Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

Executives at leading hedge fund Elliott Management said we are on the path to hyperinflation.
I think the hyperinflation idea is getting less fringe every month.


https://archive.ph/QS84y

Why do you think it took people over 2 years to finally (and still not everyone) see what we've been talking about? Why are people so bad at seeing the obvious?

[Cool Breeze]

The point of the errors comment of yours, which is good, goes back to my point of making the BIG error. Calling BTC a ponzi and fake, a trap, a dupe, etc. is a BIG categorical error, one that shows you that someone else has major chinks in their thinking armour. I wouldn't say this if all you said (or whomever) was, "BTC is too unknown, too speculative for me, I don't know enough about it, I'm not touching it." That's the classic hubris and ignorance paradigm that most legacy people follow. It's not enough for them to just say, I don't know it, I'm not touching it - it's too risky for me - they disqualify it entirely and make fun of other people. Who know more than they do. Which is the point here.

That was pretty much my opinion. I do not know if Bitcoin is the Next Big Thing. I do not know if it is the Scam of the Century. I have only an ECON 101 that is almost half a century old to help me decide. And I do not have a gambling personality.

And this proves the fact that someone like me should be trusted more than most, because it's not about getting everything "right" it's about not having really detrimental flaws or emotion in your thinking that disable large scale analysis. Really big categorical errors in thinking. If you show that you have these big categorical errors, it is hard for me to trust you, since you have shown you get really big things wrong, and what's more, even when confronted with this, only Higgie has turned around (which shows he has flexible and solid thinking) unlike many others.

[Cool Breeze]

I don't think any known scam (defrauding investors) lasted 13 years before.

This was the proof, the nail in the coffin, the ultimate evidence that all the criticisms in the real of (ponzi) tulip mania, etc were totally stupid for any right minded person. I put that graph up and it showed the historical references the retards referred to lasted 2, maybe 3 years, tops. Clearly this is something different and it always was, because it is something very valuable, especially for the time period we are in (dishonest fiat as you say, late stage discovery of scam financial systems). In the old system, you could have a guy locally like Madoff with multi year runs doing what he does, but that is far easier to pull up because it doesn't have any openness, necessarily or discovery like BTC does (world market, world players, all financials and constant attention).

I find it amazing looking back how obvious all of this is and was, and yet it demonstrates how few people really are able to critically think and/or get past emotions, which is something I've really been bludgeoned with since covid times.

[richard5za]

This makes deflation caused by the inevitable future recession more likely; in my opinion most probable

Again, you mean disinflation. And that then begs the question, what exactly is slowing in its increasing (still) price?

Inflation can be positive or negative. In economic theory the commonly used term for negative inflation is deflation
The commonly understood way to bring inflation down is to slow down the economy, bring growth rates down, even negative growth rates, as necessary. This is done by increasing interest rates. If the recession is severe it is not uncommon for inflation to become negative, termed deflation.
Yesterday the Bank of England announced that the UK had entered recession. It is anticipated that this will be a long recession lasting until mid 2024
Other countries are expected to enter recession, in fact the whole globe will probably enter recession including USA.
So now lets come back to John's forecast. He forecast deflation based upon generational theory. I am saying that looks like a very good call in current circumstances

[richard5za]

Fascinating market this month.
This is my reading as of now:
As I write this US 500 futures are at 3746, S&P 500 closed at 3720 last night.

On the possible downside 3650 is the 61.8 retracement. If this doesn't hold then 3500 is possible or even lower

On the upside if 3760 is regained then 3900 is possible, even 4020

I am in cash on the sidelines at present waiting to see what happens

[richard5za]

And this proves the fact that someone like me should be trusted more than most,

Goodness me!! Oh dear.

[richard5za]

Executives at leading hedge fund Elliott Management said we are on the path to hyperinflation.
I think the hyperinflation idea is getting less fringe every month.


https://archive.ph/QS84y

Yes. Powell seems to be understanding this now. Hence the hawkish tones and statements.

One of the debates is whether the Fed can fix it? I think you'll find the Western World committed to fixing matters, but what economic disasters can this bring? A global debt crisis with the world in another great depression? Early days yet so we watch and wait

[vincecate]

One of the debates is whether the Fed can fix it? I think you'll find the Western World committed to fixing matters, but what economic disasters can this bring? A global debt crisis with the world in another great depression? Early days yet so we watch and wait

Imagine Powell gets to 8% or 12% interest rate. The politicians would either have to cut way back in spending as interest expenses shoot up, or replace Powell with someone who will print faster. In all previous such situations the politicians took control of the central bank somehow. It can be with the weight of public opinion, it can be by threatening to replace the people at the central bank, it can be by changing the law (maybe a 3rd mandate to keep interest rates under 5%), maybe "nationalizing the private bank that is causing a terrible recession and millions to lose their jobs", or really replacing people. But in all the cases I looked at the politicians get control of the money printing, then hyperinflation is assured. Remember that the politicians control the laws and tell the police and armed forces what to do, a guy at a private bank can not really stand up to that when things get really serious. They will get really serious.

[richard5za]

One of the debates is whether the Fed can fix it? I think you'll find the Western World committed to fixing matters, but what economic disasters can this bring? A global debt crisis with the world in another great depression? Early days yet so we watch and wait

Imagine Powell gets to 8% or 12% interest rate. The politicians would either have to cut way back in spending as interest expenses shoot up, or replace Powell with someone who will print faster. In all previous such situations the politicians took control of the central bank somehow. It can be with the weight of public opinion, it can be by threatening to replace the people at the central bank, it can be by changing the law (maybe a 3rd mandate to keep interest rates under 5%), maybe "nationalizing the private bank that is causing a terrible recession and millions to lose their jobs", or really replacing people. But in all the cases I looked at the politicians get control of the money printing, then hyperinflation is assured. Remember that the politicians control the laws and tell the police and armed forces what to do, a guy at a private bank can not really stand up to that when things get really serious. They will get really serious.

I am not saying that you are wrong because you may be right that the politicians take control and make disasterous economic decisions. That will probably result in wars and John's generational forecasts will come to pass in a very serious way.
I am hoping for better decision making

[vincecate]

I am not saying that you are wrong because you may be right that the politicians take control and make disasterous economic decisions. That will probably result in wars and John's generational forecasts will come to pass in a very serious way.
I am hoping for better decision making

Here is AOC saying that inflation is not because of government policy, just wall street decisions;
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hfu_jlpx4SM

Biden also has said something along the lines of "it is a myth that government spending causes
inflation, it is not true". I can't find the exact words or a link but he does not accept any fault
for inflation.

The government is not even admitting that spending (more exactly deficit spending) is a problem. The first step to solving a problem is admitting you have a problem. They are not at step one. I see no reason to hope for better decision making from government.