Generational theory, international history and current events
https://www.gdxforum.com/forum/
How do you explain the discrepancy, John?But now imagine how things will look in January 2022:
People will have gone back to work, since the Biden handouts
will have ended.
Even truck drivers will have gone back to work, in order to feed
their families.
With the holiday season over, the flood of products into the
California ports will have slowed substantially, and the backups will
have eased.
Many of the goods that were stuck in ships offshore will finally
make it into retail stores, too late for the holiday season.
So the post-holiday sales will result in price cuts deeper than
in pre-pandemic years.
People will be on their post-holiday diets.
So there's every reason to believe that the CPI will fall sharply in
2022, same as in 2009, and there's no reason to believe that the CPI
increases will continue as they did in the 1970s.
You're completely full of crap, which isn't the last bit surprising,Tom Mazanec wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:51 am > I look forward to John's reaction to today's CPI. He made a
> prediction last year (copied on my topic) that inflation would
> drop dramatically in January 2022 (not spring 2022 or mid-2022,
> January).
> My background is science (specifically astronomy). A scientific
> theory stands or falls on predictions. John, who is the World's
> Greatest Expert in the generational Theory of Economics and
> Politics, made a prediction. Reply?
So your statement that I said that "inflation would drop dramaticallyJohn wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:11 am > So I'm suggesting that the end may come as early as February,
> thanks to the "corrective action" provided by such factors as
> supply chain problems clearing up, holiday-based demand
> decreasing, and post-holiday sales bringing retail prices down.
> It may start coming down a bit later than that, but the Law of
> Reversion of the Mean says that it won't be much later. And that
> doesn't mean that the cpi will fall below 2.62% in February. It
> means that the cpi will have peaked in February, and will start
> falling month after month, until it's below 2.62% and, indeed,
> until it's below 0.
I've written over 6,000 articles in the last 20 years. I've respondedCool Breeze wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 12:50 pm > Why can't people admit they are wrong at least occasionally around
> here? That's my only issue with the place. Such smart people, but
> lacking humility in this regard.
You have been dead wrong about this for over a year, and you haven't admitted anything. We keep saying inflation will increase, and it's not just me, and we have been right.John wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:39 am When someone says that I'm wrong,
and I'm actually wrong, then I apologize and thank him for the
correction. So I've made mistakes, and I always admit I'm wrong.
I never predicted "hyperinflation". I always define terms, because I am a critical thinker and careful to say what I say, and mean what I mean. You claim others say things that they don't say, which isn't honest or critical. It is telling, though.But before I admit I'm wrong about a particular subject then I have to
be actually wrong about that subject. The current situation is very
familiar to me. People like you and other people in "this place" have
been predicting hyperinflation and "out of control" inflation for
almost every month in the last 20 years, and it's never happened.
While the latest 7.5% reading is higher than I expected, it's not
hyperinflation, and it's not "out of control" inflation. Based on my
analyses referenced in the previous post, inflation is close to
peaking, even if the peak occurs one or two months later than I
expected. If I'm wrong, it will be the first time.
Nice distraction. It proves my point, just like when you attribute things that people didn't say, as above. I have a thread about such things, which you made. Nice try, though.By the way, I forgot to check. Has bitcoin reached $100K yet?