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Re: Financial topics
Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:35 pm
by John
1108a
Tuesday November 8th, 2022
several of you clowns have predicted and are still predicting massive hyperinflation, which is impossible, and a ridiculous prediction. in other words, your prediction is not only wrong but is massively wrong.
I've said many times, too many times to count, that we are living in a deflationary era, which means that the air is going to end in deflation. the specific prediction was that the CPI would start leveling off near the beginning of 2022, and would start falling over a period of many, many months. that prediction was absolutely correct, except that it was about 6 months early. so my prediction contained a small error, while your prediction was massively wrong.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:45 pm
by Tom Mazanec
My prediction was inflation. Hyperinflation was less likely than "mere" inflation, but still remotely possible.
Also,
The Unintended Consequences of Unintended Consequences
November 7, 2022
https://www.oftwominds.com/blognov22/un ... 11-22.html
Then there's the fantasy that monetary policy imposed by central banks control inflation. The inconvenient reality is central bank monetary policy is akin to building sand castles on the beach: when the tide is ebbing, the castles look magnificent. When the tide is rising, the sand castles are quickly washed away.
Inflation is actually a consequence of much larger forces that central banks don't control: demographics (labor supply), social changes (quiet quitting, laying flat, let it rot), supply of essential minerals/materials, flows of private-sector capital, and most profoundly, the real-world productivity of capital, labor and state policies.
The tide of inflation has reversed and is now rising. This tide is gradual and will temporarily be reversed by the gluts of supply that inevitably follow artificial scarcities and the deflationary impact of credit-asset bubbles popping. But these reversals will be temporary and misleading: inflation has reversed for structural reasons unrelated to credit-asset bubbles and temporary gluts.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:04 pm
by vincecate
The consensus estimate for Thursday's CPI is 8%. My guess is that it is higher.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/11 ... he-balance
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:20 pm
by vincecate
If the VIX keeps following 2008 we have excitement just ahead:
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:26 am
by richard5za
Interesting: With the break up in the gold price and drop in crypto, I have seen a number of asset managers and analysts suggest that the money that originally propelled crypto to dizzy heights is now coming back into gold. Gold starting to play its inflation hedge and safe have role again? We shall need watch the US dollar, back to support at 109.6 as I write. The CPI announcement tomorrow should create direction
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:35 am
by richard5za
As someone who became a trader in his retirement I have developed an interest in price patterns of charts of various assets, mostly stocks. And I have learned to become a successful short term trader of stock markets
But I have never seen any chart resembling Bitcoin ups and in the last year downs.
Since the peak of nearly $ 69000 in November 2021 there are a series of waterfall downs and after each waterfall it recovers a little until the next waterfall. And the normal statistical indicators to help you understand where it might be heading simply don't work. Its almost as if it is being controlled by an invisible hand?
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:48 am
by Cool Breeze
richard5za wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:26 am
Interesting: With the break up in the gold price and drop in crypto, I have seen a number of asset managers and analysts suggest that the money that originally propelled crypto to dizzy heights is now coming back into gold. Gold starting to play its inflation hedge and safe have role again? We shall need watch the US dollar, back to support at 109.6 as I write. The CPI announcement tomorrow should create direction
This will happen, but to a much lesser degree than you think. It went all into crypto before, providing a big move for gold as a setup here, but also a big move naturally into BTC, the last crypto standing (perhaps with ETH). The FTX debacle again makes this better for BTC.
2023 will show this to be the case, especially when the Fed pivots due to the US budgets having nearly all tax revenues go to interest and already "owed" entitlements. Time is running out for the USD, especially when energy is the real currency.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:33 am
by Higgenbotham
Amazon stock (AMZN) fell to a new 2 year low today and is at its lowest price since right after the covid panic in March 2020. The low that month was 81.30 and the low today was 87.27. The all time high was 188.65 in 2021.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:39 pm
by Cool Breeze
Has the next leg down (big one) begun?
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:46 pm
by vincecate
Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:39 pm
Has the next leg down (big one) begun?
After the CPI comes out in the morning this might be more clear.
This 2008 analog make it a reasonable guess though.
Bitcoin is at $15,864 - it was $21,000 yesterday. So it might be indicating a crash.
