Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Vitamin C and the Common Cold

> Like John, I also use massive quantities of Vitamin C on a daily
> basis. I take 6-8 Grams per day. That's 6000-8000mg.

> I started doing this after reading a book by Linus Pauling on
> Vitamin C. The title was "How to Live Longer and Feel Better".
> Linus Pauling was a renowned chemist, the Albert Einstein of his
> field. You can get a copy of this book for about $5.

> He pointed out all of the reasons for taking large amounts of
> Vitamin C. He also got into why the medical field doesn't want
> you to do this, and it basically came down to "they want you to
> visit the doctor, need medical care, and take over the counter
> drugs - this generates a lot of income for them".

> Pauling's father died in his 30's. Linus lived well into his 90s
> and was healthy and mentally active up until the very end.

> Since I have been taking the large doses, I don't get colds but
> maybe once every 2-3 years. I also don't get the flu every year
> like most people.

> One word of advice here - it works best as a PREVENTIVE action.
> Once you get sick, it can reduce the severity, but there I would
> recommend Zinc melts as well.

I have a Vitamin C story similar to yours.

The book that I read was "Vitamin C and the Common Cold" by Linus
Pauling.

Several weeks after reading, I started developing a bad sore throat.
It was 7 pm and I was working at IBM, and everyone else had gone home,
so I had the mainframe to myself. I decided that I might as well stay
and work as long as possible, since I knew from experience that the
next day I would be staying at home sick in bed.

So I worked until around 1 am and left. But on the way home, I
stopped off at the Philips Drugstore which, at that time, was the only
all-night drugstore in Boston. I bought a bottle of Vitamin C, drove
home, took five grams of Vitamin C and went to bed.

When I work up the next morning, I was truly shocked. I had no sore
throat, no sniffles, no nothing. I felt as good as ever.

According to the book, when you start feeling the first symptoms of a
cold -- the sniffles or a scratchy throat -- then you should
immediately take 5 grams of Vitamin C, and continue, taking about 20
grams a day for several days. So I did that, and stopped having
colds.

Then, around five years later, I decided that it would be easier to
prevent even the initial symptoms, by taking 5 grams of Vitamin C
every day. I got three colds that year. I remember the secretary
where I worked mocking me. "Hahaha. You're taking vitamin C but you
got a cold. Hahaha."

Well, anyway, I learned my lesson. For Vitamin C to work, at least
for me, you have to take very little on a daily basis, but then take
massive amounts at the first symptoms. That's worked pretty reliably
every since.

> "He pointed out all of the reasons for taking large
> amounts of Vitamin C. He also got into why the medical field
> doesn't want you to do this, and it basically came down to "they
> want you to visit the doctor, need medical care, and take over the
> counter drugs - this generates a lot of income for
> them."

Yeah, this is Linus Pauling the conspiracy theorist speaking, but I
don't buy this.

There are very good reasons why the medical field doesn't advocate
this -- it's way too complicated. You have to take a lot of vitamin C
some days, and very little other days. 99.9% of the people could
never cope with that. The FDA wouldn't like this because they simply
want to issue a minimum daily requirement. The vitamin manufacturers
don't like this because you're not taking vitamin C every day.

So this Vitamin C therapy has absolutely no constituency, except for
Pauling acolytes. And that's why the medical field doesn't advocate
this.

Having said that, I've said to many doctors over the years that I take
vitamin C for a cold, and they always ask me if it works. When I say
that it does, they don't seem surprised.

[John]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Singapore deaths

> Singapore has had no deaths, though, compared to countries that
> get winter like Japan and Korea. Possibly the best policy would
> be to hold it off as much as we can until May, then try to get
> everyone to get it and recover by September.

I'm not sure it makes sense to compare the number of deaths in
Singapore to those in South Korea and Japan. Singapore is tiny
compared to the other two, and I understand has a very authoritarian
government that can isolate people a lot more quickly.

However, the core assumption that I'm making has nothing to do with
deaths. The core assumption is that, sooner or later, everyone in
the world will be exposed to coronavirus. A large number will
develop no symptoms, or mild symptoms. But a significant number
will become seriously ill and require hospitalization, with many
deaths. Even if the rate of infection comes down a little in
warm weather (and it's far from clear that it does), it will
return in full force in the fall.

I was listening to a discussion of vaccines on the BBC today, and
an interview with a the head of a company making a new high-tech
vaccine that can be deployed more quickly than existing vaccines.
It will go through stage 1 and stage 2 tests this year. When
can it be deployed? "We hope, early next year."

