Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Navigator wrote:

Guest wrote:

This is roughly what I think will happen with WW III. The next world war will utterly destroy the socialist states. They will no longer be able to provide for their citizens. And the people do not have the social structures to compensate for this. This will lead to a post WW III period for Europe that will be FAR worse than the post WW I period. And the individuals with power that will emerge out of this anarchy, I believe, will be far worse than Hitler and Stalin.

Do you see countries even existing in Europe after World War 3 or are you talking Mad Max? What will Europe look like after the next world war? I would like you to expand on this?

Also, i'm religious too, and I follow what you are saying. I just wonder if we are heading for another Noah's Ark like event (few survivors)?

I think that countries will try to exist after WW3. The problem with the socialist states is that they have done a lot to destroy the basic building block of society, the family.

Prior to socialism, we had extended families. This meant grandparents living with their children and grandchildren. Socialism and Moral Decay (manifest in divorce rates) have ended the extended family and done a lot of damage to family ties. Without familial bonds, and without government subsidies for individuals (be that social security or welfare of some kind), societies will, IMHO, fall apart.

Concerning families, I wrote about some of this in my blog:
https://comingstorms.com/family-change-part-1/

https://comingstorms.com/family-change-part-2/

Then, of course, there is the problem with people who are living entirely on state support. What do you think these people will do when they stop getting government support? They aren't just going to sit there and starve.

These two things, family disintegration and dependence on state support, put us all in "new territory" as far as the cycle goes.

Add this to what you can read about Germany or Russia at the end of World War One.

LOL, In your articles you mention that social security gives the first generations who enrolled into it a massive windfall but became increasingly a burden to later generations of enrollees. You argue, Correctly that this is unsustainable, you mention that a return to the (now destroyed) extended family unit would prevent seniors from eventually running out of money and starving on the streets. I disagree, there is another solution that cuts the dead weight which is what me and other Xers and Millies propose; which is the just let them die, after all the original social security generation has mostly died out at this point, however the postwar babies who replaced them on the rolls overspent and frittered away their savings on conspicuous consumption, indeed such sloth should not be simply rewarded, the real world doesn't act that way. Therefore redistribute money that is currently going to entitlements and send it to infrastructure spending and defense spending instead.

John wrote: The hatred level in the Balkans is off the scale.

This is true, and the natural progression you'd expect from generational theory would have been a cataclysmic crescendo of bloody genocide. That step was started but not finished during the Yugoslav Wars. Instead NATO intervened and halted the bloodshed and necessary resolution. So today, the conflict is unresolved and you have schools split literally and physically down the middle with one side for Muslims, one for Christians. The hatred is indeed "off-scale" and barely held in check. It will not subside until one side eliminates the other.

Navigator wrote:Getting back to current events, I think a worrisome development that is not getting much notice are Putin's efforts to "merge" Russia with Belarus. I think that he may be close to forcing the issue (a financial crisis would allow him to "seal the deal"). This would give him an option to what happens when he can't be President of Russia anymore (he could be head of a new multi-state conglomerate). Plus it would give him a much better strategic position versus Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Poland.

It gets worse.


https://www.csis.org/features/kremlin-playbook-2

Food production in the United States will almost certainly drop dramatically this year because of flooding:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... production
I remember 1988, when we had the opposite problem. I recall reading that two years together like 1988 and civilization would start ripping at the seams. America is the world's breadbasket. What happens if 2020 is a bad year and we have to stop exporting food? How much of humanity lives on US crops?

Dr. Xenakis,

Here's evidence that supports your theory of Chinese electronics companies implanting backdoor espionage programming into their devices.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03- ... data-china

Tom Mazanec wrote:Food production in the United States will almost certainly drop dramatically this year because of flooding:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... production
I remember 1988, when we had the opposite problem. I recall reading that two years together like 1988 and civilization would start ripping at the seams. America is the world's breadbasket. What happens if 2020 is a bad year and we have to stop exporting food? How much of humanity lives on US crops?

No worries, mate. The entire African population will just move to Europe and go on benefits

** 22-Mar-2019 Finland investigates data breach in Nokia-7 phones

josa0512 wrote: > Here's evidence that supports your theory of Chinese electronics
> companies implanting backdoor espionage programming into their
> devices.

> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03- ... data-china

Thanks for posting this. If it's confirmed that this is a legtimate
case of data theft by China, it will be significant.

However, I can't figure out from the articles what's going on. It
says that Finland is investigating a data breach where Nokia-7 phones
are sending user data back to China, but it doesn't really explain
how. It might be a software bug, or it might be an illegal
"backdoor." It will be interesting to see what further investigation
reveals.

** 22-Mar-2019 Italy joining China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

• Xi Jinping and his wife, Peng Liyua, arrive in Italy
  on Thursday

Alarms are being raised in the US and other Western countries over a
visit to Italy on Thursday by China's president Xi Jinping, and an
agreement to a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) about a deal to make
Italy the first major democracy to join China’s Belt and Road
infrastructure initiative.

The MoU is not an agreement, but is just a compendium of reassuring
phrases like "friendship" and "mutual economic benefit." Full details
of the planned infrastructure project have not been released, but it
reportedly includes collaboration and investments in the northern
Italian ports of Genoa and Trieste as well as roads, railways,
airports and telecommunications.

