Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

richard5za wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:19 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 12:05 pm

aeden wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:54 am https://johngaltfla.com/economics/the-s ... ay-powell/

The smart money knows better.

aeden wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 6:07 am H would be the only one to trend the actual feedback loops.

Interesting link. I covered all shorts and have no position. I'm not able to figure this out. My hunch is that Powell is trying to talk inflation down but not really doing much. The Fed has been moving very slowly in reducing its balance sheet.

A thought I had this morning is about how the Fed could try to walk the line I alluded to earlier. Powell implied some time ago that he would like inflation to run a little hotter than 2 percent. It could be that he would like inflation to increase very gradually over time. That may be what they figured would buy the most time as he tries to straddle the line between debt deflation and inflation.

I remain of the opinion that the recession, bear market scenario will play out, whether Powell soft shoe shuffles or not. The timing is the unpredictable part

https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/stat ... 4219981824

He's not one of the best, but he's accurate enough that people ask Santoli for this. Not the reason I covered but addresses your comment as to one person's opinion as to possible timing of the recession and why he believes so.

My strategy, if I choose to do anything, would be to determine what opinions exist and to try to figure out when those who believe in the deferred recession scenario will do enough buying to drive the market higher and how much.

S&P 500 down 1.5% apparently on reports that Taiwan fired at China drone

Descending wedge breakout should see a relief rally and end of (1) of ((3)). We would need to go below 3945.86 to invalidate any bullish elliott wave count so I don't believe we do as elliott wave seems to enjoy keeping us second guessing the possibilities. CPI data is out on Sept 13 so I could see the relief rally extending to then and based on the print could go either way into the bullish or bearish elliott wave count.

No Powell Pivot, So the Bear is Back!
Posted August 29, 2022 By David Haggith
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/no- ... r-is-back/

Hig, as an addition to my PM, I broke my general rule of never posting margin when a position is going against me, but I have been so bearish, I margined through the high.

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:07 am

Interesting link. I covered all shorts and have no position. I'm not able to figure this out. My hunch is that Powell is trying to talk inflation down but not really doing much. The Fed has been moving very slowly in reducing its balance sheet.

A thought I had this morning is about how the Fed could try to walk the line I alluded to earlier. Powell implied some time ago that he would like inflation to run a little hotter than 2 percent. It could be that he would like inflation to increase very gradually over time. That may be what they figured would buy the most time as he tries to straddle the line between debt deflation and inflation.

I remain of the opinion that the recession, bear market scenario will play out, whether Powell soft shoe shuffles or not. The timing is the unpredictable part
[/quote]

https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/stat ... 4219981824

He's not one of the best, but he's accurate enough that people ask Santoli for this. Not the reason I covered but addresses your comment as to one person's opinion as to possible timing of the recession and why he believes so.

My strategy, if I choose to do anything, would be to determine what opinions exist and to try to figure out when those who believe in the deferred recession scenario will do enough buying to drive the market higher and how much.
[/quote]

September is seasonally a weak month for stocks, and there is a gap at 3796 on S&P 500. I am a betting bear for the present. A move to 3460 is also quite possible. However, if there is severe weakness in September with or without a waterfall crash there could be some delicious short term pickings on a rebound

I understand October is the month for waterfall crashes.

Tom Mazanec wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 10:26 am I understand October is the month for waterfall crashes.

Historically the big crashes have happened inb October

Monday Sep 5th is Labor Day. So we have a 3 day weekend coming up. Increased chance of big down day on Tuesday, I think.

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:07 am

richard5za wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:19 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 12:05 pm I covered all shorts and have no position. I'm not able to figure this out. My hunch is that Powell is trying to talk inflation down but not really doing much. The Fed has been moving very slowly in reducing its balance sheet.

A thought I had this morning is about how the Fed could try to walk the line I alluded to earlier. Powell implied some time ago that he would like inflation to run a little hotter than 2 percent. It could be that he would like inflation to increase very gradually over time. That may be what they figured would buy the most time as he tries to straddle the line between debt deflation and inflation.

I remain of the opinion that the recession, bear market scenario will play out, whether Powell soft shoe shuffles or not. The timing is the unpredictable part

https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/stat ... 4219981824

He's not one of the best, but he's accurate enough that people ask Santoli for this. Not the reason I covered but addresses your comment as to one person's opinion as to possible timing of the recession and why he believes so.

My strategy, if I choose to do anything, would be to determine what opinions exist and to try to figure out when those who believe in the deferred recession scenario will do enough buying to drive the market higher and how much.

If a bounce started from 3900, I don't believe the market will go over 4200. A blistering rally and a short into the close tomorrow would be nice if I can get it.

Phong Tran wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:04 am Descending wedge breakout should see a relief rally and end of (1) of ((3)).

I agree with your count. 3 of 3 likely on deck.