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... However, the core assumption that I'm making has nothing to do with
deaths. The core assumption is that, sooner or later, everyone in
the world will be exposed to coronavirus. A large number will
develop no symptoms, or mild symptoms. But a significant number
will become seriously ill and require hospitalization, with many
deaths. Even if the rate of infection comes down a little in
warm weather (and it's far from clear that it does), it will
return in full force in the fall. ...

WARNING: This is highly probably very fake news. Use with EXTREME CAUTION!
Before use, do your own freaking research.

(Initial-->2nd or 3rd Season) Death Rates (spit-balled estimation):
0.018 --over time--> 0.016 (0.013 flu) In "the West".
0.047 --over time--> 0.038 (0.029 flu) In areas with so-so medical infrastucture.
0.114 --over time--> 0.093 (0.071 flu) In areas with poor medical infrastucture.
0.248 --over time--> 0.202 (0.154 flu) In areas with "no" medical infrastucture.

..then the rates will decrease over time (measured in "WuHu Seasons") until they approximate "the flu".

(( Based very VERY roughly on: www.worldlifeexpectancy.com ))

[John]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Free Will vs Fatalism

> I am a Jesuit educated Catholic of British origin married to a
> Portuguese Catholic. The first thing to understand about
> Catholicism is that there are hundreds of different forms or
> spiritualities. There are more orders in the Catholic Church than
> you can shake a stick at. I am an evangelical, charismatic and
> Gospel focused Catholic who regards ritual as unimportant and the
> Gospel message of charity and love as all important. Many
> Catholics regard this a peculiar, but so what we have our
> community. I do not discuss faith matters with his many Portuguese
> relatives whom have a different view. With my Portuguese relatives
> I focus on being friendly, kind and supportive. We have a lovely
> relationship and as a British colonial I am fully accepted by
> them

I'm exploring the question of how much free will we actually have,
because I believe that we have a lot less than we think we have.
Choices are made by our DNA, our culture, our families, our schools,
our religions, and so forth, and we really make no decisions at all.

You've described yourself as "a Jesuit educated Catholic, ...
evangelical, charismatic and Gospel focused."

So let me ask you a multiple-choice question. Which of the
following statements best applies to you:

1. "God directed and guided me into becoming a Jesuit Catholic,
evangelical, charismatic and Gospel focused."

2. "God played no part in my becoming a Jesuit Catholic, evangelical,
charismatic and Gospel focused, and I could have made any other choice
-- to become Protestant or even Muslim."

I'm pretty sure you'll select #1, but maybe you'll surprise me.

And my point is that you had no free will in choosing to be "a Jesuit
educated Catholic, ... evangelical, charismatic and Gospel focused,"
because someone or something else -- God -- made that decision for
you, and you were forced to accept it.

I look at my own life this way, and I look at the entire world this
way, thanks to my study of Generational Dynamics. As I wrote in the
past, I'm highly fatalistic. The online definition of this word is
"having or showing a belief that the future is determined and cannot
be changed," and I have this fatalistic attitude about myself and the
world outside of any religious framework. I think it's true of you
too. Do you disagree?

[John]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Death Rates

> (Initial-->2nd or 3rd Season) Death Rates (spit-balled estimation):
> 0.018 --over time--> 0.016 (0.013 flu) In "the West".
> 0.047 --over time--> 0.038 (0.029 flu) In areas with so-so medical infrastucture.
> 0.114 --over time--> 0.093 (0.071 flu) In areas with poor medical infrastucture.
> 0.248 --over time--> 0.202 (0.154 flu) In areas with "no" medical infrastucture.
>
> ..then the rates will decrease over time (measured in "WuHu
> Seasons") until they approximate "the flu".

I don't have the vaguest clue what this means, but I suspect you're
overlooking the point that the crisis will end early next year when a
vaccine can be deployed. Either that, or you're overlooking the point
that the core assumption is about infections, not deaths. Other than
that, it's crystal clear.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Death Rates

> (Initial-->2nd or 3rd Season) Death Rates (spit-balled estimation):
> 0.018 --over time--> 0.016 (0.013 flu) In "the West".
> 0.047 --over time--> 0.038 (0.029 flu) In areas with so-so medical infrastucture.
> 0.114 --over time--> 0.093 (0.071 flu) In areas with poor medical infrastucture.
> 0.248 --over time--> 0.202 (0.154 flu) In areas with "no" medical infrastucture.
>
> ..then the rates will decrease over time (measured in "WuHu
> Seasons") until they approximate "the flu".

I don't have the vaguest clue what this means, but I suspect you're
overlooking the point that the crisis will end early next year when a
vaccine can be deployed. Either that, or you're overlooking the point
that the core assumption is about infections, not deaths. Other than
that, it's crystal clear.

