Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus outlook becomes more serious

News coverage of the coronavirus emergency is becoming a lot more
serious. I've even heard one analyst warn that within a few months US
hospitals will be overwhelmed with hundreds of thousands of seriously
ill Covid-19 patients.

Here are some news items:

• The number of US cases exceeds 1,000, eight times more than a
  week earlier, with 31 deaths.
• Seattle Washington is banning events with more than 250
  people.
• The number of cases in Massachusetts is 92, doubling in one
  day.
• Chancellor Angela Merkel said 60%-70% of Germans, 58 million
  people, will eventually become infected.
• More and more schools and businesses are closing, or asking people
  to work from home.
• The number of layoffs is growing.
• Iran is waking up to the disaster the country is facing.

Covid-19 is spreading rapidly across Europe and North America, with
the number of cases growing exponentially with a high coefficient, and
people are beginning to understand that this emergency is extremely
serious.

The stock market is going to keep falling. However, we haven't yet
seen a full scale disorderly panic with forced selling. The way
things are going, that could happen any time.

The point is that the public mood is rapidly changing in numerous
countries. When the public mood starts changing rapidly, anything can
happen, including a panic and even a war.

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Growing crisis between Greece and Turkey

> John, in addition to China, there are two other regions that I
> think could explode this year because of coronavirus: The Balkans
> and the Middle East.

> In the Balkans, Greece and Turkey are moving dangerously close to
> war because of the migrant crisis at their border. Greece has
> deployed its military to all Turkish border outposts, and there
> have been reports of live ammunition being fired. Meanwhile, the
> Turkish military is assisting the migrants across the border and
> even arming them with tear gas canisters to use against Greek
> soldiers. It has also deployed drones to the border and is pushing
> back migrants trying to cross back into Turkey. Erdogan's
> government has been engaging in increasingly belligerent rhetoric
> towards not only Greece, but the entire continent of Europe, in
> response to this crisis. It could only be a matter of time before
> tensions escalate into a full-blown border conflict.

> Right now, there are no confirmed cases of coronavirus in
> Turkey. But the border crisis has already escalated to this point
> without it. If/when the virus strikes Turkey, it likely
> will make the crisis much worse, as Turkey would then have a much
> greater incentive to remove the migrants from its
> territory.

I've written about this a number of times in relation to the crisis in
Idlib, Syria, but as you point out, then tension between Turkey and
Greece, which is millennia old, is getting worse.

Just today, Turkey's Erdogan referred to the Greeks as Nazis:

> "There is no difference with what the Nazis did and
> the images from the border with Greece. To open fire, fire tear
> gas and use boiling water on innocent people whose only aim is to
> save their lives and build a better future for their children is
> barbaric in the true meaning of the word."

Erdogan is really pissed off that the EU has repeatedly refused to
honor its commitments to Turkey, and so Turkey is now abandoning its
commitments to Greece and the EU.

• Thousands of migrants in Turkey have crowded along the border
  with Greece since the end of February.

-- With Nazi reference, Turkey's Erdogan escalates dispute with Greece
over migrants
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eu-greece ... -1.5493516
(AP, 11-Mar-2020)

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Growing between Russia and Saudi Arabia

> As for the Middle East, the coronavirus played a central role in
> the breakdown in negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia over
> oil production. Saudi Arabia has responded by dramatically
> increasing its production, causing oil prices to plummet. This has
> created a lose-lose situation for Saudi Arabia. With the virus
> having crippled the global travel industry, global demand for oil
> will fall over the next few months. Saudi Arabia will then be
> stuck with an extremely large oil supply that's not being bought,
> which will drive prices down further. There is zero doubt that
> Saudi Arabia will suffer severe economic losses as a consequence
> of this decision. But that's not the end of it. Saudi Arabia's
> economy was already fragile to begin with, due to the previous oil
> price collapses of 2014-15, and massive debts incurred by its
> proxy wars against Iran. I've already mentioned on multiple
> occasions that the IMF has projected a Saudi bankruptcy by this
> year. And look where we are. The coronavirus may well be the event
> that sparks this bankruptcy.

> A Saudi bankruptcy would cause a severe disruption of the balance
> of power in the Middle East, likely severe enough to spark a major
> war.

I've heard numerous analysts discuss this situation between Russia
and Saudi Arabia. Some of them say that Russia has the advantage,
others say that the Saudis have the advantage. The only thing that
everyone seems to agree with is that both Russia and Saudi Arabia
want to screw the US shale oil producers, and they seem to be doing
that successfully.

