear about the value or to whom it will accrue.

Now two questions:
Is BTC tradeable?
Is BTC investible?

If I look at the price charts of January 1 2022 to current day, I really don't have the skill to short term trade BTC. I am a successful stock market trader but BTC is beyond my trading competence. Every trade would simply be a bet of unknown odds; maybe you win today but not tomorrow

Then as an investment? It went from over $ 50 000 in January 2022 through to $ 17 663 last Saturday with massive volatility. And with no underlying changes like prospects of increased future profitability. And its very different to gold where we can track a correlation between inflation and the gold price over the long term, and gold has a 5000 year history as a store of value. If BTC was a stock market share would it be the darling of the market? Or the pariah? Or something in between? Then there's a moral issue - BTC is favoured by terrorists and criminals because ownership and transactions can be hidden. So its not a building block of a solid happy society.

Bubble mania as the underlying driver of the price? Yes, I believe so.

And finally there's nothing unusual about bubble mania. We can track it back hundreds of years. For example, tulips also had an underlying value, as does block chain, but the tulip prices became bubble mania

Multi Billion of crypto stolen to date.
Cesspool as they drain liquidity.
The ensconced true believers think it is set up for rebound.
After we shorted it and bought lightswitch equity we left it for dead
as the vultures gathered. Not saying the DEFI block chain for micro loans is not viable
for the non aligned economy just littered with time series payments against leveraged actors.
The lockup are and have been expected.

https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/ncas/alerts

https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/ncas/alerts/aa22-108a

The ability to short it went to SEC listed assets. Those will be held over a year for obvious tax purposes.
The wrapper is GGN. To listen the White House bitch piss and moan about risk and Says law is insulting to taxpayers
as lower the river to remove the obvious.

Forward Dividend & Yield 0.36 (9.84%) Ex-Dividend Date Jul 14, 2022

We now know who was selling: according to Goldman's Prime Brokerage, hedge funds - the so-called "smart money" at least until Melvin Capital showed everyone just how dumb said money really was - sold US stocks for a seventh straight day Monday when the S&P sank to a bear market, with the dollar amount of selling over the last two sessions (Friday and Monday) exploding to levels never before seen by Goldman, which is remarkable because the bank's records go back to April 2008 which means they capture the chaos from the Global Financial Crisis.
In other words, we just saw a more frenzied liquidation than what took place in the immediate aftermath of Lehman! T

We are content to miss last week.
The amount of dead cats baking in the sun as noted from the spreader was another reflexive action.

search.php?keywords=+reflexive+&t=2&sf=msgonly

Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:46 pm notes and the cascading facets that come with it appear on task to date.

thread: reflexive.
thread: LITC, 936, CCI, CIC, lightswitch, velvit rope

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGO9jNHH5Lw

The air is about to be sucked out as the wasting snaps the ruthless arbiters.
Buttnut can fly planes in a stern letter.
We know those folks down Yoder. It was past lesser then advertised was noted.
Failed worshippers of molek their master. They are not sophisticates.
Not able to be even a Rumshpringa washout.
Doom Loop in credit is fine with those Amish since they did not cause Galileo to crawl.
It was science vs science and religion vs religion, not science vs religion.
The same is true now.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=EJSlYA1O

1. The ideology and purpose of the propaganda campaign
2. The context in which the propaganda occurs
3. Identification of the propagandist
4. The structure of the propaganda organization
Much of the American right is hostile toward the press, but there’s not much research seeking to understand why, or what it means.
Funding from the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University.
5. The target audience
6. Media utilization techniques
7. Special techniques to maximize effect
8. Audience reaction to various techniques
9. Counter propaganda, if present
10. Effects and evaluation
note: After Hitler came to power, the Frankfurt intellectuals came to the United States.
Ironically, Adorno, the hater of popular culture, settled in Los Angeles. Marcuse ended up in NYC,
where the work of the Frankfurt School was continued on a formal basis at Columbia University.

The book's purpose is to make every group affiliation sound as if it were a sign of mental disorder. Everything from patriotism to religion to family -- and race -- loyalty are signs of a dangerous and defective "authoritarian personality." Because drawing distinctions between different groups is illegitimate, all group loyalties -- even close family ties! -- are "prejudice." As Christopher Lasch has written, the book leads to the conclusion that prejudice "could be eradicated only by subjecting the American people to what amounted to collective psychotherapy -- by treating them as inmates of an insane asylum."
The first attempt was 1986 on our group. It was a graduate student from Cornell. The internalized drones fell head first.

These upcoming clown face paint show will be a Frankfurt School wet dream since the cult was removed deriving itself from social theory
and critical philosophy associated with the Institute for Social Research, at Goethe University Frankfurt in 1929.
Founded in the Weimar Republic (1918-1933), during the European interwar period. Straight out of the pit from the 1840's deceptions.

The bourgeoisie will remember my carbuncles until their dying day, Marx told Engels in a letter from 1867.
The analysis we utilized is from the 1840 to 1884 intellectual pivot point from the Pari café liberals Sismondi mentioned also.

Europe will crack first. Hunter beat them all.

thread: september, Quindecimviri sacris faciundis
thread: 1958

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1YBUCabXXY

Flexibility to produce both fuels and petrochemicals as they piss and moan about joeys crash helmet.

Priceless.
Abject stupidity.

richard5za wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:08 am I have had another look at BTC pricing history; maybe it was a bit harsh saying that BTC pricing was bubble mania, albeit that I acknowledge that blockchain has societal benefits, but no one seems clear about the value or to whom it will accrue.

I wrote up something trying to look at why Bitcoin is valuable. Not a trivial question...

https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2022/0 ... uable.html

Continuing the subject of bear market rallies here are some interesting figures on the bear market rallies from 2001/ 2003 and 2008/2009:

2001-2003 bear market: The magnitude of those bear market rallies was +11%, +10%, +20%, +24%, +24%, +25%.

The 2008-2009 bear market saw rallies of +16%, +8%, +17% and +26% before a final flush out in March 2009

So I could imagine that the S&P 500 could go higher than the 4000 index I previously predicted as this would only be a rally of 8.8%. Perhaps 4200 or 4400?

The other question is how long will it last?

vincecate wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:24 pm

richard5za wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:08 am I have had another look at BTC pricing history; maybe it was a bit harsh saying that BTC pricing was bubble mania, albeit that I acknowledge that blockchain has societal benefits, but no one seems clear about the value or to whom it will accrue.

I wrote up something trying to look at why Bitcoin is valuable. Not a trivial question...

https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2022/0 ... uable.html

Yes, faith is essential.
You are right Vince.
So ecomonically speaking one of the first reqirements for money to be trusted is stability and a long term store of value. Money needs to be the safest place, albeit that it is erroded by inflation and therefore inflation needs control; so minimum risk unlike various investments that have levels of risk, e.g. stocks being quite high risk. So if the value of money goes from 1 dollar to 50 000 dollar over 10 years there is no stability, and if it then goes from $ 50 000 to $ 20 000 in 6 months there is no stability and no store of value. BTC is not a safe place. Not easy to trust.

If you look at a chart of the dollar index against a basket of other currencies, in the long term its very stable. However with more recent bubble markets, war and other uncertainties since June 2021 the index has risen from 90 to 104.9 currently, an appreciation of over 16%. So globally the dollar is still the safe haven. The USA is still the world's number one economy, and still the world leader in most everything.

So the question is what and how does something replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency? Surely not something that has had a very rocky and volatile start. More likely something with multi-government backing. And it will take a long time.

I have come to the conclusion that, if you placed every economist in the world one on top of the other, they still could not make a correct prediction.