We have a "flu" vaccine too,.. well, not "too", as we don't yet have a vaccine for Covid-19.

Vaccines don't seem to "eliminate" a disease, or do they? Why do we still have "flu"?

What I presented (rather tongue in cheek) is the "death rate" for Covid-19, as spit-ball estimated by an obviously deficient analyst from data easily found in 27.3 seconds on the fabulous interwebz.

Death rates "tend" to be presented as "Deaths per 100,000 persons" within whatever group of people one chooses. Instead, I put the deaths in terms of a "death decimal multiplier", such that 0.010 represents "One Percent".

The issue is not about "infections inflicted". The issue is about "Deaths per capita".

If the disease simply gave people the hiccups (hiccoughs?) few people would be overly concerned about it's infection rate.

Eventually, the infection rate of covid-19 will be nearly 100% of the "over aged 3" population of the planet, as Covid-19 will become endemic.

The question is the severity, and the death rate is the measure of that severity, which is highly dependent on the "medical infrastructure" quality of the population under consideration, which is why I chose the population groupings that I did.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Free Will vs Fatalism

> I am a Jesuit educated Catholic of...

I'm exploring the question of how much free will we actually have,
because I believe that we have a lot less than we think we have. ...

My answer to that would be: "Enough".

The overwhelming majority of decisions made by "those things with free will" are based on the "law" of "path of least resistance".

..but "enough" behavior is based on free will to disallow (invalidate) the "theory" (belief) that we "free will possessing things" are absolved of any responsibility for our actions.

Claiming utter absolution without due contrition is simply "not the way the world works".


..lovely bunch of assertions, there, from me, yeah!? <chuckle!> Can't PROVE a damn thing, but that's not my job. My job is to merely make what I believe "attractive". People can decide which way to turn based on... their own free will.

..or "chosen" fate.

[John]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Flu vaccine

> We have a "flu" vaccine too,.. well, not "too", as we don't yet
> have a vaccine for Covid-19.

> Vaccines don't seem to "eliminate" a disease, or do they? Why do
> we still have "flu"?

The flu changes every year, so there's a new flu vaccine every year,
though work is being done on a "universal" flu vaccine. If the
Covid-19 vaccine does not work with Covid-21, then the crisis will
continue a lot longer.

When a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available, the first thing they'll do
is give it to health care givers, since they're on the front lines. A
vaccine will make contact tracing a lot more effective. Today, when
contact tracing is done for a Covid-19 patient, then the contacts will
be isolated or quarantined if they show symptoms, but if there are no
symptoms then nothing can be done.

But if a vaccine is available, then contact tracing becomes a lot more
effective, since the vaccine can be given even to asymptomatic people.

The experience of Ebola in eastern DRC is very educational. The Ebola
epidemic in west Africa in 2014-16 was disastrous, though it finally
burnt itself out. But by 2018 a vaccine was available, and that same
vaccine works with the strain of Ebola in eastern DRC.

What's amazing about the DRC situation is that it's an active war
zone, with ethnic groups attacking and killing each other -- and
sometimes attacking and killing medical NGOs -- on a daily basis. But
they gave the vaccine to vulnerable people in Uganda, so Ebola hasn't
spread there. And they've used the vaccine in conjunction with
contact tracing very effectively in eastern DRC, so they've done a
great job in preventing it from repeating the 2014-16 disaster.

So once a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available, hopefully early next
year, the Covid-19 pandemic will be controlled within a few weeks in
most developed countries, and within a few months in less developed
countries.

[Navigator]

I'm exploring the question of how much free will we actually have,
because I believe that we have a lot less than we think we have.
Choices are made by our DNA, our culture, our families, our schools,
our religions, and so forth, and we really make no decisions at all.

I believe that we may have certain pre-dispositions to do something. Or even a strong urge to do something.

But these pre-dispositions or urges do not FORCE us to do something. In the end our actions are our choice.

Our families or our schools might have taught us certain values or dogmas, but it is up to us whether or not to accept them and act upon them. Changing our minds and accepting or rejecting teachings and values/dogmas is possible. It is, unfortunately, not all that common.

NO-ONE can cause the muscles in your body to move but you.

[Navigator]

I believe that truth and answers are available. But one does have to study and search and even ask God for guidance and direction.

And, carrying on from the last post, one has to be willing to question and potentially to change. This takes humility and the willingness to accept and act upon the answers that are provided.

I believe that the answers to the big questions are available. Those big questions being:
Where did I come from?
Why am I here on earth?
What am I supposed to do while here?
What will happen to me (and those I love) when I (or they) die?