Generational theory, international history and current events
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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/big-sho ... -i-am.html‘Big Short’ Michael Burry on his current positioning: ‘You have no idea how short I am’
PUBLISHED WED, NOV 16 202210:36 AM EST UPDATED 5 HOURS AGO
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:53 pmOther Store Expenses. Other store expenses increased by $57.3 million, to $227.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022, as compared to $170.1 million in 2021, due to increases of $41.4 million and $15.2 million in the Acima and Rent-A-Center Business segments, respectively, primarily attributable to higher customer stolen merchandise loss rates, as discussed further in the section “Segment Performance” below.Operating Profit. Operating profit decreased by $59.0 million, to $11.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022, as compared to $70.0 million in 2021, primarily due to the increases in other store expenses...http://content-archive.fast-edgar.com/2 ... 220331.htmMerchandise Losses. Merchandise losses consist of the following:
Three Months Ended
March 31 2022 2021 (in thousands)
Customer stolen merchandise(1)
$ 99,742 $ 56,588
(1)Increase in customer stolen merchandise in 2022 is primarily due to the increase in customer stolen merchandise loss rates for the three months ended March 31, 2022 compared to the corresponding period in 2021, as described in the Results of Operations section above. In addition, the increase is partly attributable to the timing of the acquisition of Acima Holdings on February 17, 2021, resulting in a partial period of losses for the first quarter of 2021.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/rent-center-i ... 00425.htmlFirst Quarter Segment Highlights
Acima Segment: Skip/stolen losses were 12.6% of revenue in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 8.6% in the prior year period on a pro-forma basis.
Rent-A-Center Business Segment: Skip/stolen losses were 3.9% of revenue in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 2.7% in the prior year period.
I think Wall Street will whistle past the graveyard on that or similar.
https://news.yahoo.com/target-organized ... 06396.htmlTarget: 'Organized retail crime' has driven $400 million in extra profit loss this year
Brian Sozzi·Anchor, Editor-at-Large
Wed, November 16, 2022 at 5:31 AM·3 min read
Target stores are getting looted, and it's taking a huge bite out of profits.
The discount retailer told reporters on a call to discuss its third quarter earnings results that inventory shrinkage — or the disappearance of merchandise — has reduced its gross profit margin by $400 million so far in 2022 compared to 2021.
"At Target, year-to-date, incremental shortage has already reduced our gross margin by more than $400 million vs. last year," Target CFO Michael Fiddelke said on the earnings call, "and we expect it will reduce our gross margin by more than $600 million for the full year."
Fiddelke detailed how there are "a handful of things that can drive shrink in our business and theft is certainly a key driver. We know we're not alone across retail in seeing a trend that I think has gotten increasingly worse over the last 12 to 18 months. So we're taking the right actions in our stores to help curb that trend where we can, but that becomes an increasing headwind on our business and we know the business of others."
A Target spokesperson told Yahoo Finance via email after the call the shrinkage was mostly specifically attributed to "organized retail crime."
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 pm You might remember a previous post where I documented what Bernanke was told in August 2007 by PIMCO and others. They told him in August 2007 with the S&P about 13% off the July high (which happened the same week the Bear Stearns MBS funds went belly up) that he had better drop rates by morning or the Dow would be down another thousand points. There was no question he could do that and he did. Doing so some weeks or months from now in the midst of a meltdown could cause more damage than it fixes.
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/ec ... they-know/I and other PIMCO professionals were attempting to describe to high-ranking Treasury and Fed officials the near-frozen commercial-paper markets and the draining confidence of bond and stock investors worldwide. It was Thursday, August 16. Stocks had closed down 210 points and were expected to open hundreds of points lower on Friday. The country’s largest mortgage originator, Countrywide Financial, was rumored to be in liquidation mode (it survived that crisis). This was to be Ben Bernanke’s first test, an opportunity to prove that he and his board of governors knew “something” as opposed to “nothing.” Pass the test he did, cutting the discount rate the next morning and calming markets in ensuing weeks
My philosophy on things like this is: The Wall Street insiders run the sausage factory. All we can figure out about this is what happens the Thursday before the opex week sausage factory goes into operation can in some extreme cases influence how the sausage is made. But if you're not inside the sausage factory there is no way in hell you're going to figure out how they actually make the sausage. It's never entered my mind to even try to figure it out. If I tried my guess is there's about a 90% chance I'd get it wrong enough to make my trading worse.richard5za wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:22 am Higg,
I'm having trouble working out the maths / logic on why if the Thursday before option expiry there is a big move then option expiry week will be in the opposite direction.
The expression" From failed moves come fast moves"because the majority get caught on the wrong side of the line, might just apply here.
But why the Thursday? Any views?
