Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 12:57 pm

richard5za wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 12:23 pm I think we are at a very interesting phase in the BTC story:
Higg, you reckon that it will break the current down trend...

Yes, sometime within the next few months. If I had to pick a time now, my guess is December or January with an outside chance it could be as early as now. I am not buying now and may not buy at all.

Today I started nibbling on Bitcoin. Probably it has more (down) to go, but the Bankman-Fried story is enough to get me started. I looked at the 1 year log chart for this one.

If it makes a huge whipsaw up after the CPI report I'll probably get out, but the sentiment seems kind of extreme now.

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:37 pm Today I started nibbling on Bitcoin. Probably it has more (down) to go, but the Bankman-Fried story is enough to get me started. I looked at the 1 year log chart for this one.

If it makes a huge whipsaw up after the CPI report I'll probably get out, but the sentiment seems kind of extreme now.

Long term I love Bitcoin. Short term it could easily get much more extreme. In 2017 it got to about $20,000 and then in 2020 it got down to around $3,000. If the market crashes, as I expect, I think Bitcoin will go down further. I am not selling my Bitcoin but my S&P puts should hedge that risk for me.

vincecate wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:20 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:37 pm Today I started nibbling on Bitcoin. Probably it has more (down) to go, but the Bankman-Fried story is enough to get me started. I looked at the 1 year log chart for this one.

If it makes a huge whipsaw up after the CPI report I'll probably get out, but the sentiment seems kind of extreme now.

Long term I love Bitcoin. Short term it could easily get much more extreme. In 2017 it got to about $20,000 and then in 2020 it got down to around $3,000. If the market crashes, as I expect, I think Bitcoin will go down further. I am not selling my Bitcoin but my S&P puts should hedge that risk for me.

Yes, the 2 previous corrections were about 80-85 percent and about a year. We aren't there yet on either time or price, but when it got to about $20,000 it had gone up almost 100 fold from the previous low and when it got to $69,000 it had gone up about 20 fold.

An extremely conservative trader would probably wait. A conservative trader might buy a little, maybe 1-2% of their account. By those measures, you could call me a swinging riverboat gambler. Today I put in about 1/3 of what I am willing to max out at if it just goes straight down from here.

Here's someone who was a lot more specific than me on how many days and how much Bitcoin has corrected in the past. I'm just a dart throwing monkey in this case, really.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cry ... key-crypto

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:02 pm
Here's someone who was a lot more specific than me on how many days and how much Bitcoin has corrected in the past. I'm just a dart throwing monkey in this case, really.

There was some very interesting research done in the 1980's about just how accurate expects in finances, economics and politics are in their predictions. I don't have the research to hand but the conclusions were that more than 80% of the experts were less accurate than a dart throwing chimp.
So when someone becomes adamant about a prediction I always (silently) ask "Are you a dart throwing chimp or a human expert?"
So Higg, with any luck perhaps you will score on the Bitcoin flurry

Just as an add on to the previous post, I do best in terms of making money in short term trading when I don't have strong views on where a market is heading; just follow the price action and technical indicators for guidance.

Some CPI estimates:

$MS: 8%
$WFC: 8%
$GS: 7.9%
$CS: 7.8%
BARCLAYS: 7.8%
JEFFERIES: 7.9%
BNP PARIBAS: 8%
SOCIETE GENERALE: 8.1%
STIFEL NICOLAUS: 7.8%
$NMR: 7.8%
$BAC: 7.8%
HSBC: 7.9%
$BMO: 8%
Consensus: 7.9%

Cleveland Fed: 8.1% https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators ... nowcasting

7.7% I was expecting higher.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

vincecate wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:36 am 7.7%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Surprised me. I think we need to see next month before we can say that inflation has peaked.

richard5za wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 1:54 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:02 pm
I'm just a dart throwing monkey in this case, really.

So Higg, with any luck perhaps you will score on the Bitcoin flurry

I trust you made some good money on Bitcoin today? I see the price is up to over 17600
I don't have the insight to trade crypto.

But I made some good money today going long on our local market as the CPI was being announced. The US market like the 7.7% CPI and US 500 went up about 3% in some 2 minutes.

vincecate wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:20 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:37 pm Today I started nibbling on Bitcoin. Probably it has more (down) to go, but the Bankman-Fried story is enough to get me started. I looked at the 1 year log chart for this one.

If it makes a huge whipsaw up after the CPI report I'll probably get out, but the sentiment seems kind of extreme now.

Long term I love Bitcoin. Short term it could easily get much more extreme. In 2017 it got to about $20,000 and then in 2020 it got down to around $3,000. If the market crashes, as I expect, I think Bitcoin will go down further. I am not selling my Bitcoin but my S&P puts should hedge that risk for me.

I agree with this and as I expect it as well (though I don't see it going lower than 10-13k), I will never panic in the short term madness.