From a web site reader:
> I just simply wonder.
> What will you do if your "generational" repeat of history such as
> a generational panic sell off, a repeat of the 1920-30 depression
> and so on never takes place? There is so much soberness and common
> sense in many of your observations but then again there is also
> this "lock up" towards that humans doesn't change. I don't argue
> by saying that your scenario has a potential of not coming true,
> it has, but what I argue for is the lack of arguments for it not
> to come true and so the fulfillment of your "prediction".
All I can tell you is that I'm as astounded as everyone else is that
the predictions that come from Generational Dynamics always seem to
come true. What I've accomplished in the last six years I would have
thought ten years ago to be mathematically impossible.
One reason that I've succeeded where others have failed is because
I'm able to completely reject politics as a driving force. When I
see many of the political arguments going on today, it takes my
breath away to see how moronic they are. Nobel prize winner Krugman
is perhaps the principal buffoon today that illustrates this
principle, but it's also true of everything that all the candidates
are saying. I'm not even going to vote next week, because to do so
would force me to choose among irrelevancies, and that might infect
my mind in other areas. Readers of this web site have the right to
know that the views I express are determined theoretically, and are
completely free of politics and ideology.
OK, so theory tells me that there has to be a generational panic and
crash. There's no doubt about that. What should I do with that?
Should I ignore it, and become as wishy-washy as everyone else? Or
should I just state it as a consequence of generational theory, and
let the chips fall where they may? Obviously I've chosen the latter,
even though I'm well aware of the risk I'm taking.
And what is the risk? That I could be wrong? If that happens, I
suppose I'll have to apologize, and post a lengthy explanation of how
the generational theory that I've developed has to be corrected.
Right now, I can't even imagine a scenario where a generational panic
and crash could be avoided, but if I've made a mistake, I'll just
have to own up to it.
I was much more circumspect when I was starting out, in 2003. But as
one prediction after another has come true, I've gained confidence
and concluded that the Generational Dynamics theory that I've
developed is a major theoretical and practical discovery. It may not
be considered important in my lifetime, but I do believe that it will
be recognized as a major scholarly breakthrough within 20 years or
so.
In the meantime, I have an obligation to the thousands of regular
readers of this web site. (And incidentally, the number of readers
took a huge spurt in the last couple of weeks. I believe I now have
something like 15,000-20,000 regular readers.) These people count on
me to tell what I know about what's going on, and if I'm certain that
there's going to be a generational panic and crash, I have an
obligation to tell them.
It's been exciting to develop Generational Dynamics, but it's also
been extremely upsetting. I've had hundreds of sleepless nights in
the last six years, because I could foresee what's coming.
But I also know that this web site is "a calling." This concept is
usually stated in regard to religion -- e.g., a man is "called" to
the priesthood. Well, I now realize that every event of my life -- the
courses I took in college, the jobs I took, the things I succeeded at,
the things I failed at -- all of these things were pointing me in the
direction of the work I'm doing on my web site. I used to think I
was a computer programmer, but now I know that my life's job is to
help people who want to be helped to get through this crisis as well
as is possible.
Sincerely,
John