Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John wrote: Robert Prechter just appeared on Bloomberg TV, and he's made some of
his charts available to Bloomberg viewers for free

Roubini just appeared on the Nightly Business Report (tonight). The fact that these two guys appeared on national television on the same day should tell you something important.

From a web site reader:

> I just simply wonder.

> What will you do if your "generational" repeat of history such as
> a generational panic sell off, a repeat of the 1920-30 depression
> and so on never takes place? There is so much soberness and common
> sense in many of your observations but then again there is also
> this "lock up" towards that humans doesn't change. I don't argue
> by saying that your scenario has a potential of not coming true,
> it has, but what I argue for is the lack of arguments for it not
> to come true and so the fulfillment of your "prediction".

All I can tell you is that I'm as astounded as everyone else is that
the predictions that come from Generational Dynamics always seem to
come true. What I've accomplished in the last six years I would have
thought ten years ago to be mathematically impossible.

One reason that I've succeeded where others have failed is because
I'm able to completely reject politics as a driving force. When I
see many of the political arguments going on today, it takes my
breath away to see how moronic they are. Nobel prize winner Krugman
is perhaps the principal buffoon today that illustrates this
principle, but it's also true of everything that all the candidates
are saying. I'm not even going to vote next week, because to do so
would force me to choose among irrelevancies, and that might infect
my mind in other areas. Readers of this web site have the right to
know that the views I express are determined theoretically, and are
completely free of politics and ideology.

OK, so theory tells me that there has to be a generational panic and
crash. There's no doubt about that. What should I do with that?
Should I ignore it, and become as wishy-washy as everyone else? Or
should I just state it as a consequence of generational theory, and
let the chips fall where they may? Obviously I've chosen the latter,
even though I'm well aware of the risk I'm taking.

And what is the risk? That I could be wrong? If that happens, I
suppose I'll have to apologize, and post a lengthy explanation of how
the generational theory that I've developed has to be corrected.
Right now, I can't even imagine a scenario where a generational panic
and crash could be avoided, but if I've made a mistake, I'll just
have to own up to it.

I was much more circumspect when I was starting out, in 2003. But as
one prediction after another has come true, I've gained confidence
and concluded that the Generational Dynamics theory that I've
developed is a major theoretical and practical discovery. It may not
be considered important in my lifetime, but I do believe that it will
be recognized as a major scholarly breakthrough within 20 years or
so.

In the meantime, I have an obligation to the thousands of regular
readers of this web site. (And incidentally, the number of readers
took a huge spurt in the last couple of weeks. I believe I now have
something like 15,000-20,000 regular readers.) These people count on
me to tell what I know about what's going on, and if I'm certain that
there's going to be a generational panic and crash, I have an
obligation to tell them.

It's been exciting to develop Generational Dynamics, but it's also
been extremely upsetting. I've had hundreds of sleepless nights in
the last six years, because I could foresee what's coming.

But I also know that this web site is "a calling." This concept is
usually stated in regard to religion -- e.g., a man is "called" to
the priesthood. Well, I now realize that every event of my life -- the
courses I took in college, the jobs I took, the things I succeeded at,
the things I failed at -- all of these things were pointing me in the
direction of the work I'm doing on my web site. I used to think I
was a computer programmer, but now I know that my life's job is to
help people who want to be helped to get through this crisis as well
as is possible.



Sincerely,

John

The indexes have been amazingly volatile this morning, although
they're netting out to be close to flat, at least by recent
standards.

The big news today will occur this afternoon at 2:15 pm, when the Fed
is expected to announce a lowering of the Fed funds rate to 1.0% from
1.5%.

Sincerely,

John

From a web site reader:

> John, I have read your current blog dated 27-Oct , agree and
> understand that as the US$ becomes scarce it strengthens in value
> but you also say later on that the euro is about to implode. Do
> you mean becoming scarce as with the US$? Then is it not the case
> that the euro will eventually strengthen ? I ask this as i moved
> from Britain, in early 2008, knowing this scenario was on course,
> to France. My objective was to be debt free and now hibernate with
> a small amount of euros . My question is- should i spread the cash
> risk to having several currencies or am i too late?

As I've written several times, the issue with the euro is whether it
will survive at all, given that it's such a new currency and that the
current crisis is subjecting it to extraordinary stresses.

However, the dissolution of the euro currency will not make euros
worthless. It will mean a return to national currencies, for some or
all euroland countries.

Thus, in the scenario that you're describing, the possibility arises
that you'll be holding a bunch of French francs, rather than a bunch
of euros.

It's possible that your francs will be worth more than your euros, or
worth less. I don't know any way of predicting that, except by
making an appraisal of each country's economy, and inferring the
strength of its national currency from the strength of its economy.

So I guess the answer to your question is: Keep your eye on what
Sarko does, and make your decision that way.

Sincerely,

John

John wrote:From a web site reader:

> John, I have read your current blog dated 27-Oct , agree and
> understand that as the US$ becomes scarce it strengthens in value
> but you also say later on that the euro is about to implode. Do
> you mean becoming scarce as with the US$? Then is it not the case
> that the euro will eventually strengthen ? I ask this as i moved
> from Britain, in early 2008, knowing this scenario was on course,
> to France. My objective was to be debt free and now hibernate with
> a small amount of euros . My question is- should i spread the cash
> risk to having several currencies or am i too late?

