Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

m/m 0.4%
y/y 8.2%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Of stocks, bonds, yen, only the yen had a sudden change in the first 2 minutes.
In 5 or 6 minutes bonds and stocks moved.
Was not watching Bitcoin, but it moved too.
It may just be the sites that I use to watch them that add the delay.
The 10-year is back above 4%.
Then at 9:01 the 30-year passed 4%. Last done in 2011 I think.


US CPI YoY Actual 8.2% (Forecast 8.1%, Previous 8.3%)

US CPI MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1%)

US Core CPI MoM Actual 0.6% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.6%)

US Core CPI YoY Actual 6.6% (Forecast 6.5%, Previous 6.3%)

I never thought 3% interest rates would cure 8.2% inflation. Think others are slowly coming around...

vincecate wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:31 am m/m 0.4%
y/y 8.2%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Of stocks, bonds, yen, only the yen had a sudden change in the first 2 minutes. :-)
In 5 or 6 minutes bonds and stocks moved.
Was not watching Bitcoin, but it moved too.
It may just be the sites that I use to watch them that add the delay.
The 10-year is back above 4%.

I had a profitable scalp; you need a real time trading platform since a few seconds can mean a fair amount of money. I watch the price action, not the news and trade in the direction of the action, and then take profits as soon as the direction momentum slows

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 8:19 pm I covered shorts today and will look for another place to get short. I see a minor possibility the market may challenge Richard's pivot of 3760 but not quite get there.

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:32 pm It's interesting to me that most of the 8 traders I follow closely (mentioned before) seem very anxious to buy a low soon or already have, and they have no hesitation to call out where they think that low will be (3200 and up). Only 2 of the 8 traders I follow are both bearish and not calling out a target for a price low. Since this crew is mostly right, one possible scenario I see is that the market actually does bottom soon, rallies enough to make the buyers appear correct, then crashes when the coming low is taken out, probably after this month.

I'm warning up in the bearpen getting ready to go short. After seeing today's activity, it seems more likely the crash, if it happens, will happen this month.

Starting to go short near 3670 now. Slowly.

Hig, beware, my boat is loaded heaviest I've ever been

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:32 pm Starting to go short near 3670 now. Slowly.

Out of shorts at 3605. I think it's going to crash next week but will take it one step at a time.

It seems S&P500 is following 2008 rather well but in 2008 the Fed rescued the market, which I don't think happens in 2022.
So I think soon these graphs will diverge.

They are waiting for a break in things. This is part of the plan.

Everyone here knows it, and it will happen.

I'm in heavy cash. BTC and XMR for the win, long term.

U of Michigan 1y fwd Inflation Expectations were 4.7% last month, were expected to be 4.6%, but really came out at 5.1%

The Fed thinks expectations are an important causal factor for inflation (really I am not making this up) so this will bother them.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... pectations

The Scion Asset Management boss also bet against Wood. Burry's fund held bearish put options against ARKK stock and against the fund's largest holding, Tesla, in the second quarter of 2021.

Wood responded to Burry's wager by suggesting he didn't understand the fundamentals of her favorite tech stocks, so he failed to recognize their rich growth potential or attractive valuations.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ks-2022-10

Anybody who would suggest Michael Burry "didn't understand" something about investing is really, really arrogant. I might disagree with him from time to time, but would never suggest Burry "didn't understand" something as the reason for the disagreement. And if I disagreed with him, it's most likely me who "didn't understand" and needs to search harder for the reasons I am wrong.

Meanwhile, Scion’s Q2 13F filing showed that the fund had only about $3.3 million invested in the market in one single stock, reflecting Burry’s previously bearish sentiment. That single stock is Geo Group (NYSE:GEO), a real estate investment trust (or REIT) that focuses on prison properties.

https://investorplace.com/2022/10/why-m ... ar-market/