Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Yes we went from the projects to mini housing bubbles as it is said. The difference is debt. Big difference in the contextual pages of history. We all know the Demacles in which the theme is that virtue is sufficient for living a happy life from the Cicero allegory and his fate was true Empire.
http://penelope.uchicago.edu/~grout/enc ... icero.html
If you consider the discussion as of late the taxpayer is not amused. Given the overall scope the disconnect in the meme when all else fails they will do the right thing was Churchhills linkage to America since he had a American Mother. FDR conveyed you are bound to assist your neighbor to lend your hose to put out the fire. Unsustainable tragectory's are real and this is not a plea to current events at hand. Since Americans have this fixation with themselves to a abnormal sick political amnesia the Spartan women would demand victory or come home on your sheild if you cannot carry it home. Athenian Women had little say to actual events. The point is abnormal attachment to position. We see it in Corporate and Governmental demeanor. I will give the President credit on his statement to bend the trend. I did not vote for the guy but it is damn job to make the buck soley his issue. We have noted also, have many others the taxpayers ability to understand the difference between confidence and arrogated direction ongoing. To back up a notch as I fully consider the Voter culpable in this epic failure of leadership. If the roots are deseased the plant dies. Period, and yes this time it will be very different. The supplied .gif is a list of failed social housing and billion's, then just like today. And who is left or will work today? To be honest most Americans think they have lost there mind since understanding latency is akin to disconnected reality by choice of condition. Time will gauge better than today's conveyance.

Reading a few Armstrong missives today sounds kind of familiar.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Cl ... 5-2011.pdf

Martin Armstrong wrote:However, the system is far too dynamic and the best efforts or aspirations cannot control what they do not understand. By trying to create the PERFECT TRADE with no risk, they are themselves creating a variation of Marxism in the private sector that is opposed to free markets. That is my BEEF with the Investment Bankers. I see them as evil and they hate my guts because they think they are entitled to rig the game.

Martin Armstrong wrote:The solutions are very easy. Getting there is the problem. You have to stop the borrowing and that means you have to get rid of the whole concept of investment banks controlling Congress.

In another one he mentions how earthquakes and other natural disasters have economic outcomes.

Meanwhile, 450,000 jobs in state and local governments have vanished since 2008, when those levels of government began to fall into fiscal crisis (Norris 2011). Now the states will have difficulty replacing the $150 billion in extra funding that was sent by Washington as part of the 2009 stimulus package (Lowenstein 2011). Further state tax increases would hinder the effort to restore full employment and have their greatest impact on residents of the most economically depressed areas.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/ ... TK20110511

What we do convey here what they cannot. I do think more "souls" are walking away. And nature "choice" does play more of a role than today's mind wishes. One third of America is in severe drought. I asked some older souls what is there opinion. They were very direct, and conveyed that they are educated above there ability to listen. A study published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin suggests that when a group is without a leader, you can often count on a narcissist to try and take charge of nothing that is in scope of Business. The meaning was 2 to 16 percent are grouped as narcissist's.
Mental choices of a class was the point. The Statist's are last to understand. Hadrian understood even if his ethic was very bent. He was a sexual deviant but the Empire was managed sound or you were done lets say.

After 133 BC it fell under Roman control. It suffered greatly during the Mithridatic Wars but quickly recovered under the dominion of Rome; and towards the end of the Roman Republic and under the first emperors, Laodicea, benefiting from its advantageous position on a trade route, became one of the most important and flourishing commercial cities of Asia Minor, in which large money transactions and an extensive trade in black wool were carried. The place often suffered from earthquakes, especially from the great shock in the reign of Nero (60 AD), in which it was completely destroyed. But the inhabitants declined imperial assistance to rebuild the city and restored it from their own means.

It received from Rome the title of free city. During the Roman period Laodicea was the chief city of a Roman conventus, which comprised twenty-four cities besides itself; Cicero records holding assizes there ca. 50 BC.
We are told in Revelation 3 of the 7 Churches. The last church or church age is symbolized by the Church of Laodicea. Laodicea means "the rights of the people." Thus, this was a church governed by the will of the people, rather than the will of God. This is the church age from which the Antichrist and the False Prophet will emerge. It is the church age Paul talked about that would not endure sound doctrine. Many of Laodicea's inhabitants were Jews, and Cicero records that Flaccus confiscated the considerable sum of 9 kg of gold which was being sent annually to Jerusalem for the Temple (Pro Flacco 28-68).
I continue to monitor the church's faithfulness to the teaching of the Word of God, realizing that the church of the last days will be marked by apostasy and a falling away. This does not mean that God is not moving and doing great things but can we identify the wolves in sheep's clothing in the spirit of our age.
Remember, we teach at Home for a reason and the Wolves will never understand nor care. As we are Banks and Governments will give political contributions to Socialist lawmakers members to vote in favor of giving the country away. One thing I do know if those in need are adulterated the consequeces will be certain disaster.