Italy is desperate for money, so this seems like the perfect
solution. But concerns are being raised for two reasons.

First, China could set a debt trap and gain ownership of Italy's
ports. The Chinese already own Greece's port of Piraeus, which the
China shipping company Cosco acquired in 2016.

Second, any servers or networks installed by the Chinese are going to
be subject to Chinese law which requires Huawei and other Chinese
companies to cooperate with the military in stealing intelligence from
other countries, even when doing so would be illegal. Furthermore,
it's widely understood that Huawei has almost certainly installed
undetectable "backdoors" in all its devices, from smartphones to
routers, since it's very easy to do so, and China's military can use
those backdoors to steal data or control the devices from Beijing.
China has been subsidizing Huawei in order to gain international
market share, and any Huawei device or network with backdoors can be
shut down or controlled at a time of the Chinese military's choosing.

So if Italy's infrastructure deal with China included a 5G network,
then that network would be under the control of China's military, and
could affect the security of interconnected networks throughout Europe.


Article 7 of China's National Intelligence Law says:

> "All organizations and citizens shall, in accordance with the law,
> support, cooperate with, and collaborate in national intelligence
> work, and guard the secrecy of national intelligence work they are
> aware of. The state will protect individuals and organizations
> that support, cooperate with, and collaborate in national
> intelligence work."

It was revealed last year that, from January 2012 to January 2017,
China was continually hacking African Union servers in Addis Ababa
that Huawei had deployed. Every night, from midnight to 2 am for five
years, servers in Shanghai were hacking the African Union servers and
stealing data.

It went further -- after the data theft was discovered, a sweep for
bugs revealed microphones hidden in desks and walls.

The visit by Xi Jinping has split Italy's ruling coalition. The
far-right Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini is opposed, while
coalition partner Luigi Di Maio is a supporter.

In 2012, eleven EU member states and five Balkan countries signed an
MoU with China on investment, transport, finance, science, education,
and culture. In 2018, Greece and Portugal signed similar MoUs, as
China had already made major investments in both countries.

But Italy is considered a far greater risk because Italy is a member
of the G7 group of countries, and because Italy’s economy is larger
than that of all the other EU countries combined that signed the MoU
with China. The potential impact on trade and investment to and from
China is, therefore, much more significant.


----- Sources:

-- China's new Silk Road gets bumpy as Xi visits Italy
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... y-11368812
(AFP, 22-Mar-2019)

-- Italy-China Memorandum of understanding
https://www.corriere.it/economia/19_mar ... 2643.shtml
(Corriere.it, 19-Mar-2019)


-- China’s Xi visits Italy with infrastructure deal as prize
https://www.pressherald.com/2019/03/21/ ... -as-prize/
(AP)

-- Italy’s Embrace of China’s Belt and Road Initiative Comes With
Risks and Opportunity
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/n ... pportunity
(Atlantic Council, 20-Mar-2019)


-- The African Union headquarters hack and Australia’s 5G network
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-a ... g-network/
(ASPI, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 13-Jul-2018)


-- Belt and Road Initiative / G7 / Italy’s Risky China Gamble
https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/italys- ... na-gamble/
(Diplomat, 14-Mar-2019)


-- Interview: Xi's upcoming visit to boost China-Italy cooperation
under BRI, says Italian PM
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-0 ... 913695.htm
(Xinhua, 22-Mar-2019)

** 22-Mar-2019 North Korea withdraws from liaison office with South Korea

North Korea has withdrawn its personnel from the inter-Korean joint
liaison office at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), a joint
manufacturing facility that was already closed. The office was set up
last year during the charm offensive so that officials from North and
South Korea could meet to discuss possible reunification.

The announcement comes weeks after the failed Hanoi summit, and a day
after the US imposed sanctions on two Chinese shipping companies
helping North Korea to evade sanctions.

The North said it will not care about whether South Korean officials
remain or withdraw from the office. If you're good at reading tea
leaves, then you can make of that as you want.

--- Sources:


-- North Korea withdraws staff from inter-Korean liaison office in
Kaesong: MOU No reason given for the move, vice unification
minister says
https://www.nknews.org/2019/03/north-ko ... esong-mou/
(North Korea News)


-- N. Korea withdraws from inter-Korean liaison office
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2019032201 ... ction=news
(Yonhap, South Korea)

-- US imposes sanctions on Chinese companies for helping North Korea
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/ ... 17493.html
(Al-Jazeera, 21-Mar-2019)

** 22-Mar-2019 Trump cancels new North Korea sanctions

President Donald Trump startled everyone again this afternoon with a
new tweet:

> @realDonaldTrump It was announced today by the U.S. Treasury that
> additional large scale Sanctions would be added to those already
> existing Sanctions on North Korea. I have today ordered the
> withdrawal of those additional Sanctions! 1:22 PM - 22 Mar
> 2019

The BBC says that everyone in Washington was caught completely by
surprise.

Sarah Sanders explained it as follows: "President Trump likes Chairman
Kim and he doesn't think these sanctions will be necessary."


--- Sources:


-- Trump will remove new North Korea-related sanctions because he
'likes' Kim Jong Un
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/trump-s ... tions.html
(CNBC)