As I've written several times, the issue with the euro is whether it
will survive at all, given that it's such a new currency and that the
current crisis is subjecting it to extraordinary stresses.

However, the dissolution of the euro currency will not make euros
worthless. It will mean a return to national currencies, for some or
all euroland countries.

Thus, in the scenario that you're describing, the possibility arises
that you'll be holding a bunch of French francs, rather than a bunch
of euros.

It's possible that your francs will be worth more than your euros, or
worth less. I don't know any way of predicting that, except by
making an appraisal of each country's economy, and inferring the
strength of its national currency from the strength of its economy.

So I guess the answer to your question is: Keep your eye on what
Sarko does, and make your decision that way.

Sincerely,

John

It is really unbelievable.
John, would you be so kind and explain little bit deeper this "theory" in which Euro will be "reversed" to original currencies?

The main reason of Euro is to stay strong in this time when - DOLLAR collapsing.
(Nick Mos explained it for you quite good AND chalenge your actualy on the theme "GD..." - but obviously you do not dare to discuss it with him.)

This "theory" of "dominant dollar" and "Euro collapse" is typical American view on "the World".
Everybody on the Planet - are there just to serve "the Americans" and "democracy".

That is really too much.
Your "theories" without ANY historical, logical or any other ground - hopefully you will explained "one day".



On the other side the masses or irresponsible American citizens "feeling" another wave of the financial crises - credit card crises:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/busin ... ref=slogin

malleni wrote: > It is really unbelievable. John, would you be so kind and explain
> little bit deeper this "theory" in which Euro will be "reversed"
> to original currencies?

** Will the Euro currency collapse?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e040815b

John

John,

Thanks for link.

But this link is from 2004 and based on The Morgan Stanley report.
We all know what is with big American banks and their forecasts today. NOT necessary to link further (I hope).

On the other side - the Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden and even Norway thinking about to change own currencies to Euro!

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/2/20081027/tbs ... 1e315.html

It is for sure, "typically" for "moribund currency" to get other countries to consider with great velocity adoption of the "dieing currency"!....

(I do not want to mentioned Iceland which NOW after all these years under American control and refusing to adopt EURO - now begging to be taken in the EURO zone!)

Kind regards
malleni

malleni wrote: > But this link is from 2004 and based on The Morgan Stanley
> report. We all know what is with big American banks and their
> forecasts today. NOT necessary to link further (I hope).

Yes, but the mechanics of returning to the national currencies has
not changed, as far as I know. You asked how it would be possible,
and that article explains it.

As you may know from many other articles on my web site, I'm actually
expecting a new European war. These wars have happened like
clockwork -- since 1066 between England and France, and before that
with the Roman empire. It's been only 62 years since the last war,
and that's only the blink of an eye in generational terms.

Finally, I get the impression that you think that I think that the
strengthening of the dollar in a deflationary spiral is a GOOD thing.
You must know that I'm also expecting massive homelessness,
starvation and bankruptcy in America. You know that, don't you?
What more do you want?

Sincerely,

John

John wrote:

malleni wrote: > But this link is from 2004 and based on The Morgan Stanley
> report. We all know what is with big American banks and their
> forecasts today. NOT necessary to link further (I hope).

Yes, but the mechanics of returning to the national currencies has
not changed, as far as I know. You asked how it would be possible,
and that article explains it.

As you may know from many other articles on my web site, I'm actually
expecting a new European war. These wars have happened like
clockwork -- since 1066 between England and France, and before that
with the Roman empire. It's been only 62 years since the last war,
and that's only the blink of an eye in generational terms.

Finally, I get the impression that you think that I think that the
strengthening of the dollar in a deflationary spiral is a GOOD thing.
You must know that I'm also expecting massive homelessness,
starvation and bankruptcy in America. You know that, don't you?
What more do you want?

Sincerely,

John

OK.
You said your opinion.
I give you also a link, but unfortunately in French (I have not time to search now).
In it you can find that Nordic countries considered FAST change to EURO.
In my opinion it is quite strange that more countries considered (or already search) to connect to EURO zone - since in your opinion EURO is a death currency. (Obviously "your theory" has no problem with it.)

Regarding "strong dollar" - I have not so much to say.
I try already to explain my point of view, but Mos explained it in much better English them my (sorry)
Generally - I agreed with him, and not with your predictions.

Not that I do not appreciated your work or meaning, but for simple reason that I can not find a logical flow in your theory.

Additional, if you predict a "war in Europe" and "massive homelessness, starvation and bankruptcy in America" - it is not difficult to understand who you think, will "easier" go through this crises.

Your opinion is not at all strange after all what I read from your side and this forum, or more exactly to say - it is clear that "your theory" predict so...
...But as I said - logical flow is NOT there (in my opinion).

Sincerely,
malleni

Additional contribution to the "dollar as world currency" - and and undoubted "value":

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081028/117991229.html

"...PM Putin Suggests Russia, China Ditch Dollar in Trade Deals

"We should consider improving the payment system for bilateral trade, including by gradually adopting a broader use of national currencies," Putin told a bilateral economic forum. He admitted the task would be tough, but said it was necessary amid the current problems with the dollar-based global economy....."