Notes:
The term conventus is lastly applied to certain bodies of Roman citizens living in a province, forming a sort of corporation, and representing the Roman people in their district or town; and it was from among these that proconsuls generally took their assistants. Such corporations are repeatedly mentioned, as, for example, at Syracuse (Cic. in Verr. II.13, 29, III.13, IV.25, 31, V.36, &c.), Capua (Caes. De Bell. Civ. I.14; Cic. p. Sext. 4), Salona (Caes. De Bell. Civ. III.9), Puteoli (Cic. in Vat. 5), and Corduba (Caes. De Bell. Civ. II.19; cf. Provincia).

http://www.hsdent.com/The_Dent_Methods# ... 0Indicator

I think we can boil it down to Dent's thought. I think we have a problem with the demographic
spending in context to going into his new wave spending theory because it will take longer to assimilate
the demand he intuitively asserts. Some of His work is pretty spot on so discounting it is opinion.
I am in the camp of what do you consider progress?
Old53 does convey the element of past American progress. I understand his view but do not see
the progression path even moving as yet. I did hear carmageddon was not a issue in a bridge
repair topic in California so who know what the next 5 to 10 years will do. Like we already
know the products are already here but our society is behind not the actual technology making it.
We have kids mid stream in some pretty tough career steps so it not like we are in the dark.
Twenty plus years is another story tho.
Productivity is what controls product streams today not said demands. I assume growth is the bulls
eye we are seeking and that is going to wait some time. It still boils down to longer term views
we are seeing in longer term contract awards onward given market metrics on quality driven
facts in segements already.

The Deception Takes Form - The Seven-Year Plan

With the consolidation of Khrushchev's rule in 1957, one could sense a great rolling up of sleeves. There was enthusiasm, lightly leavened by reality, for the Soviet Union's potential. Khrushchev's first major task was to get in order an economy, which was showing signs of slowing down. To jump start the Soviet economy, Soviet planners used the "proven" Stalinist economic planning structure, modifying its form to accommodate the seven-year planning cycle, but not its content, which projected ambitious goals in agriculture, industry, energy, consumer consumption and of course defense. Soviet historian Roy Medvedev summarized the new direction:
The main problems considered were those of the country's economic development in the coming seven years. The control figures given in Khrushchev's report were most impressive. It was proposed to increase gross industrial production by 80%. Engineering production by 100 per cent, the output of electric power by 120 percent and that of the chemical industry by 300 per cent... The share of oil and gas in the country's fuel and power balance was to increase from 31 to 51 percent,....
The economic plan was approved during the January 1959 Extraordinary Congress (27 January- 5 February 1959). It was a heady, exciting moment in the march of Communism. All too soon though the component annexes of the plan began failing, some sooner, others enduring to the end. Ultimately only the defense plan endured until the collapse of the Soviet State.
Cycles: We are today just seeing another spin cycle. What have we learned per cycle. The moral vacuum seen reflects the nature observed that some of us conveyed as the study of futility. Namely to balance in a finite world. Overall the progress faded which was IMO a control burn.

The facts pan out here since the mid sixty's when it was noted in aggregate trend capital movement here and before that all government's are pissing contests and they tell the taxpayer it's raining.
OLD1953 correcly notes: Commodities collapse will kill emerging markets. China is no longer emerging, for the most part, they've arrived. Ending speculation in commodities will result in deflation being evident to everyone, but will also end the speculative bubbles in commodities

Washington has no plan, Moscow has no plan, Peking has no plan since what do they do? Sort out bad guys? Move to regions internally for growth. We noted here that GM funded a surburb of Moscow car plant, and then we had to fund them, we all know this, so we see a leveling to parity even if we want to admit it or not it is happening. As Higgy conveys what Martin see's we know it is true and we will just have to wait even tho we know what will happen. That is the cycle we are in. The rest is noise, and they know it anyway. Agenda's always exist and it is just keeping the lemmings and sheep content. How can Washington have a plan for over 40 or 50 years of run away exansions. I am not saying that is bad. I have lived the analog to digital integration just as you have. Moderate views are always attacked and the hill is just what you would expect of some arrogated interests we have discussed. Growth can happen and truly things will have to sort themselves out and as many Americans already know Governments are not really a Historical solution. We have noted the mechanism the FED utilizes to promote credit for growth and the references in time it was enabled. I am not pessimistic in nature but balance must be forwarded since the march in inflationary debt retirement as a tool is its own demise of monetary structure.

