Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bY46elZFKmc Some actual math and facts ignored.

Higgie, you have been doing some interesting work.
My q uestion is do I buy and hold (Or sell and hold) or do I short term trade
So my view is determine your type of trading from the trend and especially considering the P?E ratio trend. So for example look at a chart of the Dow 1900 through to 2000 for the P/E ratio only You will see that in this 100 year period there were 4 up P/E ratio trends and 4 down P/E ratio trends, even as low as 5.
Since ther P/E ratio is the greatest driver of share price in an up P/E ratio trend you buy and hold. So if h
the P/E ratio goes for 8 to 24 you have a 3 fold increase in price before the earnings pushes it up further. In a down P/E ratio trend you short term trade mostly in shorts rather than longs.
Another view.
I have done well this year short term trading so far averaging a gain of just over 8% per month compound calculated. I think more than 2/3rds of the trades have been same day, nothing longer than a week. I always set up the stop losses when I enter the trade so that large losses never materialise (they stop out)

The Fed is going to hurt the market(s) even more after this small bear rally, when inflation data and recession confirmations come. They will eventually pivot, but it'll be too late. I'd wait til the further carnage occurs.

We are watching Doctor Cooper and BTC to QQQ like everyone else.
We do think the demshevik public has not a clue as Captain Oatmeal wasting
intensifies has left them lock stock and barrel. Uniparty is a disgrace.
We read the same damn chart He did on elecrtical output and the esg cults projections.


https://www.longtermtrends.net/
R the pain is just started as more are permantley left behind just as your area witnessed.
The Favela warning was ignored from that zone to here and is now here.

You need to back track to the fact of the real yields calculated by subtracting the actual inflation rate from
the nominal interest rates (rather than by subtracting the expected inflation rate).
Nothing they spew going forward matters as the sheep, muppets, penguins, barking seal demsheviks get
educated on the wasting. It is a feature.
The more they print the more you will do as the wasting takes them out. It is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBRCKlIVZW4 Scott Ritter
US money going to commanders who don’t have to pay dead soldiers or their families.

Or even pretend to account for the poor souls.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/zOnWcf2lbY0x/
No one wins as we are looted also.

richard5za wrote: Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:38 am Higgie, you have been doing some interesting work.
My q uestion is do I buy and hold (Or sell and hold) or do I short term trade
So my view is determine your type of trading from the trend and especially considering the P?E ratio trend. So for example look at a chart of the Dow 1900 through to 2000 for the P/E ratio only You will see that in this 100 year period there were 4 up P/E ratio trends and 4 down P/E ratio trends, even as low as 5.
Since ther P/E ratio is the greatest driver of share price in an up P/E ratio trend you buy and hold. So if h
the P/E ratio goes for 8 to 24 you have a 3 fold increase in price before the earnings pushes it up further. In a down P/E ratio trend you short term trade mostly in shorts rather than longs.
Another view.
I have done well this year short term trading so far averaging a gain of just over 8% per month compound calculated. I think more than 2/3rds of the trades have been same day, nothing longer than a week. I always set up the stop losses when I enter the trade so that large losses never materialise (they stop out)

Richard, which PE ratio do you favor to find the PE ratio trend - trailing 12 month, forward, Shiller, etc.? Do you find that the PE ratio trend and price trend ever deviate from each other when you use the PE ratio you favor?

Looking at PE ratios of sectors of the market that have existed throughout most of market history (like autos) shows many in single digits near previous historical lows in PE. Some notable investors are saying the market is cheap here (Ron Baron being a recent example). However, I think in most cases this is due to the earnings (and margins) being temporarily bloated rather than the stocks being truly cheap. If earnings were to fall faster than the stock prices, PE ratios could go up from here at the same time stock prices go down. Would that indicate that the stock market is a buy? Something like this happened in 2008 where the PE ratio actually spiked up as the market made its low. In the fourth quarter of 2008 S&P 500 earnings went negative.

