Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 14-Jun-2020 World View: China on 'wartime footing', Pakistan, India face new surge of Covid-19 cases

I suppose it would be cruel and unfair to enjoy a tiny bit of
Schadenfreude over a major outbreak of Covid-19 in Beijing this
weekend, after weeks of CCP gloating about how they had been so
brilliant and the Chinese Communist government had been so much more
effective than democratic governments at controlling the outbreak.
And so, since that enjoyment would be clearly cruel and unfair, let's
not do that, and let's just be somber about this Beijing outbreak.

China has put Beijing on a "wartime footing" and Beijing’s largest
wholesale vegetable market – Xinfadi market -- was shot down on
Saturday, after 45 people out of 517 tested were positive for
Covid-19.

This is a really big deal, because Xinfadi provides 90% of Beijing's
vegetables and fruit, as well as much of the meat and fish. The
market employs or hosts some 10,000 workers and vendors, and all of
those will now have to be tested, an enormous job.

But Xinfadi also sells food to restaurants, stores and markets in many
places in China. The CCP will have to track all those down, and do
testing and contact tracing on all their employees and customers.

The Communists have "locked down" several neighborhoods around the the
market, but the question now is how closely they will follow the
successful model they used in Wuhan. In Wuhan, they locked down the
entire city, and blocked all flights to and from the city within
China, so that the virus would not spread elsewhere in China.
However, they permitted and encouraged flights to and from other
countries, so that the virus would be seeded in as many countries as
possible, so that China wouldn't be alone in fighting the virus.

So now the question is whether they're going to have to lock down all
of Beijing. That would be an economic problem, but it would also be
an enormous humiliation for the dictator Xi Jinping, whom the
Communists are portraying as the man who defeated Covid-19 in China,
with Beijing as a shining example. If the Beijing virus spread gets
out of hand, it could seriously destabilize Xi Jinping's dictatorship.

***
*** Impact on the Ladakh border confrontation
***

There's another possible consequence, related to the article that I
just posted on the India-China border confrontation in Ladakh.

** 13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200613



If the CCP is now distracted by a large virus outbreak in Beijing and
other provinces, then it could affect deployment of Chinese troops in
Ladakh -- and the effect could go either way. It may encourage the
CCP to delay further action or to speed up further action, depending
on the paranoic state of mind by Xi Jinping and the other CCP thugs on
any given day.

The Ladakh situation has two other players besides China -- India and
Pakistan. And the latter two countries are also suffering major
Covid-19 surges, further complicating the Covid-19 situation.

Image
  • Covid-19 cases in Pakistan

The novel coronavirus is spreading faster in Pakistan than almost
anywhere else in the world, yet most people there do not take the
pandemic seriously. As of Friday, COVID-19 cases in Pakistan had
reached 125,933. Infections have risen by more than 500% over the
last week.

But lockdown rules are being relaxed because of widely believed
conspiracy theories, such as the one put forth by Tariq Jameel,
Pakistan's most famous televised Islamic cleric, claiming that the
coronavirus is a sign of God's wrath over such sins as women dancing
and dressing immodestly.

Covid-19 cases are also surging in India's capital, Delhi. The total
number of 320,922 officially confirmed cases puts India fourth in the
world - after the US, Brazil and Russia - in the pandemic. The
Hindustan Times reports that Delhi is the third worst-hit state in
India after Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.

On Sunday, India announced that it would make 500 railway carriages
available to be converted to house 8,000 more beds for coronavirus
patients in Delhi.

So all three parties to the Ladakh border crisis -- China, India,
Pakistan -- are also embroiled in Covid-19 crises, with unpredictable
results.