The news today is that both Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
(UAE) are going to substantially produce oil production, in order to
force Russia to come back to the bargaining table, and rejoin the
OPEC+ (= OPEC + Russia). Many people doubt that will work.

Oil prices have been crashing since the beginning of March,
as shown by the following chart:

• Oil prices have been crashing since the beginning of March

-- Oil War Escalates Again After Saudi and U.A.E. Promise Flood of
Crude
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-war- ... 25389.html
(BB, 11-Mar-2020)

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Bats

> I was looking at an article about the Marburg virus. It has been
> discovered in bats in west Africa.

> How do you quarantine bats?

What’s the first thing bats learn at school?
The alpha-bat.

What do you get if you cross a computer with a vampire bat?
Love at first byte.

What do you call a bat in a belfry?
A dingbat.

Why do vampire bats drink blood?
Because coffee keeps them awake at night.

How does a girl vampire flirt?
She bats her eyes.

What did the bat say to the vampire?
“You suck”.

• The Bat Mobile

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... [im g]http://invisibules.org/wp-content/uploa ... 7b28e2.png[/img]

• The Bat Mobile

Boo doom chshshshshsh....!
<< rimshot >>

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... The only thing that everyone seems to agree with is that both Russia and Saudi Arabia want to screw the US shale oil producers, and they seem to be doing that successfully. ...

Isn't the obvious thing for the US to do being to pay the shale oil companies a "stay alive" rate, while buying up a shitload of this "cheap overseas oil" and stashing it into the strategic reserve, until one (or both) of the "race to the bottom" oil producers can't sustain their production rates any longer?

Why would we NOT save our production and reserve capability?

Why would we buy expensive oil ("ours") when we could buy cheap oil ("theirs")?

I'm sure I'm missing something, but it's probably just bureaucratic nonsense and BS.

So, what am I missing?

[Guest]

Italian coronavirus death toll climbs by 196 to 827 in 24 hours as country's top doctors say intensive care units should stop treating the elderly https://t.co/EzKIIU4tyf

Daily Mail Online Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) March 11, 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... mailonline

In another development top doctors suggested that rather than admit patients on a 'first come first served' basis, hospitals should swap to 'catastrophe medicine' guidelines - typically used in war zones and during natural disasters - where those with the greatest chance of survival are given priority.

If a limit on beds is implemented it could mean elderly patients with no signs of coronavirus being turfed off ICU wards to make space for younger patients who have longer left to live.

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Buying oil

> Isn't the obvious thing for the US to do being to pay the shale
> oil companies a "stay alive" rate, while buying up a shitload of
> this "cheap overseas oil" and stashing it into the strategic
> reserve, until one (or both) of the "race to the bottom" oil
> producers can't sustain their production rates any longer?

> Why would we NOT save our production and reserve capability?

> Why would we buy expensive oil ("ours") when we could buy cheap
> oil ("theirs")?

> I'm sure I'm missing something, but it's probably just
> bureaucratic nonsense and BS.

> So, what am I missing?

Well, here are some things that you're missing:

• We have a free market economy. We sometimes bail out
  specific companies (like GM), but generally we don't bail out all
  companies in an entire industry.
• Many of the fracking companies are "malinvestments," and bailing
  them out would be throwing good money after bad. Remember
  Solyndra?
• In the US-China trade wars, one of the Chinese practices that
  we're saying must end is the government subsidizing entire industries,
  in order to undercut American manufacturers and producers. So we
  don't want to do what we're criticizing China for.

On the other hand, this is an emergency situation, and it may be
necessary to take emergency actions.

However, don't be surprised if China retaliates.

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: NBA Season

The remainder of the NBA season has been suspended / canceled, because
one player tested positive for coronavirus.

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Investor sentiment swings from complacency to panic

> “The ferocity of the sell-off reflects a massive swing
> in investor sentiment from complacency to panic,” said Paul
> O’Connor, head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson
> Investors. “Whereas just a few weeks ago, investors were
> anticipating a v-shaped recovery in global growth, they are now
> pricing in a high probability of a global recession.”

> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rkets-wrap

This is the change in mood that I was referring to when I wrote
earlier today: "The point is that the public mood is rapidly changing
in numerous countries. When the public mood starts changing rapidly,
anything can happen, including a panic and even a war."