Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index
Reference Month Release Date Release Time
October 2022 Nov. 10, 2022 08:30 AM
November 2022 Dec. 13, 2022 08:30 AM
December 2022 Jan. 12, 2023 08:30 AM
January 2023 Feb. 14, 2023 08:30 AM
February 2023 Mar. 14, 2023 08:30 AM
March 2023 Apr. 12, 2023 08:30 AM
April 2023 May 10, 2023 08:30 AM
May 2023 Jun. 13, 2023 08:30 AM
June 2023 Jul. 12, 2023 08:30 AM
July 2023 Aug. 10, 2023 08:30 AM
August 2023 Sep. 13, 2023 08:30 AM
September 2023 Oct. 12, 2023 08:30 AM
October 2023 Nov. 14, 2023 08:30 AM
November 2023 Dec. 12, 2023 08:30 AM

https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price Index
Reference Month Release Date Release Time
October 2022 Nov. 15, 2022 08:30 AM
November 2022 Dec. 09, 2022 08:30 AM
December 2022 Jan. 18, 2023 08:30 AM
January 2023 Feb. 16, 2023 08:30 AM
February 2023 Mar. 15, 2023 08:30 AM
March 2023 Apr. 13, 2023 08:30 AM
April 2023 May 11, 2023 08:30 AM
May 2023 Jun. 14, 2023 08:30 AM
June 2023 Jul. 13, 2023 08:30 AM
July 2023 Aug. 11, 2023 08:30 AM
August 2023 Sep. 14, 2023 08:30 AM
September 2023 Oct. 11, 2023 08:30 AM
October 2023 Nov. 15, 2023 08:30 AM
November 2023 Dec. 13, 2023 08:30 AM

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven ... 20624a.htm
The Federal Open Market Committee on Friday announced its tentative meeting schedule for 2023:
January 31-February 1 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
March 21-22 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
May 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
June 13-14 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
July 25-26 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
September 19-20 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
October 31-November 1 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
December 12-13 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
January 30-31, 2024 (Tuesday-Wednesday)

The TLT ETF (Treasuries Long Term) dropped 1.68% today. When bonds are paying 4% per year but can drop 1.68% in a day, you got to wonder about the risk/reward ratio.

Biden is using up the strategic petroleum reserve to try to keep oil/gas prices down through midterms.
After that prices will go up, maybe by a lot. Already today Brent oil was $98.57
Keeping gas down was helping to keep CPI down.
If/when that reverses, the CPI numbers will get worse.

Cool,
Here's some good news:
On 4 November Bitcoin, Platinum and Gold all have an upwards break out from their current price trends. So lets hope that this is not a false break out and that your investment in Bitcoin grows a bit

vincecate wrote: Fri Nov 04, 2022 5:44 pm Biden is using up the strategic petroleum reserve to try to keep oil/gas prices down through midterms.
After that prices will go up, maybe by a lot. Already today Brent oil was $98.57
Keeping gas down was helping to keep CPI down.
If/when that reverses, the CPI numbers will get worse.

Politicians always blame someone else (in response to your previous post)
I don't think there is any economic theory on just how much economic recession to create in order to bring inflation down by a set or target amount. I think it is one of those we'll know it when we see it things. So the potential for error is large. And it always takes a long time especially when you've gotten yourself on the wrong side of the line through massive money printing.

richard5za wrote: Fri Nov 04, 2022 6:03 am Inflation can be positive or negative. In economic theory the commonly used term for negative inflation is deflation
The commonly understood way to bring inflation down is to slow down the economy, bring growth rates down, even negative growth rates, as necessary. This is done by increasing interest rates. If the recession is severe it is not uncommon for inflation to become negative, termed deflation.
Yesterday the Bank of England announced that the UK had entered recession. It is anticipated that this will be a long recession lasting until mid 2024
Other countries are expected to enter recession, in fact the whole globe will probably enter recession including USA.
So now lets come back to John's forecast. He forecast deflation based upon generational theory. I am saying that looks like a very good call in current circumstances

Deflation, if using pricing and not the supply of money (so let's put that aside for a second), means a decrease in prices. It does not mean a slowing rate of increasing prices. That's what is happening. Prices are still increasing! How many times do we have to say this?

Also, the "commonly understood" way to bring down inflation is silly and propaganda. Think of how dumb it is to destroy the economy just to get prices to not increase as fast. LOL!

Again, please tell me what you and John are really saying. And use the appropriate language. Note also that inflation has caused such a problem, even if prices start to go down, it will have been what I described. Not John, who was wrong about inflation being the problem, as he said it was transitory and would go down, and it didn't. For a long, long time (and still is persistent).

richard5za wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2022 3:16 am Cool,
Here's some good news:
On 4 November Bitcoin, Platinum and Gold all have an upwards break out from their current price trends. So lets hope that this is not a false break out and that your investment in Bitcoin grows a bit

My thesis is the same, but I personally believe it is a false breakout because something is going to break in the next 4-5 months, which will send markets and even BTC lower.

vincecate wrote: Fri Nov 04, 2022 4:08 pm The TLT ETF (Treasuries Long Term) dropped 1.68% today. When bonds are paying 4% per year but can drop 1.68% in a day, you got to wonder about the risk/reward ratio.

Also, it is funny how the "BTC is volatile" crowd is silent as this, totally unheard of bond volatility, is rampant.

When the 50 crosses down over the 100 it was bad the last two times (around 50% drop).

Cool Breeze wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:46 am

richard5za wrote: Fri Nov 04, 2022 6:03 am Inflation can be positive or negative. In economic theory the commonly used term for negative inflation is deflation
The commonly understood way to bring inflation down is to slow down the economy, bring growth rates down, even negative growth rates, as necessary. This is done by increasing interest rates. If the recession is severe it is not uncommon for inflation to become negative, termed deflation.
Yesterday the Bank of England announced that the UK had entered recession. It is anticipated that this will be a long recession lasting until mid 2024
Other countries are expected to enter recession, in fact the whole globe will probably enter recession including USA.
So now lets come back to John's forecast. He forecast deflation based upon generational theory. I am saying that looks like a very good call in current circumstances

Deflation, if using pricing and not the supply of money (so let's put that aside for a second), means a decrease in prices. It does not mean a slowing rate of increasing prices. That's what is happening. Prices are still increasing! How many times do we have to say this?

Also, the "commonly understood" way to bring down inflation is silly and propaganda. Think of how dumb it is to destroy the economy just to get prices to not increase as fast. LOL!

Again, please tell me what you and John are really saying. And use the appropriate language. Note also that inflation has caused such a problem, even if prices start to go down, it will have been what I described. Not John, who was wrong about inflation being the problem, as he said it was transitory and would go down, and it didn't. For a long, long time (and still is persistent).

You can read John’s theory and posts on this website for yourself