---- Sources:

-- Beijing In 'Wartime Emergency Mode' Amid Fresh Cluster Of
Coronavirus Cases
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... irus-cases
(NPR, 13-Jun-2020)

-- Beijing district in 'wartime emergency' after virus cluster at
major food market
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23K03V
(Reuters, 13-Jun-2020)

-- Beijing’s largest vegetables supplying base shut down as novel
coronavirus detected among some merchants
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191455.shtml
(Global Times, 13-Jun-2020)

-- Pakistan’s Confused COVID-19 Response
https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/pakista ... -response/
(Diplomat, 9-Jun-2020)

-- Conspiracy theories help coronavirus take root in Pakistan
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coron ... n-Pakistan
(Nikkei, 13-Jun-2020)

-- Coronavirus threatens to upend Pakistan's long war against polio
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Corona ... inst-polio
(Nikkei, 3-Jun-2020)

-- Coronavirus: India to use 500 train carriages as wards in Delhi
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53039868
(BBC, 14-Jun-2020)
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 14-Jun-2020 World View: Covid-19 vs Spanish Flu pandemic

With the number of Covid-19 cases globally continuing to rise, rapidly
in some places, it's clear that the pandemic is going to get far
worse, but that a lot of the analysis you hear on tv is delusional,
and tries to give the impression that the worst is over.

An exception is Michael Osterholm, Univ of Minnesota, infectious
disease epidemiologist, appeared on Fox News Sunday today.

His major point was this: "Only 5% of the population has been infected
so far. This virus will not slow down until 60-70% of the population
has been infected."

These figures mean that the Covid-19 pandemic will have the same
results as the 1917-19 Spanish Flu pandemic. I compared the two
pandemics in this article:

** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200322



This means that some 20 million people will be infected, unless
a miracle vaccine is found quickly.

There have been 115,000 deaths so far. The CDC projects
125,000 to 140,000 deaths by July 4.

This suggests that there will be 2 million deaths before it's over,
unless a miracle vaccine or treatment is found quickly. This is
comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic.

According to Osterholm:
> "So one way or another, we're gonna see lots of
> additional cases.

> Will reopening [end lockdowns] increase the number of cases? It
> should, and in some states it's substantially increasing, but in
> some states it's been dropping. We don't understand why.

> We're not driving this tiger - we're riding it. we're going to
> go from 5% of the population affected with all the pain, death,
> suffering and economic disruption that's occurred today. Trust
> me, we have a long ways to go to get to that 60 or 70% of people
> infected, unless we get a vaccine in time. How we're gonna get
> there is still unclear.

> My greatest concern is if cases did start to disappear across the
> country, suggesting that we're in a "trough," meaning a true wave
> change. We may have several months of few cases. That would
> suggest it could be like influenza, and come back with a very
> significant second wave late in the fall. ...

> The important thing is that we're not planning for the fact that
> we're going to see a very substantial part of the country becoming
> infected over the next 12-18 months, if we don't have a vaccine.
> We will never be blue and red again. We'll be covid
> colored."
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Trump and Xi have (almost) the same birthday--June 14, 15.
Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Guest wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:17 pm
As someone who lived in the Bay Area for 14 years before moving away in 2010, I have one piece of advice for those folks still living there: LEAVE.
Leave and never look back. Trust me on this. There is a whole country out there filled with affordable housing, beautiful scenery and good people whose minds haven't been polluted by Twitter nonsense or identity politics.
And for the record, now that more and more companies have discovered the benefits of remote workers and the associated cost savings, I see the California exodus accelerating in the coming years.
No, no! The rest of the country is awful! Full of racists and xenophobes who will try to murder you in your sleep!

Stop encouraging people to export the failed values of the Bay area to places not yet ruined.
Rajput

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Rajput »

RocketMan - Whose gonna defend me in the comments section?🤷‍♂️
Pakistanis - At your service master🙋‍♂️
Rajput

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Rajput »

I told u all China 🇨🇳 , N. Korea will start WW3 during pandemic also ......
Rajput

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Rajput »

BREAKING: South Korea says North Korea blew up an inter-Korean liaison office amid rising tensions between the rivals.
guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by guest »

Rajput wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:34 am BREAKING: South Korea says North Korea blew up an inter-Korean liaison office amid rising tensions between the rivals.
World war 3 is coming 💣💣💣💥💥💥
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I wonder who's encouraging NK...

C...h...i...n...a...
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

People here are dishonest.
South Korea the western puppets have provoked the North.,They have been sending leaflets on hotbloons for the last week or so.
I totally blame the south. Stop being used by your white masters and try to live on peace with your own kind.
America has successfully turned brothers against one another.
Japan against China.
North against south.
China against Hongkong and Taiwan
Now the whole south China sea and America want war in that par of the world.
Arabs against one another.
The white man has really divided and ruled everyone.
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