Financial topics

[richard5za]

Yes, I have thought we were due for a crash for a long time, but ...

Here's a brief technical analysis view: The S&P 500 broke its year long down trend in January and then moved higher trying to capture 4200. It failed to do this and has fallen about 5% more recently. The year long down trend line is now support at about 3940. It is also supported at 3940 by the 200 dma and the uptrend since last October. So for now 3940 is crucial. A break below it opens up 3800 and perhaps lower and a break above sees a move up, not too sure how high.
The USA economy is quite strong right now which means the Fed will keep up the interest rate pressure but I don't think the terchnicals are present for a crash in the short term.

[Cool Breeze]

In what way is it strong? Residual spending from the money printing in 2020? The future outlook and earnings are bad, and insolvencies will happen with greater rates, one way or another. The markets are forward looking, and is usual, they sell even if news is good, but the future earnings look bad. And most look very bad.

My question is currently do I wait for the big downturn this year, or grab some oil/energy companies now?

[richard5za]

In what way is it strong? Residual spending from the money printing in 2020? The future outlook and earnings are bad, and insolvencies will happen with greater rates, one way or another. The markets are forward looking, and is usual, they sell even if news is good, but the future earnings look bad. And most look very bad.

My question is currently do I wait for the big downturn this year, or grab some oil/energy companies now?

You can look at USA economic indicators for yourself, but just to name a couple: GDP is rising again and unemployment is very low. These indicate a strong economy
When the US goes into recession the rest of the world also goes into recession. A recession means less economic activity and therefore less demand for energy and so the oil price goes down rather than up. There are of course many other factors influencing energy prices.

[aeden]

Insider transactions may seem like an unlikely market-timing indicator, but they have a track record of providing a read. You know that.
Goto finviz.com for some guidance and do some CAGR checks. Non ESG as stakeholder retard removals. 'do' rather than what they 'say'

[Cool Breeze]

In what way is it strong? Residual spending from the money printing in 2020? The future outlook and earnings are bad, and insolvencies will happen with greater rates, one way or another. The markets are forward looking, and is usual, they sell even if news is good, but the future earnings look bad. And most look very bad.

My question is currently do I wait for the big downturn this year, or grab some oil/energy companies now?

You can look at USA economic indicators for yourself, but just to name a couple: GDP is rising again and unemployment is very low. These indicate a strong economy
When the US goes into recession the rest of the world also goes into recession. A recession means less economic activity and therefore less demand for energy and so the oil price goes down rather than up. There are of course many other factors influencing energy prices.

Yes, but GDP has a large government component (= mostly fake at this point, at least historically compared) and unemployment is totally fake, just like CPI is. Again, I'm waiting for the disinflation, but supply decreasing when people don't produce is the other side of the scarcity argument; you're just looking at demand, and oil will always be in demand. Especially in the next 10-15 years.

We look like we're breaking through that support level on the S&P downside, right on March 1. Look out.

[richard5za]

You can look at USA economic indicators for yourself, but just to name a couple: GDP is rising again and unemployment is very low. These indicate a strong economy
When the US goes into recession the rest of the world also goes into recession. A recession means less economic activity and therefore less demand for energy and so the oil price goes down rather than up. There are of course many other factors influencing energy prices.

We look like we're breaking through that support level on the S&P downside, right on March 1. Look out.

Keep your eyes glued to 14 March CPI - very NB. If inflation looks beaten stocks could fly high. If not, and inflation is rising, market will assume more FED interest rate hikes and stocks go down. Then don't overlook 22 March FOMC - it could be 50 bps instead of 25. We shall see in due course

[Cool Breeze]

You can look at USA economic indicators for yourself, but just to name a couple: GDP is rising again and unemployment is very low. These indicate a strong economy
When the US goes into recession the rest of the world also goes into recession. A recession means less economic activity and therefore less demand for energy and so the oil price goes down rather than up. There are of course many other factors influencing energy prices.

We look like we're breaking through that support level on the S&P downside, right on March 1. Look out.

Keep your eyes glued to 14 March CPI - very NB. If inflation looks beaten stocks could fly high. If not, and inflation is rising, market will assume more FED interest rate hikes and stocks go down. Then don't overlook 22 March FOMC - it could be 50 bps instead of 25. We shall see in due course

It'll be 50 bps.

Your 3940 number got broken ... in the 10 am hour and then slowly rose ...

We'll be seein' that again.

[richard5za]

We look like we're breaking through that support level on the S&P downside, right on March 1. Look out.

Keep your eyes glued to 14 March CPI - very NB. If inflation looks beaten stocks could fly high. If not, and inflation is rising, market will assume more FED interest rate hikes and stocks go down. Then don't overlook 22 March FOMC - it could be 50 bps instead of 25. We shall see in due course

It'll be 50 bps.

Your 3940 number got broken ... in the 10 am hour and then slowly rose ...

We'll be seein' that again.

Closing price is NB, not intraday. A decisive (repeat decisive) break below 3940 should lead to the next support level circa 3800.
BUT Friday close of S&P 500 was 4045 up 1.61% !! Now we need to start figuring !!
I can't tell you what the market will do from here. My gut feel tells me we are in for an up and down choppy time for quite a while

[John]

Monday, March 06, 2023

I've been hearing a lot about zero-day
options, which are new, and which I've
written about a few weeks ago. It's a
low-cost way to gamble for one day, and
they're exploding, especially among
young investors. If you want to invest
in a stock, but not until tomorrow, then
you can purchase a one-day call or put,
so you don't have to just sit on your
hands for 24 hours. What fun!

[aeden]

SOFR knocked out the Eurodollar because that was the Fed’s and New York’s ultimate goal; to replace the global rate for dollars with a domestic one where the capital would have to trade here. The globe takes its cues, not from what Europe or Hong Kong wants, but what America needs.
This stabilizes our banking system, taking back power the Fed had ceded under Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen and reminding everyone else just who runs Bartertown.
Most importantly, it pulls liquidity from around the world back into US markets, providing a foundation for a future where Davos doesn’t control DC.

Velvit rope was always the option. No date needed here.

Anyways H was ahead of the most in select management.
Two-thirds of professional respondents believe cash will be a net positive on their portfolios... today.
The option dust below will allow if/then to if/because select measures.
We will tbill as dad takes the tbird away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brZfudD4vKA

Change from 1 Year Ago 648.5%
https://ycharts.com/indicators/6_month_ ... _bill_rate