Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

My associate is getting smoked in his 60/40 allocation. Told him to get out, but hell no.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV
Employment Level.

Now that they've managed to produce runaway inflation - which was their goal in the first place - the Fed is taking Mises' first approach to heart, halting asset purchases and artificial stimulus, raising interest rates to slow "growth", though the government still seems to be on the wrong page, evidenced by the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act last month, a $750 billion boondoggle of spending and taxing, much of it ill-advised, all of it unnecessary.
Worse yet, Biden held an event praising the bill on Tuesday, just as markets were tanking over the red-hit CPI reading from August.
The Fed has chosen to sacrifice the economy over the currency, for now, though eventually, they'll kill both.

https://dtmagazine.com/index.shtml

https://mises.org/library/human-action-0

https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/ ... ccess_etds Typical metric on display.

Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:34 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:42 pm

aeden wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:42 pm As indicated the face value drop off TREASURY BONDS 7.62% 11/15/2022

I had mentioned buying a 1 year bill last week. I sold it today at a loss taking my account 100% to cash. Since it was a bill and it was held a few days the loss wasn't much but the risk is that this could be the beginning of a bigger spike in interest rates.

When does the liquidity crisis coming, if you had to guess, Higs?

My guess is there's more of a solvency crisis coming. Meaning, hardly a profitable company or governmental entity in sight whether they throw more money at it or not. I don't think that comes this year. Maybe next year or the year after.

Back in 2008 bill rates went negative. I had some and sold them. The word was everyone wanted to show they had "good collateral" on their balance sheets at quarter end. I don't think that will happen this time.

I am in the same camp H since the diet they worship is there are
no universals, just the blind preferences of one‘s time.
Even when three options are clear they did care less what was inside.

https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/ ... ccess_etds

As we focus ahead as indicated the sweeps will include.

Logistics Support Analysis Process of assets under mangement.

FMEA / FMECA Overview
In general, Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMEA / FMECA) requires the identification of the following basic information:
•Item(s)
•Function(s)
•Failure(s)
•Effect(s) of Failure
•Cause(s) of Failure
•Current Control(s)
•Recommended Action(s)
•Plus other relevant details - Most analyses of this type also include some method to assess the risk associated with the issues identified during the analysis and to prioritize corrective actions. Two common methods include:
•Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)
•Criticality Analysis (FMEA with Criticality Analysis = FMECA)

Final exam question. Why.
Answer, because.

Europe can thank the Democrats and the Biden administration for their war against crushing the US energy industry. Imbeciles.

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:28 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:34 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:42 pm

I had mentioned buying a 1 year bill last week. I sold it today at a loss taking my account 100% to cash. Since it was a bill and it was held a few days the loss wasn't much but the risk is that this could be the beginning of a bigger spike in interest rates.

When does the liquidity crisis coming, if you had to guess, Higs?

My guess is there's more of a solvency crisis coming. Meaning, hardly a profitable company or governmental entity in sight whether they throw more money at it or not. I don't think that comes this year. Maybe next year or the year after.

Back in 2008 bill rates went negative. I had some and sold them. The word was everyone wanted to show they had "good collateral" on their balance sheets at quarter end. I don't think that will happen this time.

Downward revisions to July retail sales data and weakness in the control group weighed on growth in Q3 with weak import and export prices, as well as disappointing industrial production and capacity utilization numbers also dragging down estimates.
The Atlanta Fed breaks down the driver of the reduction - and the fact the government is all that's left to keep the dream alive... as they are supposed to be fighting inflation: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/atl ... n-weakness

The speculation was seen as revisions on the lower <95 models as weighting of the >5
We warned to include any less than 5 PE paying a dividend to weather the head winds seen from the
936 cluster data studies assumptions also we note here and some ignored.

We left it here as the >97.5 to be polite on issues.

lightswitch
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... inter.html
U.S. oil production growth would likely disappoint both this year and next.

image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs6pIpCE00Y

tone

Texas border town of El Paso, where nearly 1,000 migrants have been released to sleep on the streets amid a surge of illegal crossings that is overwhelming Border Patrol facilities.
https://kvia.com/top-stories/2022/09/13 ... d-showers/

Sociopaths are turning on each other now.

Forward P/E ratio of 6.19 is being beaten senseless.
Industry average Forward P/E of 9.06 getting crushed.
Billionaire on TV whining about cracks.
Bitching about links.

We see crime, they see justice.
We see an epidemic of drug addiction, they see freedom to choose.
We see rampant waste of social resources on teeming immigrants,
they see strength in diversity.
We see crippling taxes, they see government success.

The effective tax rate has trapped them to the extent they cannot sell or even leave the carnage.
Effective Tax Rate = Total Tax ÷ Taxable Income

Remember, it's not a "recession", it's a "special economic operation" tylers

https://timryan.house.gov/media/press-r ... ng-reforms
A start as limit to stupidly holding up production needed to even start moving to the other sector for renewals.

Corn reports and soy reports are accurate and essential materials is commodity flows to sectors vital.
The nuts will stab even their own to prove the point to starve in place.


...derisking was the name of the game and the early action had the stench of liquidation across many markets...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-lov ... on-morning

On Tuesday, September 13th, the dam broke and the trap for the bulls slammed shut. The markets suffered their worst plunge since the dark days of COVID in June 2020.
Wall Street did a good job luring inexperienced investors into the market to take unwanted inventory off of the hands of their firms.

H saved alot of people alot of pain.

“We see nothing that would say that a bottom in the bear market has been made.”

The bear penanat is real as it gets for now. As it said clearly wait for the fog to clear.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-09- ... -beginning
The old bulls will walk since the young Bulls got one only down in the valley.