Generational theory, international history and current events
https://www.gdxforum.com/forum/
-vincenteThe way to encourage inflation is to have interest rates below the inflation rate. We have that. So really inflation
should be going up.
How low do we go? I say S&P to 3200-ish by mid August.
So they have now raised the 8.44% to 8.52%. So last month's 8.6% is only estimated to drop to 8.5% after 2 months. So the data is not showing a rapid drop back to 2% inflation, which most people still seem to believe.vincecate wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:08 am So I think it will be more than 8.6% of last month. I think this will surprise people.
Cleveland Fed is estimating that next month will go down to 8.44% but if July 13th info is higher (as I expect) they
will increase the next month estimate that same day.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx
There are sort of two groups of things, the necessary and the optional. On optional things you can have going out of business sales. On the necessary things I expect continued inflation.Tom Mazanec wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:22 am One thing that might keep inflation down for a bit is going into the Greater Recession. If a lot of businesses go out of business and have liquidation sales that might make a dent.
Strike Three for the Federal ReserveTo summarize, here are the five reasons to expect higher interest rates:
Inflation is out of control. Even the government’s official inflation statistics—which understate the situation—are far above current interest rates.
The federal government must issue a flood of new Treasuries to finance multi-trillion dollar deficits—which are here to stay.
Sanctions are eroding confidence in the US financial system.
Foreigners aren’t buying as many Treasuries.
The Fed is tightening.
When you connect all the dots, I think it’s clear we are starting a new long-term cycle, with rising interest rates and a bear market in bonds. That will have enormous implications for the economy and the stock market.
We will likely see incredible volatility in the financial markets as thousands of businesses that had become accustomed to easy money and artificially low interest rates go bankrupt.
If Treasury rates continue to rise, and rise precipitously, the effects on congressional budgeting will be immediate and severe.
Now the 8.44% number for 5 weeks from now has been raised to 8.6%. So the Cleveland Fed is not estimating any reduction in the CPI from last month for the 2 following months. Again, they have been low most of the last year.vincecate wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:46 pm
Now raised the 8.44% to 8.52%. So last month's 8.6% is only estimated to drop to 8.5% after 2 months. So the data is not showing a rapid drop back to 2% inflation, which most people still seem to believe.