Now we have the other side of the coin for a number of years already.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-g ... 29900.html

Today the technology favors decentralization in many respects but the politics and economics are not adjusting and collapse is the result. Large complex organizations can be replicated due to greater raw computing power and less need for manpower and physical infrastructure. The computing power can be used to link the various parts. This may be the primary reason the Eurozone was a failure as constructed. The US situation is now similar. The function of the Fed can be replicated and tailored to local economies. Local currencies can be issued and managed according to those needs. The currencies can be computer linked at a central hub. The national currency would be used to interface at the borders. It could be a basket of regional currencies. The Euro need be no different. The Eurozone ignored the external forces and is paying the price. The US can ride on the Euro collapse for awhile but the reality doesn't change; it becomes more obvious.

If understood correctly, GDP can grow through expansion of population and resource usage to create output, increases in efficiency, or temporary increases in debt that are beyond the naturally constrained level of output. Our so called growth now appears to be entirely of the third category - temporary increases in debt. The ceiling has now been hit and the ratings agencies are calling a halt. US births peaked in the 1957 to 1961 time frame and since then the government has been trying to artifically maintain the birth rate decline through an open border and illegal immigration policy. If the economy continues to deteriorate, continuation of that policy will likely lead to civil unrest which will then render another quick fix unproductive on the whole. In addition to being population constrained, the US is also resource constrained as domestic oil production has declined for decades and the aquifers deplete as we are all aware. The use of debt to maintain output and status quo has limited the ability of the private sector to go down the only remaining road available to increase real output, which is increases in efficiency. As I mentioned months and years ago, the Romans had a basic industrial society coming into form with the conception of the steam engine and water wheels in operation throughout Europe. This was aborted in the decline and fall and only came into being 14 centuries later in a new world halfway around the globe. As Rome declined and fell, it is thought infanticide became accepted practice perhaps similar to abortion becoming accepted practice in the US, as Roe v Wade corresponds to the peak in US domestic oil production, the dissolution of Bretton Woods (the international gold standard) and the rise of parasitic arbitrage and derivatives trading.

The above describes some constraints that need to be worked around to move forward: resource contraints broadly and energy in particular, social reconstruction to move away from past mistakes and advancement to assimilate the new technologies, and simlar political reconstruction.

Higher prices have put US oil production on the upswing again. Even with the decline in production in the Gulf (demonstration of actual risks vs theory caused underwriters to stop a lot of drilling there) we are up a good bit. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crp ... blpd_a.htm

It's probably amusing to note that we are still over half our peak oil production rate in the US. We take a licking and keep on pumping!
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... RFPUS2&f=A

What's driving that of course is enhanced recovery techniques from old fields. It's slow, but it just keeps on coming out.

Dear John
Thanks a lot for good coperation. Best regards....


stock market today

“Capital spending for the quarter was $25 million with approximately 60% of the spending attributable to Specialty Chemical segments and 40% to Engineered Materials, versus $25 million spent in the second quarter of 2010. We are revising our outlook for full year capital spending to a range of $120 to $130 million down from our previous guidance of $170 to $190 million. The decrease is the result of several expansion projects moved into 2012.”

April 7, 2011, 8:39 AM ET Wall Street Journal.
Measuring the gap between an economy’s current output and its potential output if it were at full employment is tricky, even treacherous. The history of measuring these output gaps accurately is awful, and relying on faulty estimates has led central banks astray. But the concept remains a key part of modern central banking. The larger the output gap, the theory goes, the less likely inflationary pressures are to emerge.
Economists at Goldman Sachs — relying on government, OECD and their own calculations — say: “The output gap is larger in the US (at around 6% of GDP) than it is in the Euro-zone, Japan and the UK (each between 3% and 4% of GDP).”

Long dry summer ahead

aedens wrote: "The larger the output gap, the theory goes, the less likely inflationary pressures are to emerge.
Economists at Goldman Sachs — relying on government, OECD and their own calculations — say: “The output gap is larger in the US (at around 6% of GDP) than it is in the Euro-zone, Japan and the UK (each between 3% and 4% of GDP).”

My theory would be different from the establishment theory. It would instead start by asking where inflation is relative to where it would be had the Central Bank not intervened. By my calculations, this "inflation gap" is large. Prices are a LOT higher than they would be had the Central Bank not intervened. Due to this large "inflation gap" the entrepreneurs have shut down as you note. This is why the "output gap" is larger than it should be. The more the Fed intervenes to try to reduce the "output gap", the larger the "inflation gap" will become, which will in turn increase the "output gap". I would project that by the time the US government figures this out U-6 unemployment will be 50% (it's already about 16%), the employment-population ratio will be at the lowest point since data tracking began and 110 million Americans will either be on food stamps (if food stamps still exist) or they will be starving.