Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

mooreupp wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:57 am > On the 3%, I think that will prove to be a underestimation. When
> they did random antibody tests in different places in the US and
> elsewhere in April and May, we were getting at least 10x as many
> people infected as official totals everywhere, sometimes far more.
> I suspect that has probably decreased some with additional
> testing, but is also probably far higher in areas of the world
> where testing is rare. The CDC did come on board with saying 10x
> as many (although it didn't exactly make big news).
> https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/06/2 ... idis-says/

> The US is a bit shy of 3 million confirmed cases. That 10x number
> if it holds would put us close to 30 million already infected in
> America which is almost a 1/10 the population. That's mostly good
> news as it means the mortality rate on this is also a fraction of
> advertised and we are further along on this than most suspect
> (although we will probably never actually get rid of this).

> Further, there is actually a bit more good news in the numbers.
> We've had evidence people have cross-immunity from other diseases
> in this (other coronaviruses or something that helps out). I've
> seen suggestions from people I trust with numbers that it seems to
> be holding up near half the population (whether that is permanent
> protection or short term I do not know though). Given the R0 is
> estimated around a 3.0 in a completely vulnerable population, we
> need around 2/3 the population to be immune for herd immunity.
> Well if 1/2 the population already is (at least short term), then
> we only need around 17% of the population to get it (plus or minus
> depending on location) to get herd immunity.

> That makes sense with other numbers we've seen. The hard hit
> areas seem to be topping out at 20% and then the spread slows. My
> personal guess is New York City is already at herd immunity.
> Decreased social distancing there would create a spike in cases,
> but it would be impossible to get the runaway one like
> before.

Navigator wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:28 pm If 10% of the US population has WuHu flu (covid), then we are approaching the Diamond Princess infection rates, which means we would be close to having everyone get it who is going to get it.

Millenial83 wrote: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:53 am > wow John, you've certainly gotten very sensitive lately. I'll take
> it as a compliment as when you're taking this much fire you're
> usually right over the target.