I follow 8 traders who have a good record of calling intermediate term trends in the market. Their positions and targets (where they have them) are:

1. Long from a higher level. The S&P is going to 5,000.
2. Long from a much higher level. The S&P is going to a new record high.
3. No Position. The market is at a bifurcation point and a position will be taken long or short when direction is determined. The short term, medium term and long term trends are down. The short term trend is close to turning up.
4. Long from near the low. The short term trend is up. The medium and long term trends are down.
5. No position. Sentiment is very bearish and odds favor a swing up to a new record high from this area or lower.
6. 17% long this month after selling out near the high. Will be buying in equal amounts each month from July to November. Sometime this year, the Fed will point to weakness in housing, the labor market, retail sales, etc., and quickly lower rates to zero and start record QE.
7. No position. The main trend is down. The short term trend is up. The downtrend will resume from here. Confirmation is required before taking a short position.
8. Long from near the low. The S&P will be up for a few weeks before the downtrend resumes. Target is 4400.

What stands out to me is that 4 of the 8 are fully long while none are short. If this is representative of what is going on in the market, any break in the market could result in a lot of selling pressure.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had accumulated $144 billion in cash as of few months ago. Buffett has been saying for years that he hasn't seen much worth buying. According to what I've been reading, Buffett has recently deployed about 35% of his cash hoard into energy stocks and low PE stocks, among others.

I'm just quoting a section of an article highlighting the single digit PE stocks he has been buying because I've been discussing low PE stocks and whether they are worth buying now.

Another thing that should be mentioned is Buffett has stated he will never let Berkshire's cash position go below $30 billion, which means he has deployed 44% of the cash he would make available for purchases.

Here Are All 16 Stocks Warren Buffett Has Bought Since 2022 Began
By Sean Williams - Jun 15, 2022 at 4:06AM

The Oracle of Omaha has put more than $50 billion to work this year.

Value stocks are a Buffett specialty

If there's one prevailing theme with the vast majority of Buffett's buying activity through the first five months and change of 2022, it's that value is paramount (no pun intended given the purchase of shares of Paramount). Buying highly profitable, time-tested businesses at a discount has been the Oracle of Omaha's priority.

For instance, Berkshire Hathaway took a greater-than-11% stake in personal computing and printing solutions company HP. The growth heyday for HP has long since passed. But it remains exceptionally profitable and is valued at roughly eight times forecast earnings for this year and 2023. Consumer and enterprise demand for PCs doesn't vacillate much, which makes HP a relatively safe bet in a volatile market.

The same can be said for auto giant General Motors, which is trading at just five times Wall Street's forecast earnings for this year. Despite numerous headwinds, such as supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, General Motors looks to have a sizable growth runway thanks to the industry's ongoing shift to electric vehicles (EVs). GM plans to invest $35 billion in EVs, autonomous vehicles, and batteries through the midpoint of the decade.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/ ... 022-began/

Warren Buffett must really love oil. Berkshire boosts Occidental Petroleum stake

By Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business

Updated 10:34 AM ET, Thu June 23, 2022


New York (CNN Business)Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is betting that the oil boom isn't going to end any time soon.

Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in a regulatory filing late Wednesday that it spent about $529 million to buy nearly 9.6 million shares of Occidental Petroleum in the past week.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) made the purchases between June 17 and June 22. Buffett's conglomerate now owns a 16.3% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), making it by far the largest owner of the stock. Mutual fund giant Vanguard is the second biggest investor, with a nearly 11% position in the company.

Occidental Petroleum is the best performer in the S&P 500 this year, rising 92% as crude prices have soared. Shares were up more than 3% in early trading Thursday.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/23/investin ... index.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPJK6A0ERyE tecnical
breath indicator

There were two times I'm aware of when Warren Buffett famously bought stocks - 1974 and 2008. I'm not sure when he bought in 1974 but have the impression he was early and still had large losses on his purchases at year end 1974. In 2008, he wrote an op ed published on October 16 saying he was buying stocks. Stocks fell another 25% over the next 5 months.